Browsing by Author "Berwald, Jesse"

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Predicting High-Codimension Critical Transitions In Dynamical Systems Using Active Learning
(2013-05) Spendlove, Kelly T.; Berwald, Jesse; Gedeon, Tomas
Complex dynamical systems, from those appearing in physiology and ecology to Earth system modelling, often experience critical transitions in their behaviour due to potentially minute changes in their parameters. While the focus of much recent work, predicting such bifurcations is still notoriously difficult. We propose an active learning approach to the classification of parameter space of dynamical systems for which the codimension of bifurcations is high. Using elementary notions regarding the dynamics, in combination with the nearest-neighbour algorithm and Conley index theory to classify the dynamics at a predefined scale, we are able to predict with high accuracy the boundaries between regions in parameter space that produce critical transitions.
Using machine learning to predict catastrophes in dynamical systems
(2012-03) Berwald, Jesse; Gedeon, Tomas; Sheppard, John W.
Nonlinear dynamical systems, which include models of the Earth’s climate, financial markets and complex ecosystems, often undergo abrupt transitions that lead to radically different behavior. The ability to predict such qualitative and potentially disruptive changes is an important problem with far-reaching implications. Even with robust mathematical models, predicting such critical transitions prior to their occurrence is extremely difficult. In this work, we propose a machine learning method to study the parameter space of a complex system, where the dynamics is coarsely characterized using topological invariants. We show that by using a nearest neighbor algorithm to sample the parameter space in a specific manner, we are able to predict with high accuracy the locations of critical transitions in parameter space.