Browsing by Author "Garrott, Robert A."

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Assessing respiratory pathogen communities in bighorn sheep populations: Sampling realities, challenges, and improvements
(2017-07) Butler, Carson J.; Edwards, William H.; Jennings-Gaines, Jessica E.; Killion, Halcyon J.; Wood, Mary E.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; Paterson, J. Terrill; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Almberg, Emily S.; White, Patrick J.; Rotella, Jay J.; Garrott, Robert A.
Respiratory disease has been a persistent problem for the recovery of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), but has uncertain etiology. The disease has been attributed to several bacterial pathogens including Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae and Pasteurellaceae pathogens belonging to the Mannheimia, Bibersteinia, and Pasteurella genera. We estimated detection probability for these pathogens using protocols with diagnostic tests offered by a fee-for-service laboratory and not offered by a fee-for-service laboratory. We conducted 2861 diagnostic tests on swab samples collected from 476 bighorn sheep captured across Montana and Wyoming to gain inferences regarding detection probability, pathogen prevalence, and the power of different sampling methodologies to detect pathogens in bighorn sheep populations. Estimated detection probability using fee-for-service protocols was less than 0.50 for all Pasteurellaceae and 0.73 for Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae. Non-fee-for-service Pasteurellaceae protocols had higher detection probabilities, but no single protocol increased detection probability of all Pasteurellaceae pathogens to greater than 0.50. At least one protocol resulted in an estimated detection probability of 0.80 for each pathogen except Mannheimia haemolytica, for which the highest detection probability was 0.45. In general, the power to detect Pasteurellaceae pathogens at low prevalence in populations was low unless many animals were sampled or replicate samples were collected per animal. Imperfect detection also resulted in low precision when estimating prevalence for any pathogen. Low and variable detection probabilities for respiratory pathogens using live-sampling protocols may lead to inaccurate conclusions regarding pathogen community dynamics and causes of bighorn sheep respiratory disease epizootics. We recommend that agencies collect multiples samples per animal for Pasteurellaceae detection, and one sample for Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae detection from at least 30 individuals to reliably detect both Pasteurellaceae and Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae at the population-level. Availability of PCR diagnostic tests to wildlife management agencies would improve the ability to reliably detect Pasteurellaceae in bighorn sheep populations.
Birth dates vary with fixed and dynamic maternal features, offspring sex, and extreme climatic events in a high-latitude marine mammal
(2016-02) Rotella, Jay J.; Paterson, J. Terrill; Garrott, Robert A.
Reproductive synchrony tends to be widespread in diverse species of plants and animals, especially at higher latitudes. However, for long-lived mammals, birth dates for different individuals can vary by weeks within a population. A mother\'s birth timing can reveal useful information about her reproductive abilities and have important implications for the characteristics and survival of her offspring. Despite this, our current knowledge of factors associated with variation in birth dates is modest. We used long-term data for known-age Weddell seals in Antarctica and a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to study how birth dates varied with fixed and temporally varying features of mothers, whether sex allocation varied with birth timing, and annual variation in birth dates. Based on birth dates for 4465 pups born to 1117 mothers aged 4-31, we found that diverse features of mothers were associated with variation in birth dates. Maternal identity was the most important among these. Unlike most studies, which have reported that birth dates occur earlier as mothers age, we found that birth dates progressively occurred earlier in the year in the early part of a mother\'s reproductive life, reached a minimum at age 16, and then occurred later at later ages. Birth dates were positively related to a mother\'s age at primiparity and recent reproductive effort. The earliest birth dates were for pups born to prime-age mothers who did not reproduce in the previous year but began reproduction early in life, suggesting that females in the best condition gave birth earlier than others. If so, our finding that male pups tended to be born earlier than females provides support for the Trivers-Willard sex-allocation model. Average birth dates were quite consistent across years, except for 2 years that had notable delays and occurred during the period when massive icebergs were present and disrupted the ecosystem.
