Scholarly Work - Agricultural Economics & Economics

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/3048

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 79

Are Booster Seats More Effective than Child Safety Seats or Seat Belts at Reducing Traffic Fatalities among Children?
(2019-01) Anderson, D. Mark; Sandholt, Sina
In an effort to increase booster seat use among children, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is encouraging state legislators to promote stricter booster seat laws, yet there is a paucity of information on booster seat efficacy relative to other forms of restraint. Using data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for the period 2008-16, the current study examines the effectiveness of booster seats relative to child safety seats and adult seat belts. For children two to five years of age, we find some evidence to suggest that booster seats are the least effective form of restraint. For children six to nine years of age, all three forms of restraint appear equally effective.
Aspirations Failure and Formation in Rural Nepal
(2017-04) Janzen, Sarah A.; Magnan, Nicholas; Sharma, Sudhindra; Thompson, William M.
Aspirations, or a lack thereof, have recently gained the attention of economists as a behavioral constraint to future-oriented behavior and investment. In this paper we empirically test the theories of aspirations failure and formation articulated in Appadurai (2004), Ray (2006), and Genicot and Ray (2015) using a unique dataset from rural Nepal. We ask two questions: (1) What is the relationship between aspirations and future-oriented behavior? and (2) To what extent are an individual\'s aspirations associated with the observable characteristics of those around her? We find that aspirations correspond with future-oriented economic behavior as predicted by theory: investment in the future increases with aspirations up to a certain point, but if the gap between one\'s current status and aspirations becomes too large, investment subsequently declines. We also find that one\'s aspirations are associated with outcomes of those in her social network of higher, but not lower, status. Together these findings provide empirical evidence that aspirations, which may be a social phenomenon, can either stimulate development or reinforce poverty.
The Basel accords, capital reserves, and agricultural lending
(2018-05) Brester, Gary W.; Watts, Myles J.
Purpose The safety and soundness of financial institutions has become a leading worldwide issue because of the recent global financial crisis. Historically, financial crises have occurred approximately every 20 years. The worst financial crisis in the last 75 years occurred in 2008–2009. US regulatory efforts with respect to capital reserve requirements are likely to have several unintended consequences for the agricultural lending sector—especially for smaller, less-diversified (and often, rural agricultural) lenders. The paper discusses these issues. Design/methodology/approach Simulation models and value-at-risk (VaR) criteria are used to evaluate the impact of capital reserve requirements on lending return on equity. In addition, simulations are used to calculate the effects of loan numbers and portfolio diversification on capital reserve requirements. Findings This paper illustrates that increasing capital reserve requirements reduces lending return on equity. Furthermore, increases in the number of loans and portfolio diversification reduce capital reserve requirements. Research limitations/implications The simulation methods are a simplification of complex lending practices and VaR calculations. Lenders use these and other procedures for managing capital reserves than those modeled in this paper. Practical implications Smaller lending institutions will be pressured to increase loan sector diversification. In addition, traditional agricultural lenders will likely be under increased pressure to diversify portfolios. Because agricultural loan losses have relatively low correlations with other sectors, traditional agricultural lenders can expect increased competition for agricultural loans from non-traditional agricultural lenders. Originality/value This paper is novel in that the authors illustrate how lender capital requirements change in response to loan payment correlations both within and across lending sectors.
Booster Seat Effectiveness Among Older Children: Evidence From Washington State
(2017-08) Anderson, D. Mark; Carlson, Lindsay L.; Rees, Daniel I.
Introduction The American Academy of Pediatrics has recommended that children as old as 12 years use a booster seat when riding in motor vehicles, yet little is known about booster seat effectiveness when used by older children. This study estimated the association between booster use and injuries among children aged 8–12 years who were involved in motor vehicle crashes. Methods Researchers analyzed data on all motor vehicle crashes involving children aged 8–12 years reported to the Washington State Department of Transportation from 2002 to 2015. Data were collected in 2015 and analyzed in 2016. Children who were in a booster seat were compared with children restrained by a seat belt alone. Logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders. Results In unadjusted models, booster use was associated with a 29% reduction in the odds of experiencing any injury versus riding in a seat belt alone (OR=0.709, 95% CI=0.675, 0.745). In models adjusted for potential confounders, booster use was associated with a 19% reduction in the odds of any injury relative to riding in a seat belt alone (OR=0.814, 95% CI=0.749, 0.884). The risk of experiencing an incapacitating/fatal injury was not associated with booster use. Conclusions Children aged 8–12 years involved in a motor vehicle crash are less likely to be injured if in a booster than if restrained by a seat belt alone. Because only 10% of U.S. children aged 8–12 years use booster seats, policies encouraging their use could lead to fewer injuries.
