Browsing by Author "Whitlock, Cathy"

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2017 Montana Climate Assessment: Stakeholder driven, science informed
(Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2017-09) Whitlock, Cathy; Cross, Wyatt F.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Silverman, Nick; Wade, Alisa A.
The Montana Climate Assessment (MCA) is an effort to synthesize, evaluate, and share credible and relevant scientific information about climate change in Montana with the citizens of the State. The motivation for the MCA arose from citizens and organizations in Montana who have expressed interest in receiving timely and pertinent information about climate change, including information about historical variability, past trends, and projections of future impacts as they relate to topics of economic concern.This first assessment reports on climate trends and their consequences for three of Montana’s vital sectors: water, forests, and agriculture. We consider the MCA to be a sustained effort. We plan to regularly incorporate new scientific information, cover other topics important to the people of Montana, and address the needs of the state.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH IN MONTANA: A Special Report of the Montana Climate Assessment
(Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2020-12) Adams, Alexandra K.; Byron, Robert; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Higgins, Susan; Eggers, Margaret; Byron, Lori; Whitlock, Cathy
The purpose of this assessment is to a) present understandable, science-based, Montana-specific information about the impacts of climate change on the health of Montanans; and b) describe how our healthcare providers, state leaders, communities, and individuals can best prepare for and reduce those impacts in the coming decades. This assessment draws from, and is an extension to, the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment (MCA1) (Whitlock et al. 2017), which provides the first detailed analysis of expected impacts to Montana’s water, forests, and agriculture from climate change. MCA explains historical, current, and prospective climate trends for the state based on the best-available science. The 2017 Montana Climate Assessment did not address the impact of climate change on the health of Montanans. This special report of the MCA fills that important knowledge gap; it represents a collaboration between climate scientists and Montana’s healthcare community and is intended to help Montanans minimize the impacts of climate on their health.
Erroneously old radiocarbon ages from terrestrial pollen concentrates in Yellowstone Lake, Wyoming, USA
(2020-12) Schiller, Christopher M.; Whitlock, Cathy; Elder, Kathryn L.; Iverson, Nels A.; Abbott, Mark B.
Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of pollen concentrates is often used in lake sediment records where large, terrestrial plant remains are unavailable. Ages produced from chemically concentrated pollen as well as manually picked Pinaceae grains in Yellowstone Lake (Wyoming) sediments were consistently 1700–4300 cal years older than ages established by terrestrial plant remains, tephrochronology, and the age of the sediment-water interface. Previous studies have successfully utilized the same laboratory space and methods, suggesting the source of old-carbon contamination is specific to these samples. Manually picking pollen grains precludes admixture of non-pollen materials. Furthermore, no clear source of old pollen grains occurs on the deglaciated landscape, making reworking of old pollen grains unlikely. High volumes of CO2 are degassed in the Yellowstone Caldera, potentially introducing old carbon to pollen. While uptake of old CO2 through photosynthesis is minor (F14C approximately 0.99), old-carbon contamination may still take place in the water column or in surficial lake sediments. It remains unclear, however, what mechanism allows for the erroneous ages of highly refractory pollen grains while terrestrial plant remains were unaffected. In the absence of a satisfactory explanation for erroneously old radiocarbon ages from pollen concentrates, we propose steps for further study.
Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: past, present, and future climate change in greater Yellowstone watersheds
(Montana State University, Institute on Ecosystems, 2021-06) Hostetler, Steven; Whitlock, Cathy; Shuman, Bryan; Liefert, David; Drimal, Charles Wolf; Bischke, Scott
The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth (Reese 1984; NPSa undated). GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear (Schullery 1992). The boundary was enlarged through time and now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho. Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary. GYA also includes the Wind River Indian Reservation, but the region is the historical home to several Tribal Nations. Federal lands managed by the US Forest Service, the National Park Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service amount to about 64% (15.5 million acres [6.27 million ha] or 24,200 square miles [62,700 km2]) of the land within the GYA. The federal lands and their associated wildlife, geologic wonders, and recreational opportunities are considered the GYA’s most valuable economic asset. GYA, and especially the national parks, have long been a place for important scientific discoveries, an inspiration for creativity, and an important national and international stage for fundamental discussions about the interactions of humans and nature (e.g., Keiter and Boyce 1991; Pritchard 1999; Schullery 2004; Quammen 2016). Yellowstone National Park, established in 1872 as the world’s first national park, is the heart of the GYA. Grand Teton National Park, created in 1929 and expanded to its present size in 1950, is located south of Yellowstone National Park1 and is dominated by the rugged Teton Range rising from the valley of Jackson Hole. The Gallatin-Custer, Shoshone, Bridger-Teton, Caribou-Targhee, and Beaverhead-Deerlodge national forests encircle the two national parks and include the highest mountain ranges in the region. The National Elk Refuge, Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, and Grays Lake National Wildlife Refuge also lie within GYA.