Environmental correlates of temporary emigration for female Weddell seals and consequences for recruitment
(Ecological Society of America, 2014) Stauffer, Glenn E.; Rotella, Jay J.; Garrott, Robert A.; Kendall, William
In colonial-breeding species, prebreeders often emigrate temporarily from natal reproductive colonies then subsequently return for one or more years before producing young. Variation in attendance–nonattendance patterns can have implications for subsequent recruitment. We used open robust-design multistate models and 28 years of encounter data for prebreeding female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii [Lesson]) to evaluate hypotheses about (1) the relationships of temporary emigration (TE) probabilities to environmental and population size covariates and (2) motivations for attendance and consequences of nonattendance for subsequent probability of recruitment to the breeding population. TE probabilities were density dependent (ˆerrors of population size in the previous year) and increased when the fast-ice...
Evaluating wildlife translocations using genomics: A bighorn sheep case study
(Wiley, 2020-12) Flesch, Elizabeth P.; Graves, Tabitha A.; Thomson, Jennifer M.; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Stephenson, Thomas R.; Garrott, Robert A.
Wildlife restoration often involves translocation efforts to reintroduce species and supplement small, fragmented populations. We examined the genomic consequences of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) translocations and population isolation to enhance understanding of evolutionary processes that affect population genetics and inform future restoration strategies. We conducted a population genomic analysis of 511 bighorn sheep from 17 areas, including native and reintroduced populations that received 0–10 translocations. Using the Illumina High Density Ovine array, we generated datasets of 6,155 to 33,289 single nucleotide polymorphisms and completed clustering, population tree, and kinship analyses. Our analyses determined that natural gene flow did not occur between most populations, including two pairs of native herds that had past connectivity. We synthesized genomic evidence across analyses to evaluate 24 different translocation events and detected eight successful reintroductions (i.e., lack of signal for recolonization from nearby populations) and five successful augmentations (i.e., reproductive success of translocated individuals) based on genetic similarity with the source populations. A single native population founded six of the reintroduced herds, suggesting that environmental conditions did not need to match for populations to persist following reintroduction. Augmentations consisting of 18–57 animals including males and females succeeded, whereas augmentations of two males did not result in a detectable genetic signature. Our results provide insight on genomic distinctiveness of native and reintroduced herds, information on the relative success of reintroduction and augmentation efforts and their associated attributes, and guidance to enhance genetic contribution of augmentations and reintroductions to aid in bighorn sheep restoration
Evidence of an Absence of Inbreeding Depression in a Wild Population of Weddell Seals (Leptonychotes weddellii)
(MDPI AG, 2023-02) Powell, John H.; Kalinowski, Steven T.; Taper, Mark L.; Rotella, Jay J.; Davis, Corey S.; Garrott, Robert A.
Inbreeding depression can reduce the viability of wild populations. Detecting inbreeding depression in the wild is difficult; developing accurate estimates of inbreeding can be time and labor intensive. In this study, we used a two-step modeling procedure to incorporate uncertainty inherent in estimating individual inbreeding coefficients from multilocus genotypes into estimates of inbreeding depression in a population of Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii). The two-step modeling procedure presented in this paper provides a method for estimating the magnitude of a known source of error, which is assumed absent in classic regression models, and incorporating this error into inferences about inbreeding depression. The method is essentially an errors-in-variables regression with non-normal errors in both the dependent and independent variables. These models, therefore, allow for a better evaluation of the uncertainty surrounding the biological importance of inbreeding depression in non-pedigreed wild populations. For this study we genotyped 154 adult female seals from the population in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, at 29 microsatellite loci, 12 of which are novel. We used a statistical evidence approach to inference rather than hypothesis testing because the discovery of both low and high levels of inbreeding are of scientific interest. We found evidence for an absence of inbreeding depression in lifetime reproductive success, adult survival, age at maturity, and the reproductive interval of female seals in this population.
Female Weddell seals show flexible strategies of colony attendance related to varying environmental conditions
(2015-02) Rotella, Jay J.; Chambert, T. C.; Garrott, Robert A.