Child access prevention laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides
(2021-11) Anderson, D. Mark; Sabia, Joseph J.; Tekin, Erdal
Debate over safe-storage gun regulations has captured public attention in the aftermath of several high-profile shootings committed by minors. To date, the existing literature provides no evidence that these laws are effective at deterring gun crime, a conclusion that has prompted the National Rifle Association to assert that such regulations are “unnecessary” and “ineffective.” Using data from the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports for the period 1985–2013, we find that child access prevention (CAP) laws are associated with a 17 percent reduction in firearm-related homicides committed by juveniles. The estimated effect is stronger among whites than nonwhites and is driven by states enforcing the strictest safe-storage standard. We find no evidence that CAP laws are associated with firearm-related homicides committed by adults or with non-firearm-related homicides committed by juveniles, suggesting that the observed relationship between CAP laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides is causal.
The Chronic Kidney Disease Model: A General Purpose Model of Disease Progression and Treatment.
(2011-06) Orlando, L. A.; Belasco, Eric J.; Patel, U. D.; Matcher, D. B.
Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is the focus of recent national policy efforts; however, decision makers must account for multiple therapeutic options, comorbidities and complications. The objective of the Chronic Kidney Disease model is to provide guidance to decision makers. We describe this model and give an example of how it can inform clinical and policy decisions. Methods: Monte Carlo simulation of CKD natural history and treatment. Health states include myocardial infarction, stroke with and without disability, congestive heart failure, CKD stages 1-5, bone disease, dialysis, transplant and death. Each cycle is 1 month. Projections account for race, age, gender, diabetes, proteinuria, hypertension, cardiac disease, and CKD stage. Treatment strategies include hypertension control, diabetes control, use of HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, nephrology specialty care, CKD screening, and a combination of these. The model architecture is flexible permitting updates as new data become available. The primary outcome is quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Secondary outcomes include health state events and CKD progression rate. Results: The model was validated for GFR change/year -3.0 ± 1.9 vs. -1.7 ± 3.4 (in the AASK trial), and annual myocardial infarction and mortality rates 3.6 ± 0.9% and 1.6 ± 0.5% vs. 4.4% and 1.6% in the Go study. To illustrate the model's utility we estimated lifetime impact of a hypothetical treatment for primary prevention of vascular disease. As vascular risk declined, QALY improved but risk of dialysis increased. At baseline, 20% and 60% reduction: QALYs = 17.6, 18.2, and 19.0 and dialysis = 7.7%, 8.1%, and 10.4%, respectively. Conclusions: The CKD Model is a valid, general purpose model intended as a resource to inform clinical and policy decisions improving CKD care. Its value as a tool is illustrated in our example which projects a relationship between decreasing cardiac disease and increasing ESRD.
Correlation of the Ratio of Metastatc to Non-Metastatic Cancer Cases With the Degree of Socioeconomic Deprivation Among Texas Counties
(2011-02) Phillips, Billy U. Jr.; Gong, Gordon; Hargrave, Kristopher A.; Belasco, Eric J.; Lyford, Conrad P.