A High-Resolution Chronology of Rapid Forest Transitions following Polynesian Arrival in New Zealand
(Public Library of Science, 2014-11) McWethy, David B.; Whitlock, Cathy; Wilmshurst, Janet; Wood, Jamie; McGlone, Matt
Human-caused forest transitions are documented worldwide, especially during periods when land use by dense agriculturally-based populations intensified. However, the rate at which prehistoric human activities led to permanent deforestation is poorly resolved. In the South Island, New Zealand, the arrival of Polynesians c. 750 years ago resulted in dramatic forest loss and conversion of nearly half of native forests to open vegetation. This transformation, termed the Initial Burning Period, is documented in pollen and charcoal records, but its speed has been poorly constrained. High-resolution chronologies developed with a series of AMS radiocarbon dates from two lake sediment cores suggest the shift from forest to shrubland occurred within decades rather than centuries at drier sites. We examine two sites representing extreme examples of the magnitude of human impacts: a drier site that was inherently more vulnerable to human-set fires and a wetter, less burnable site. The astonishing rate of deforestation at the hands of small transient populations resulted from the intrinsic vulnerability of the native flora to fire and from positive feedbacks in post-fire vegetation recovery that increased landscape flammability. Spatially targeting burning in highly-flammable seral vegetation in forests rarely experiencing fire was sufficient to create an alternate fire-prone stable state. The New Zealand example illustrates how seemingly stable forest ecosystems can experience rapid and permanent conversions. Forest loss in New Zealand is among the fastest ecological transitions documented in the Holocene; yet equally rapid transitions can be expected in present-day regions wherever positive feedbacks support alternate fire-inhibiting, fire-prone stable states.
Holocene geo-ecological evolution of Lower Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park (USA)
(2021-08) Schiller, Christopher M.; Whitlock, Cathy; Brown, Sabrina R.
Changes in climate and fire regime have long been recognized as drivers of the postglacial vegetation history of Yellowstone National Park, but the effects of locally dramatic hydrothermal activity are poorly known. Multi-proxy records from Goose Lake have been used to describe the history of Lower Geyser Basin where modern hydrothermal activity is widespread. From 10,300 cal yr BP to 3800 cal yr BP, thermal waters discharged into the lake, as evidenced by the deposition of arsenic-rich sediment, fluorite mud, and relatively high δ13Csediment values. Partially thermal conditions affected the limnobiotic composition, but prevailing climate, fire regime, and rhyolitic substrate maintained Pinus contorta forest in the basin, as found throughout the region. At 3800 cal yr BP, thermal water discharge into Goose Lake ceased, as evidenced by a shift in sediment geochemistry and limnobiota. Pollen and charcoal data indicate concurrent grassland development with limited fuel biomass and less fire activity, despite late Holocene climate conditions that were conducive to expanded forest cover. The shift in hydrothermal activity at Goose Lake and establishment of the treeless geyser basin may have been the result of a tectonic event or change in hydroclimate. This record illustrates the complex interactions of geology and climate that govern the development of an active hydrothermal geo-ecosystem.
A Holocene history of monkey puzzle tree (pehuén) in northernmost Patagonia
(Wiley, 2020-12) Nanavati, William; Whitlock, Cathy; Outes, Valeria; Villarosa, Gustavo
Aim Although it is established that climate and fire have greatly influenced the long-term ecosystem dynamics of Patagonia south of 40°S, the environmental history from northernmost Patagonia (37–40°S), where endemic and endangered monkey puzzle tree (Araucaria araucana) occurs, is poorly known. Here we ask: (a) What is the Holocene vegetation and fire history at the north-eastern extent of A. araucana forest? (b) How have climate and humans influenced the past distribution of A. araucana? Location Northernmost Patagonia, Argentina and Chile (37–40°S). Taxa Araucaria araucana, Nothofagus, Poaceae. Methods Sedimentary pollen and charcoal from Laguna Portezuelo (37.9°S, 71.0°W; 1,730 m; 11,100 BP) were evaluated using statistical methods and compared with other palaeoecological, independent palaeoclimate, and historical records to assess how changes in climate and land use influenced local-to-regional environmental history. Results An open forest-steppe landscape persisted at L. Portezuelo throughout the Holocene with generally low-to-moderate fire activity. Increased Nothofagus pollen after ~6,590 BP suggests increases in shrubland and moisture in association with cooler conditions and greater seasonality and ENSO activity. Araucaria pollen appeared at L. Portezuelo at ~6,380 BP, but was low in abundance until ~370 BP, when it rose with charcoal levels. This increase in Araucaria and fire coincided with a regional influx of Mapuche American Indians. Nothofagus deforestation and Pinus silviculture marked Euro-American settlement beginning in the 19–20th century. Main conclusions (a) Rapid postglacial warming and drying limited the distribution of Araucaria in the central valley of Chile. In the middle and late Holocene, decreased temperatures and greater seasonality and ENSO activity increased precipitation variability allowing Araucaria expansion at its north-eastern limit. (b) Greater abundance of Araucaria and heightened fire activity at L. Portezuelo after 370 BP coincided with increased Mapuche-Pehuenche American Indian land use, suggesting that Araucaria may have been managed in a human-altered landscape.