Many animal life cycles involve movements among different habitats to fulfill varying resource demands. There are inherent costs associated with such movements, and the decision to leave or stay at a given location ought to be motivated by the benefits associated with potential target habitats. Because movement patterns, especially those associated with reproduction, can have important implications for the success (survival, reproduction) of individual animals, and therefore a population's dynamics, it is important to identify and understand their sources of variation (environmental and individual). Here, using a mark–recapture, multistate modeling approach, we investigated a set of a priori hypotheses regarding sources and patterns of variation in breeding-colony attendance for Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii) females on sabbatical from pup production. For such females, colony attendance might be motivated by predation avoidance and positive social interactions related to reproduction, but some costs, such as reduced foraging opportunities or aggressive interactions with conspecifics, might also exist. We expected these benefits and costs to vary with a female's condition and the environment. Results revealed that the probability of being absent from colonies was higher (1) in years when the extent of local sea ice was larger, (2) for the youngest and oldest individuals, and (3) for females with less reproductive experience. We also found substantial levels of residual individual heterogeneity in these rates. Based on our a priori predictions, we postulate that the decision to attend breeding colonies or not is directly influenced by an individual's physiological condition, as well as by the ice-covered distance to good foraging areas, availability of predator-free haul-out sites, and the level of negative interactions with conspecifics inside colonies. Our results support the idea that in iteroparous species, and colonial animals in particular, seasonal and temporary movements from/to reproductive sites represent flexible behavioral strategies that can play an important role in coping with environmental variability.
Heterogeneity and Power to Detect Trends in Moose Browse Utilization of Willow Communities
(2017-11) Burkholder, Braden O.; DeCesare, Nicholas J.; Garrott, Robert A.; Boccadori, Sylvanna J.
Monitoring of browse utilization of plant communities is consistently recommended as an important component of monitoring moose (Alces alces) populations across regions. We monitored winter browse utilization by moose within a willow (Salix spp.) -dominated winter range of Montana in 2008-2010. We sought to improve our understanding of: 1) spatiotemporal heterogeneity of intensity of moose browsing across the winter range, 2) species-specific selection of willow by moose during winter, and 3) appropriate sample sizes, placement, and stratification of monitoring sites for estimating browse utilization. During 3 consecutive winters we monitored 108-111 transect segments, each 50 m in length, in a systematic distribution across willow communities and assessed the effects of covariates potentially predictive of variation in browsing. Mean annual estimated browse utilization across all segments was 11.5% of sampled twigs in 2008 (95% CI = 9.4 - 13.7%), 8.0% in 2009 (95% CI = 6.2 - 9.8%), and 8.3% in 2010 (95% CI = 6.5 - 10.1%). Modeling of variation in browse utilization revealed positive relationships with the proportion of preferred species ([beta] = 0.44, P = 0.05) and previously browsed willow plants ([beta] = 3.13, P < 0.001), and a negative relationship with willow patch width ([beta] = -0.002, P < 0.001). We found that planeleaf (Salix planifolia), Wolf\'s (S. wolfii), and Booth\'s willow (S. boothii) were the most consistently preferred species, whereas Drummond\'s (S. drummondiana) and Geyer willow (S. geyeriana) willow were moderately preferred; Lemmon\'s willow (S. lemmonii) was used less than expected. Power analyses indicated that detecting a 10% increase in browse utilization with 95% confidence in consecutive years required measuring 38-41, 50-m segments. Because systems with low and heterogeneous browse utilization of willow present challenges for efficient monitoring, we encourage power analyses as a means of evaluating sampling protocols, in addition to consideration of covariates predictive of spatiotemporal heterogeneity.
Investigating diverse sources of variation in the amount of time Weddell seal ( Leptonychotes weddellii ) pups spend in the water during the lactation period
(Wiley, 2022-07) Petch, Shane M.; Rotella, Jay J.; Link, William A.; Paterson, J. Terrill; Garrott, Robert A.
Field observations suggest that time spent in the water by Weddell seal pups during lactation varies among individuals, which could yield important developmental tradeoffs. We analyzed data from 713 pups born to 419 different mothers over 9 years to evaluate total time in the water, age at first entry, and potential sources of variation using temperature loggers attached to the rear flipper of pups. Pups first entered the water at 11–29 days of age (M = 14.9) and spent 4–204 hr (M = 69.3) in the water by 30 days of age. Age at first entry was earlier for pups with higher birth mass and mothers of above average reproductive experience. Total time in the water was related to maternal identity and greater for female pups and for pups that had higher birth mass, mothers of intermediate age, mothers that skipped reproduction in the previous year, and for pups that first entered the water at younger ages. Phenotypic traits explain observed variation in the development of a key life history behavior in the Weddell seal. Strong individual variation in time spent in metabolically costly swimming and diving might lead to variation in growth, energy stores, and survival and fitness outcomes.