Background: Previous studies have demonstrated that cancer registrations and hospital discharge rate are closely correlated with census data-based socioeconomic deprivation indices. We hypothesized that communities with higher degrees of socioeconomic deprivation tend to have a higher ratio of metastatic to non-metastatic cancer cases (lung, breast, prostate, female genital system, colorectal cancers or all types of cancers combined). In this study, we investigate the potential link between this ratio and the Wellbeing Index (WI) among Texas counties. Results: Cancer data in 2000 were provided by the Texas Cancer Registry, while data on the ten socioeconomic variables among the 254 Texas counties in 2000 for building the WI were obtained from U.S. Census Bureau. The ten socioeconomic status variables were subjected to the principal component analysis, and the first principal component scores were grouped into deciles for the WI (1 to 10) and the 254 Texas counties were classified into 10 corresponding groups. Weighted linear regression analyses and a Cochran-Armitage trend test were performed to determine the relationship between the ratio of age-adjusted metastatic to non-metastatic cancer incidence cases and WI. The ratios of metastatic to non-metastatic cases of female genital system cancer (r2 = 0.84, p = 0.0002), all-type cancers (r2= 0.73, p = 0.0017) and lung cancer (r2= 0.54, p = 0.0156) at diagnosis were positively correlated with WI. Conclusions: The ratios of metastatic to non-metastatic cases of all-type, female genital system and lung cancers at diagnosis were statistically correlated with socioeconomic deprivation. Potential mediators for the correlation warrant further investigation in order to reduce health disparities associated with socioeconomic inequality.
Criminal Deterrence when There Are Offsetting Risks: Traffic Cameras, Vehicular Accidents, and Public Safety
(2020-08) Gallagher, Justin; Fisher, Paul J.
Numerous cities have enacted electronic monitoring programs at traffic intersections in an effort to reduce the high number of vehicle accidents. The rationale is that the higher expected fines for running a red light will induce drivers to stop and lead to fewer cross-road collisions. However, the cameras also incentivize drivers to accept a greater accident risk from stopping. We evaluate the termination of a monitoring program via a voter referendum using 12 years of geocoded police accident data. We find that the cameras changed the composition of accidents but no evidence of a reduction in total accidents or injuries.
Culture and gender allocation of tasks: source country characteristics and the division of non-market work among US immigrants
(2020) Blau, Francine D.; Kahn, Lawrence M.; Comey, Matthew; Eng, Amanda; Meyerhofer, Pamela; Willen, Alexander
There is a well-known gender difference in time allocation within the household, which has important implications for gender differences in labor market outcomes. We ask how malleable this gender difference in time allocation is to culture. In particular, we ask if US immigrants allocate tasks differently depending upon the characteristics of the source countries from which they emigrated. Using data from the 2003–2017 waves of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), we find that first-generation immigrants, both women and men, from source countries with more gender equality (as measured by the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index) allocate tasks more equally, while those from less gender equal source countries allocate tasks more traditionally. These results are robust to controls for immigration cohort, years since migration, and other own and spouse characteristics. There is also some indication of an effect of parent source country gender equality for second-generation immigrants, particularly for second-generation men with children. Our findings suggest that broader cultural factors do influence the gender division of labor in the household.
Determinants of crop diversification and its impact on farmers' income: A case study in Rangpur District, Bangladesh
(Wiley, 2024-09) Islam, Md Sayemul; Jahan, Hasneen; Sultana Ema, Nishat; Ahmed, Md. Rubel
Background. In the face of rising global food demand, climate change, and economic uncertainties, crop diversification has emerged as a crucial tool for achieving both economic and environmental sustainability. In Bangladesh, where the economy heavily relies on agriculture, crop diversification can play a vital role in enhancing farmers' livelihoods and domestic food production. Results. This study focuses on Rangpur district, an agricultural hub in Bangladesh, analyzing data from 122 farmers to assess the status, determinants, and effects of crop diversification. The Simpson Diversification Index (SDI) analysis revealed that 29% and 68% of the farmers exhibit very high and high degrees of crop diversification, respectively. The Tobit model identified significant drivers of crop diversification, including education, household size, farming experience, non-farm income, mobile phone information access, experience with climatic shocks, and land type. Additionally, the Log-Linear model indicated that each unit increase in the SDI score corresponds to a 2.41% increase in farmers' income. Conclusion. The study demonstrates that crop diversification is a key strategy for enhancing economic sustainability and increasing income among farmers in Bangladesh. By improving both economic outcomes and resilience, crop diversification supports sustainable agricultural practices in the region.
Determinants of delayed detection of cancers in Texas Counties in the United States of America
(2012-05) Gong, Gordon; Belasco, Eric J.; Hargrave, K. A.; Lyford, C. P.; Phillips, B. U. Jr.
