Browsing by Author "Beever, Erik A."

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Antecedent climatic conditions spanning several years influence multiple land-surface phenology events in semi-arid environments
(Frontiers Media SA, 2022-10) Wood, David J. A.; Stoy, Paul C.; Powell, Scott L.; Beever, Erik A.
Ecological processes are complex, often exhibiting non-linear, interactive, or hierarchical relationships. Furthermore, models identifying drivers of phenology are constrained by uncertainty regarding predictors, interactions across scales, and legacy impacts of prior climate conditions. Nonetheless, measuring and modeling ecosystem processes such as phenology remains critical for management of ecological systems and the social systems they support. We used random forest models to assess which combination of climate, location, edaphic, vegetation composition, and disturbance variables best predict several phenological responses in three dominant land cover types in the U.S. Northwestern Great Plains (NWP). We derived phenological measures from the 25-year series of AVHRR satellite data and characterized climatic predictors (i.e., multiple moisture and/or temperature based variables) over seasonal and annual timeframes within the current year and up to 4 years prior. We found that antecedent conditions, from seasons to years before the current, were strongly associated with phenological measures, apparently mediating the responses of communities to current-year conditions. For example, at least one measure of antecedent-moisture availability [precipitation or vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] over multiple years was a key predictor of all productivity measures. Variables including longer-term lags or prior year sums, such as multi-year-cumulative moisture conditions of maximum VPD, were top predictors for start of season. Productivity measures were also associated with contextual variables such as soil characteristics and vegetation composition. Phenology is a key process that profoundly affects organism-environment relationships, spatio-temporal patterns in ecosystem structure and function, and other ecosystem dynamics. Phenology, however, is complex, and is mediated by lagged effects, interactions, and a diversity of potential drivers; nonetheless, the incorporation of antecedent conditions and contextual variables can improve models of phenology.
Connecting research and practice to enhance the evolutionary potential of species under climate change
(Wiley, 2023-01) Thompson, Laura M. et al.; Beever, Erik A.
Resource managers have rarely accounted for evolutionary dynamics in the design or implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. We brought the research and management communities together to identify challenges and opportunities for applying evidence from evolutionary science to support on-the-ground actions intended to enhance species' evolutionary potential. We amalgamated input from natural-resource practitioners and interdisciplinary scientists to identify information needs, current knowledge that can fill those needs, and future avenues for research. Three focal areas that can guide engagement include: (1) recognizing when to act, (2) understanding the feasibility of assessing evolutionary potential, and (3) identifying best management practices. Although researchers commonly propose using molecular methods to estimate genetic diversity and gene flow as key indicators of evolutionary potential, we offer guidance on several additional attributes (and their proxies) that may also guide decision-making, particularly in the absence of genetic data. Finally, we outline existing decision-making frameworks that can help managers compare alternative strategies for supporting evolutionary potential, with the goal of increasing the effective use of evolutionary information, particularly for species of conservation concern. We caution, however, that arguing over nuance can generate confusion; instead, dedicating increased focus on a decision-relevant evidence base may better lend itself to climate adaptation actions.
Evaluating mechanisms of plant-mediated effects on herbivore persistence and occupancy across an ecoregion
(2019-06) Wilkening, Jennifer L.; Cole, Evan J.; Beever, Erik A.
Contemporary climate change is rapidly creating one of the greatest challenges for management and conservation during the 21st century. Mountain ecosystems, which have a high degree of spatial heterogeneity and contain numerous habitat specialists, have been identified as particularly vulnerable. We used data from multiple years across sites spanning a >40 million ha ecoregion to test hypotheses regarding how community‐level characteristics of vegetation may affect a mammalian generalist herbivore, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We examined patterns of pika persistence across sites in the hydrographic Great Basin, and occupancy within a subset of these sites. We used mixed‐effects logistic regression models to compare evidence in support of competing explanations for each pattern within an information–theoretic framework (using Akaike's information criterion). Models reflected four hypothesized classes of mechanisms related to nutritional ecology, ecosystem function, indirect indication of climatic effects, and (synergistic) combinations of these three classes. At the site level, models reflecting synergistic effects received the most support. At the within‐site level, support appeared to be split equally among hypotheses containing predictors related to either nutritional ecology or indirect climate effects. Well‐supported predictors included cover of invasive plant species, cover of more‐xeric plant species, species evenness, and proportion of graminoid species. Our results both (1) identify important aspects of vegetation communities that may influence herbivore distribution in mountainous areas across a large, diverse geographic region, and (2) contribute to an improved understanding of how mountain ecosystems may be affected by ongoing climate change, more broadly.
Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates
(2017-03) Mathewson, Paul D.; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A.; Briscoe, Natalie J.; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M.; Porter, Warren P.
How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 Â°C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.
Niche shifts and energetic condition of songbirds in response to phenology of food-resource availability in a high-elevation sagebrush ecosystem
(2016-06) Cutting, Kyle A.; Anderson, Michelle L.; Beever, Erik A.; Schroff, Sean R.; Klaphake, Eric; Korb, Nathan; McWilliams, Scott
Seasonal fluctuations in food availability can affect diets of consumers, which in turn may influence the physiological state of individuals and shape intra- and inter-specific patterns of resource use. High-elevation ecosystems often exhibit a pronounced seasonal “pulse” in productivity, although few studies document how resource use and energetic condition by avian consumers change in relation to food-resource availability in these ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that seasonal increases (pulses) in food resources in high-elevation sagebrush ecosystems result in 2 changes after the pulse, relative to the before-pulse period: (1) reduced diet breadth of, and overlap between, 2 sympatric sparrow species; and (2) enhanced energetic condition in both species. We tracked breeding-season diets using stable isotopes and energetic condition using plasma metabolites of Brewer's Sparrows (Spizella breweri), Vesper Sparrows (Pooecetes gramineus), and their food resources during 2011, and of only Brewer's Sparrows and their food resources during 2013. We quantify diet breadth and overlap between both species, along with coincident physiological consequences of temporal changes in resource use. After invertebrate biomass increased following periods of rainfall in 2011, dietary breadth decreased by 35% in Brewer's Sparrows and by 48% in Vesper Sparrows, while dietary overlap decreased by 88%. Energetic condition of both species increased when dietary overlap was lower and diet breadth decreased, after the rapid rise of food-resource availability. However, energetic condition of Brewer's Sparrows remained constant in 2013, a year with low precipitation and lack of a strong pulse in food resources, even though the species' dietary breadth again decreased that year. Our results indicate that diet breadth and overlap in these sparrow species inhabiting sagebrush ecosystems generally varied as predicted in relation to intra- and interannual changes in food resources, and this difference in diet was associated with improved energetic condition of sparrows at least in one year.
Pika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region
(2016-12) Beever, Erik A.; Perrine, John D.; Rickman, Tom; Flores, Mary; Clark, John P.; Waters, Cassie; Weber, Shana S.; Yardley, Braden; Thoma, David; Goehring, Kenneth E.; Magnuson, Michael; Nordensten, Nancy; Nelson, Melissa; Collins, Gail H.
Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994-2013) and historical (1898-1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss-local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade \mainland\" portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika\'s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals."
Predictors of Current and Longer-Term Patterns of Abundance of American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) across a Leading-Edge Protected Area
(2016-11) Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A.; Johnson, Douglas H; Biel, Mark; Belt, Jami J.
American pikas (Ochotona princeps) have been heralded as indicators of montane-mammal response to contemporary climate change. Pikas no longer occupy the driest and lowest-elevation sites in numerous parts of their geographic range. Conversely, pikas have exhibited higher rates of occupancy and persistence in Rocky Mountain and Sierra Nevada montane \'mainlands\'. Research and monitoring efforts on pikas across the western USA have collectively shown the nuance and complexity with which climate will often act on species in diverse topographic and climatic contexts. However, to date no studies have investigated habitat, distribution, and abundance of pikas across hundreds of sites within a remote wilderness area. Additionally, relatively little is known about whether climate acts most strongly on pikas through direct or indirect (e.g., vegetation-mediated) mechanisms. During 2007-2009, we collectively hiked >16,000 km throughout the 410,077-ha Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, in an effort to identify topographic, microrefugial, and vegetative characteristics predictive of pika abundance. We identified 411 apparently pika-suitable habitat patches with binoculars (in situ), and surveyed 314 of them for pika signs. Ranking of alternative logistic-regression models based on AICc scores revealed that short-term pika abundances were positively associated with intermediate elevations, greater cover of mosses, and taller forbs, and decreased each year, for a total decline of 68% during the three-year study; whereas longer-term abundances were associated only with static variables (longitude, elevation, gradient) and were lower on north-facing slopes. Earlier Julian date and time of day of the survey (i.e., midday vs. not) were associated with lower observed pika abundance. We recommend that wildlife monitoring account for this seasonal and diel variation when surveying pikas. Broad-scale information on status and abundance determinants of montane mammals, especially for remote protected areas, is crucial for land and wildlife-resource managers trying to anticipate mammalian responses to climate change.