Niche similarities among introduced and native mountain ungulates
(2018-07) Lowrey, Blake; Garrott, Robert A.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; White, Patrick J.; DeCesare, N. J.; Stewart, Shawn T.
The niche concept provides a strong foundation for theoretical and applied research among a broad range of disciplines. When two ecologically similar species are sympatric, theory predicts they will occupy distinct ecological niches to reduce competition. Capitalizing on the increasing availability of spatial data, we built from single species habitat suitability models to a multispecies evaluation of the niche partitioning hypothesis with sympatric mountain ungulates - native bighorn sheep (BHS; Ovis canadensis) and introduced mountain goats (MTG; Oreamnos americanus) in the northeast Greater Yellowstone Area. We characterized seasonal niches using two-stage resource selection functions with a used-available design and descriptive summaries of the niche attributes associated with used GPS locations. We evaluated seasonal similarity in niche space according to confidence interval overlap of model coefficients and similarity in geographic space by comparing model predicted values with Schoener\'s D metric. Our sample contained 37,962 summer locations from 53 individuals (BHS = 31, MTG = 22), and 79,984 winter locations from 57 individuals (BHS = 35, MTG = 22). Slope was the most influential niche component for both species and seasons, and showed the strongest evidence of niche partitioning. Bighorn sheep occurred on steeper slopes than mountain goats in summer and mountain goats occurred on steeper slopes in winter. The pattern of differential selection among species was less prevalent for the remaining covariates, indicating similarity in niche space. Model predictions in geographic space showed broad seasonal similarity (summer D = 0.88, winter D = 0.87), as did niche characterizations from used GPS locations. The striking similarities in seasonal niches suggest that introduced mountain goats will continue to increase their spatial overlap with native bighorn. Our results suggest that reducing densities of mountain goats in hunted areas where they are sympatric with bighorn sheep and impeding their expansion may reduce the possibility of competition and disease transfer.Additional studies that specifically investigate partitioning at finer scales and along dietary or temporal niche axes will help to inform an adaptive management approach.
Patterns of age-related change in reproductive effort differ in the pre-natal and post-natal periods in a long-lived mammal.
(2016-09) Paterson, J. Terrill; Rotella, Jay J.; Mannas, Jennifer M.; Garrott, Robert A.
Age-related changes in maternal reproductive allocation for long-lived species are a key prediction from life-history theory. Theoretical and empirical work suggests that allocation may increase with age due to constraint (increases with experience) or restraint (increases with age in the face of declining residual reproductive value), and may decrease among the oldest aged animals due to senescence in reproductive function. Here, we use a hierarchical modelling approach to investigate the age-related patterns of change in maternal reproductive effort in the Weddell seal, a long-lived marine mammal with a protracted period of maternal care during which mothers allocate a large proportion of body mass while feeding little. We find that maternal allocation increases with age for young mothers during both the pre-natal and post-natal periods. In contrast, older mothers demonstrate a senescent decline in pre-natal allocation but allocate more of their declining resources to their offspring during the post-natal period. We also find strong evidence for the importance of individual effects in reproductive allocation among mothers: some mothers consistently produce heavier (or lighter) pups than expected. Our results indicate that maternal allocation changes over a mother\'s reproductive life span and that age-specific differences differ in notable ways in pre-natal and post-natal periods.
Respiratory pathogens and their association with population performance in Montana and Wyoming bighorn sheep populations
(2018-11) Butler, Carson J.; Edwards, William H.; Paterson, J. Terrill; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Jennings-Gaines, Jessica E.; Killion, Halcyon J.; Wood, Mary E.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Almberg, Emily S.; Dewey, Sarah R.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; Courtemanch, Alyson B.; White, Patrick J.; Rotella, Jay J.; Garrott, Robert A.