Land-use history as a guide for forest conservation and management
(2017-06) Whitlock, Cathy; Colombaroli, D.; Conedera, M.; Tinner, W.
Conservation efforts to protect forested landscapes are challenged by climate projections that suggest substantial restructuring of vegetation and disturbance regimes in the future. In this regard, paleoecological records that describe ecosystem responses to past variations in climate, fire, and human activity offer critical information for assessing present landscape conditions and future landscape vulnerability. We illustrate this point drawing on 8 sites in the northwestern United States, New Zealand, Patagonia, and central and southern Europe that have undergone different levels of climate and land‐use change. These sites fall along a gradient of landscape conditions that range from nearly pristine (i.e., vegetation and disturbance shaped primarily by past climate and biophysical constraints) to highly altered (i.e., landscapes that have been intensely modified by past human activity). Position on this gradient has implications for understanding the role of natural and anthropogenic disturbance in shaping ecosystem dynamics and assessments of present biodiversity, including recognizing missing or overrepresented species. Dramatic vegetation reorganization occurred at all study sites as a result of postglacial climate variations. In nearly pristine landscapes, such as those in Yellowstone National Park, climate has remained the primary driver of ecosystem change up to the present day. In Europe, natural vegetation–climate–fire linkages were broken 6000–8000 years ago with the onset of Neolithic farming, and in New Zealand, natural linkages were first lost about 700 years ago with arrival of the Maori people. In the U.S. Northwest and Patagonia, the greatest landscape alteration occurred in the last 150 years with Euro‐American settlement. Paleoecology is sometimes the best and only tool for evaluating the degree of landscape alteration and the extent to which landscapes retain natural components. Information on landscape‐level history thus helps assess current ecological change, clarify management objectives, and define conservation strategies that seek to protect both natural and cultural elements.
Pinus contorta invasions increase wildfire fuel loads and may create a positive feedback with fire
(2017-03) Taylor, Kimberley T.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; McWethy, David B.; Pauchard, Anibal; Nunez, Martin A.; Whitlock, Cathy
Invasive plant species that have the potential to alter fire regimes have significant impacts on native ecosystems. Concern that pine invasions in the Southern Hemisphere will increase fire activity and severity and subsequently promote further pine invasion prompted us to examine the potential for feedbacks between Pinus contorta invasions and fire in Patagonia and New Zealand. We determined how fuel loads and fire effects were altered by P. contorta invasion. We also examined post-fire plant communities across invasion gradients at a subset of sites to assess how invasion alters the post-fire vegetation trajectory. We found that fuel loads and soil heating during simulated fire increase with increasing P. contorta invasion age or density at all sites. However, P. contorta density did not always increase post-fire. In the largest fire, P. contorta density only increased significantly post-fire where the pre-fire P. contorta density was above an invasion threshold. Below this threshold, P. contorta did not dominate after fire and plant communities responded to fire in a similar manner as uninvaded communities. The positive feedback observed at high densities is caused by the accumulation of fuel that in turn results in greater soil heating during fires and high P. contorta density post-fire. Therefore, a positive feedback may form between P. contorta invasions and fire, but only above an invasion density threshold. These results suggest that management of pine invasions before they reach the invasion density threshold is important for reducing fire risk and preventing a transition to an alternate ecosystem state dominated by pines and novel understory plant communities.
Travertine records climate-induced transformations of the Yellowstone hydrothermal system from the late Pleistocene to the present
(Geological Society of America, 2024-02) Harrison, Lauren N.; Hurwitz, Shaul; Paces, James B.; Whitlock, Cathy; Peek, Sara; Licciardi, Joseph
Chemical changes in hot springs, as recorded by thermal waters and their deposits, provide a window into the evolution of the postglacial hydrothermal system of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field. Today, most hydrothermal travertine forms to the north and south of the ca. 631 ka Yellowstone caldera where groundwater flow through subsurface sedimentary rocks leads to calcite saturation at hot springs. In contrast, low-Ca rhyolites dominate the subsurface within the Yellowstone caldera, resulting in thermal waters that rarely deposit travertine. We investigated the timing and origin of five small travertine deposits in the Upper and Lower Geyser Basins to understand the conditions that allowed for travertine deposition. New 230Th-U dating, oxygen (δ18O), carbon (δ13C), and strontium (87Sr/86Sr) isotopic ratios, and elemental concentrations indicate that travertine deposits within the Yellowstone caldera formed during three main episodes that correspond broadly with known periods of wet climate: 13.9−13.6 ka, 12.2−9.5 ka, and 5.2−2.9 ka. Travertine deposition occurred in response to the influx of large volumes of cold meteoric water, which increased the rate of chemical weathering of surficial sediments and recharge into the hydrothermal system. The small volume of intracaldera travertine does not support a massive postglacial surge of CO2 within the Yellowstone caldera, nor was magmatic CO2 the catalyst for postglacial travertine deposition.