At the request of National Park Service resource managers, we began a study in 2000 to evaluate causes for the decline of the bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) population inhabiting Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA), the Pryor Mountain Wild Horse Range, and surrounding state and U.S. Forest Service lands in Montana and Wyoming. Our study consisted of radio-collaring adult rams and ewes with mortality sensors to monitor adult mortalities, tracking ewes to determine pregnancy and lambing rates, habitat assessments to determine why the population was not expanding into what had been modeled using GIS methodology as suitable bighorn sheep habitat, measuring ungulate herbaceous consumption rates and herbaceous production to determine plant responses, and aerial and boat surveys to determine bighorn sheep population range and population dynamics (Schoenecker and others, this report). Two habitat suitability models were created and conducted (Gudorf, this report; Wockner and others, this report) using different methodologies, and comparisons made between the two. Herd population dynamics were modeled using the POP-II and POP-III programs (Roelle, this report), and a reassessment of ungulate exclosures that were established 8–10 years ago was conducted (Gerhardt, this report). The bighorn sheep population of the greater Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) was extirpated in the 1800s, and then reintroduced in 1973. The herd increased to a peak population of about 211 animals (Kissell and others, 1996), but then declined sharply in 1995 and 1996. Causes for the decline were unknown. Numbers have remained around 100 ± 20 animals since 1998. Previous modeling efforts determined what areas were suitable bighorn sheep habitat (Gudorf and others, 1996). We tried to determine why sheep were not using areas that were modeled as suitable or acceptable habitat, and to evaluate population dynamics of the herd.
Restoration Potential of Bighorn Sheep in a Prairie Region
(2020-07) DeVoe, Jesse D.; Lowrey, Blake; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Garrott, Robert A.
Efforts to recover Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis) throughout western North America have had limited success with the majority of current populations remaining in small and isolated areas on a fraction of their historical range. Prairie environments with rugged topography throughout the Northern Great Plains ecoregion were historically occupied by relatively robust bighorn sheep populations. We predicted there is likely unrealized potential habitat for restoring bighorn sheep to these areas; however, relatively little attention has been devoted to identifying habitat in unoccupied prairie regions. We used global positioning system (GPS)-collar data collected from 43 female bighorn sheep in 2 populations located in the eastern Montana, USA, portion of the Northern Great Plains during 2014–2018 to estimate a population-level annual resource selection model and identify the important factors affecting bighorn sheep resource selection. We extrapolated model predictions across eastern Montana's prairie region and identified potential habitat to understand restoration potential and assist with future translocations of bighorn sheep. Resource selection of bighorn sheep was most strongly associated with terrain slope and ruggedness, tree canopy cover, and a normalized difference vegetation index metric. Within currently unoccupied areas of the historical range, the model extrapolation predicted 7,211 km2 of habitat, with most owned and managed by private landowners (44%), Bureau of Land Management (33%), and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (15%). Our results provide an empirical evaluation of landscape covariates influencing resource selection of bighorn sheep occupying prairie environments and provide a habitat model that may be generalizable to other areas in the Northern Great Plains ecoregion. We demonstrate substantial potential for restoration opportunities of bighorn sheep in the Northern Great Plains ecoregion. Broad restoration of bighorn sheep across the ecoregion would likely require strong collaboration among and between public resource managers, private landowners, and livestock producers given the heterogeneous land ownership patterns, management strategies, and domestic sheep distributions.
Seasonal resource selection by introduced mountain goats in the southwest Greater Yellowstone Area
(2017-04) Lowrey, Blake; Garrott, Robert A.; Miyasaki, Hollie M.; Fralick, Gary L.; Dewey, Sarah R.
Mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) are among the least studied North American ungulates. Aided by successful translocations from the early to mid-1900s, introduced populations have greatly expanded within non-native ranges, yet there remains a paucity of empirical studies concerning their habitat requirements and potential distributions. The lack of studies presents a formidable challenge to managers tasked with monitoring mountain goat expansion and mitigating for any potential negative impacts posed to native species and communities. We constructed summer and winter resource selection models using GPS data collected during 2011-2014 from 18 (14 female and four male) mountain goats in the Snake River Range of the southwest Greater Yellowstone Area. We used generalized linear mixed models and evaluated landscape and environmental covariates at multiple spatial grains (i.e., neighborhood analyses within 30-, 100-, 500-, and 1000-m buffers) within four related suites. The multi-grain resource selection function greatly improved model fit, indicating that mountain goat resource selection was grain dependent in both seasons. In summer, mountain goats largely selected rugged and steep areas at high elevations and avoided high solar radiation, canopy cover, and time-integrated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In winter, mountain goats selected lower elevations characterized by steep and rugged slopes on warm aspects and avoided areas with high canopy cover, NDVI amplitude, and snow water equivalent. Slope was the dominant predictor of habitat use in both seasons, although mountain goats selected for steeper slopes in winter than in summer. Regional extrapolations depicted suitable mountain goat habitat in the Snake River, Teton, Gros Ventre, Wyoming, and Salt Ranges centered around steep and rugged areas. Winter range was generally characterized by the steepest slopes within a more broadly distributed and generally less steep summer range. Further research should examine the spatial and temporal overlap with native populations to further our understanding of resource selection dynamics and the potential for introduced mountain goats to alter intraguild behavioral processes of sympatric species, namely the Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis).
Security Areas for Elk During Archery and Rifle Hunting Seasons
(2017-07) Ranglack, Dustin H.; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Canfield, Jodie E.; Gude, Justin A.; Rotella, Jay J.; Garrott, Robert A.
Fall elk (Cervus canadensis) habitat management on public lands provides security areas for reasonable elk survival and hunter opportunity. The management focus of maintaining or improving security areas, combined with conservative harvest regulations, may explain why some elk populations have increased in the western United States. However, in areas that include lands that restrict public hunter access, elk may alter their space use patterns during the hunting season by increasing use of areas that restrict public hunter access rather than using security areas on adjacent public lands. We used global positioning system location data from 325 adult female elk in 9 southwest Montana populations to determine resource selection during the archery and rifle hunting seasons. We found that during the archery season, in order of decreasing strength of selection, elk selected for areas that restricted access to public hunters, had greater time-integrated normalized difference vegetation index values, had higher canopy cover, were farther from motorized routes, and had lower hunter effort. During the rifle season, in order of decreasing strength of selection, elk selected for areas that restricted access to public hunters, were farther from motorized routes, had higher canopy cover, and had higher hunter effort. Interactions among several covariates revealed dependencies in elk resource selection patterns. Further, cross-population analyses revealed increased elk avoidance of motorized routes with increasing hunter effort during both the archery and rifle hunting seasons. We recommend managing for areas with 13% canopy cover that are 2,760m from motorized routes, and identifying and managing for areas of high nutritional resources within these areas to create security areas on public lands during archery season. During the rifle season, we recommend managing for areas with 9% canopy cover that are 1,535m from motorized routes, and are 20.23km(2). Lastly, given increased elk avoidance of motorized routes with higher hunter effort, we recommend that to maintain elk on public lands, managers consider increasing the amount of security in areas that receive high hunter effort, or hunting seasons that limit hunter effort in areas of high motorized route densities.
Simulation-based validation of spatial capture-recapture models: A case study using mountain lions
(2019-04) Paterson, J. Terrill; Proffitt, Kelly M.; Jimenez, Ben; Rotella, Jay J.; Garrott, Robert A.
Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have improved the ability to estimate densities of rare and elusive animals. However, SCR models have seldom been validated even as model formulations diversify and expand to incorporate new sampling methods and/or additional sources of information on model parameters. Information on the relationship between encounter probabilities, sources of additional information, and the reliability of density estimates, is rare but crucial to assessing reliability of SCR-based estimates. We used a simulation-based approach that incorporated prior empirical work to assess the accuracy and precision of density estimates from SCR models using spatially unstructured sampling. To assess the consequences of sparse data and potential sources of bias, we simulated data under six scenarios corresponding to three different levels of search effort and two levels of correlation between search effort and animal density. We then estimated density for each scenario using four models that included increasing amounts of information from harvested individuals and telemetry to evaluate the impact of additional sources of information. Model results were sensitive to the quantity of available information: density estimates based on low search effort were biased high and imprecise, whereas estimates based on high search effort were unbiased and precise. A correlation between search effort and animal density resulted in a positive bias in density estimates, though the bias decreased with increasingly informative datasets. Adding information from harvested individuals and telemetered individuals improved density estimates based on low and moderate effort but had negligible impact for datasets resulting from high effort. We demonstrated that density estimates from SCR models using spatially unstructured sampling are reliable when sufficient information is provided. Accurate density estimates can result if empirical-based simulations such as those presented here are used to develop study designs with appropriate amounts of effort and information sources.
Sources of Variation in Maternal Allocation in a Long‐lived Mammal
(2020-06) Macdonald, Kaitlin R.; Rotella, Jay J.; Garrott, Robert A.; Link, William A.
Life history theory predicts allocation of energy to reproduction varies with maternal age, but additional maternal features may be important to the allocation of energy to reproduction. We aimed to characterize age‐specific variation in maternal allocation and assess the relationship between maternal allocation and other static and dynamic maternal features. Mass measurements of 531 mothers and pups were used with Bayesian hierarchical models to explain the relationship between diverse maternal attributes and both the proportion of mass allocated by Weddell seal mothers, and the efficiency of mass transfer from mother to pup during lactation as well as the weaning mass of pups. Our results demonstrated that maternal mass was strongly and positively associated with the relative reserves allocated by a mother and a pup's weaning mass but that the efficiency of mass transfer declines with maternal parturition mass. Birthdate was positively associated with proportion mass allocation and pup weaning mass, but mass transfer efficiency was predicted to be highest at the mean birthdate. The relative allocation of maternal reserves declined with maternal age but the efficiency of mass transfer to pups increases, suggestive of selective disappearance of poor‐quality mothers. These findings highlight the importance of considering multiple maternal features when assessing variation in maternal allocation. Life history predictions were evaluated using a long‐term dataset to characterize age‐specific variation in maternal allocation and the relationship between maternal allocation and other maternal attributes. Results demonstrated evidence for selective disappearance in a long‐lived capital breeder and the importance of including additional maternal attributes when assessing these questions.
Summer range occupancy modeling of non-native mountain goats in the greater Yellowstone area
(2015-11) DeVoe, Jesse D.; Garrott, Robert A.; Rotella, Jay J.; Challender, Stuart; White, Patrick J.; O'Reilly, Megan; Butler, Carson J.
Non-native species can have adverse impacts on native species. Predicting the potential extent of distributional expansion and abundance of an invading non-native species can inform appropriate conservation and management actions. Non-native mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in the greater Yellowstone area (GYA) have substantial potential to occupy similar habitats to native Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis). To understand the potential for expansion of mountain goats in the GYA, this study evaluated detection-nondetection data derived from ground-based occupancy surveys of viewsheds partitioned into a grid of 100 × 100 m sampling units. Surveys were conducted over three summer seasons (2011–2013) in two study areas with well-established mountain goat populations. Relationships between scale-specific habitat covariates and mountain goat selection were evaluated to model occupancy and detection probabilities based on mountain goat detections in 505 of the 53,098 sampling units surveyed. Habitat selection was most strongly associated with terrain covariates, including mean slope and slope variance, at a spatial scale of 500 × 500 m, and canopy cover, heat load, and normalized difference vegetation index at a spatial scale of 100 × 100 m. These results provide new insight into multi-scale patterns of mountain goat habitat selection, as well as evidence that mean slope and slope variance are more informative terrain covariates than distance to escape terrain, which has been commonly used in published mountain goat habitat models. The model predicted 9,035 km2 of suitable habitat within the GYA, of which 57% is currently un-colonized. Seventy-five percent of all bighorn observations recorded in the GYA fall within predicted suitable mountain goat habitat. We also estimated that the GYA might have the potential to support 5,331–8,854 mountain goats when all predicted habitat is occupied, or approximately 2.5–4.2 times the most recent abundance estimate of 2,354.
A Survey of Bacterial Respiratory Pathogens in Native and Introduced Mountain Goats ( Oreamnos americanus)
(2018-06) Lowrey, Blake; Butler, Carson J.; Edwards, William H.; Wood, Mary E.; Dewey, Sarah R.; Fralick, Gary L.; Jennings-Gaines, Jessica E.; Killion, Halcyon J.; McWhirter, Douglas E.; Miyasaki, Hollie M.; Stewart, Shawn T.; White, Kevin S.; White, Patrick J.; Garrott, Robert A.
In contrast to broad range expansion through translocations, many mountain goat ( Oreamnos americanus) populations have shown signs of decline. Recent documentation of pneumonia in mountain goats highlights their susceptibility to bacterial pathogens typically associated with bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis) epizootics. Respiratory pathogen communities of mountain goats are poorly characterized yet have important implications for management and conservation of both species. We characterized resident pathogen communities across a range of mountain goat populations as an initial step to inform management efforts. Between 2010 and 2017, we sampled 98 individuals within three regions of the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA), with a smaller sampling effort in southeast Alaska, USA. Within the GYA, we detected Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae in two regions and we found at least two Pasteurellaceae species in animals from all regions. Mannheimia haemolytica was the only pathogen that we detected in southeast Alaska. Given the difficult sampling conditions, limited sample size, and imperfect detection, our failure to detect specific pathogens should be interpreted with caution. Nonetheless, respiratory pathogens within the GYA may be an important, yet underappreciated, cause of mountain goat mortality. Moreover, because of the strong niche overlap of bighorn sheep and mountain goats, interspecific transmission is an important concern for managers restoring or introducing mountain ungulates within sympatric ranges.
Tight coupling of primary production and marine mammal reproduction in the Southern Ocean
(2015-05) Paterson, J. Terrill; Rotella, Jay J.; Arrigo, Kevin; Garrott, Robert A.
Polynyas are areas of open water surrounded by sea ice and are important sources of primary production in high-latitude marine ecosystems. The magnitude of annual primary production in polynyas is controlled by the amount of exposure to solar radiation and sensitivity to changes in sea-ice extent. The degree of coupling between primary production and production by upper trophic-level consumers in these environments is not well understood, which prevents reliable predictions about population trajectories for species at higher trophic levels under potential future climate scenarios. In this study, we find a strong, positive relationship between annual primary production in an Antarctic polynya and pup production by ice-dependent Weddell seals. The timing of the relationship suggests reproductive effort increases to take advantage of high primary production occurring in the months after the birth pulse. Though the proximate causal mechanism is unknown, our results indicate tight coupling between organisms at disparate trophic levels on a short timescale, deepen our understanding of marine ecosystem processes, and raise interesting questions about why such coupling exists and what implications it has for understanding high-latitude ecosystems.
Variation in the vital rates of an Antarctic marine predator: the role of individual heterogeneity
(2018-10) Paterson, J. Terrill; Rotella, Jay J.; Link, William A.; Garrott, Robert A.
Variation in life-history traits such as lifespan and lifetime reproductive output is thought to arise, in part, due to among-individual differences in the underlying probabilities of survival and reproduction. However, the stochastic nature of demographic processes can also generate considerable variation in fitness-related traits among otherwise-identical individuals. An improved understanding of life-history evolution and population dynamics therefore depends on evaluating the relative role of each of these processes. Here, we used a 33-yr data set with reproductive histories for 1,274 female Weddell seals from Erebus Bay, Antarctica, to assess the strength of evidence for among-individual heterogeneity in the probabilities of survival and reproduction, while accounting for multiple other sources of variation in vital rates. Our analysis used recent advances in Bayesian model selection techniques and diagnostics to directly compare model fit and predictive power between models that included individual effects on survival and reproduction to those that did not. We found strong evidence for costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction, with breeders having rates of survival and subsequent reproduction that were 3% and 6% lower than rates for non-breeders. We detected age-related changes in the rates of survival and reproduction, but the patterns differed for the two rates. Survival rates steadily declined from 0.92 at age 7 to 0.56 at the maximal age of 31yr. In contrast, reproductive rates increased from 0.68 at age 7 to 0.79 at age 16 and then steadily declined to 0.37 for the oldest females. Models that included individual effects explained more variation in observed life histories and had better estimated predictive power than those that did not, indicating their importance in understanding sources of variation among individuals in life-history traits. We found that among-individual heterogeneity in survival was small relative to that for reproduction. Our study, which found patterns of variation in vital rates that are consistent with a series of predictionsfrom life-history theory, is the first to provide a thorough assessment of variation in important vital rates for a long-lived, high-latitude marine mammal while taking full advantage of recent developments in model evaluation.