Introduction: Previous studies have shown that delayed detection of several cancers is related to socioeconomic deprivation as measured by the Wellbeing Index (WI) in Texas, the United States of America (USA). The current study investigates whether delayed cancer detection is related to lack of health insurance, physician shortage and higher percentages of Hispanics rather than WI per se since these factors are directly related to delayed cancer detection and may confound WI. Methods: Cancer data and potential determinants of delayed cancer detection are derived from Texas Cancer Registry, Texas State Data Center, and Texas Department of State Health Services and U.S. Census Bureau. Texas cancer data from 1997 to 2003 are aggregated to calculate age-adjusted late- and early-stage cancer detection rates. The WI for each county is computed using data from the USA Census 2000. A weighted Tobit regression model is used to account for population size and censoring. The percentage of late-stage cancer cases is the dependent variable while independent variables include WI and the aforementioned potential confounders. Results: Delayed detection of breast, lung, colorectal and female genital cancers is associated with higher percentage of uninsured residents (p < 0.05). Delayed detection is also associated with physician shortage and lower percentages of Hispanics for certain cancers ceteris paribus ( p < 0.05). The percentage of late-stage cases is positively correlated with WI for lung, and prostate cancers after adjusting for confounders ( p < 0.05). Conclusions: The percentages of uninsured and Hispanic residents as well as physician supply are determinants of delayed detection for several cancers independently of WI, and vice versa. Identification of these determinants provides the evidence-base critical for decision makers to address specific issues for promoting early detection in effective cancer control.
Does Paid Family Leave Cause Mothers to Have More Children? Evidence from California
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-05) Golightly, Eleanor; Meyerhofer, Pamela
Literature on the labor market and health effects of paid family leave largely overlooks the impacts on fertility, particularly in the United States. Increased childbearing following the introduction of a modest paid family leave policy in the U.S. could explain the contrasting short–term gains and long–term losses in women’s labor market outcomes found in recent work. We exploit the nation’s first paid family leave program, implemented in California in 2004. Using the universe of U.S. births and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that access to leave increases fertility by 2.8 percent, driven by higher order births to mothers in their 30s, as well as Hispanic mothers and those with a high school degree. Our results are robust to corrective methods of inference, including synthetic controls. Our findings may inform the discussion of a national paid family leave policy.
Don't Judge a Wine by Its Closure: Price Premiums for Corks in the U.S. Wine Market
(2019-02-19) Bekkerman, Anton; Brester, Gary W.
For many purchases, consumers often possess only limited information about product quality. Thus, observable product characteristics are used to determine expected quality levels when making purchase decisions. We use more than 1 million weekly scanner-level observations from grocery stores across ten U.S. markets between September 2009 and August 2012 to examine how consumers value a wine bottle\'s closure type (i.e., cork or screw cap). We focus on lower-priced winesâ€”those with sale prices less than $30 per 750 milliliter bottleâ€”to more accurately evaluate decisions of consumers for whom seeking additional information about wine quality is likely more costly than the benefits derived from that information. Using both pooled ordinary least squares and quantile regressions to estimate price premiums for bottles with corks or screw caps, we find that U.S. consumers are willing to pay, on average, approximately 8% more (about $1.00) for a bottle of wine that has a cork closure. In addition, we show that the size of this premium increases as wine prices decline. (JEL Classifications: D81, M31, Q11)
The Effect of Concealed-Carry and Handgun Restrictions on Gun-Related Deaths: Evidence from the Sullivan Act of 1911
(Oxford University Press, 2022-01) Depew, Briggs; Swensen, Isaac D.
The 1911 New York State Sullivan Act outlawed carrying concealable firearms without a licence, established strict licencing rules and regulated the sale and possession of handguns. We analyse the effects of the Sullivan Act using historical data on mortality rates, pistol permits and citations for illegal carrying. Our analysis of pistol permits and citations reveal clear initial effects of the Sullivan Act on gun-related behaviours. Using synthetic control and difference-in-differences methodologies, our main analyses show no effects on overall homicide rates, evidence of a reduction in overall suicide rates and strong evidence of a large and sustained decrease in gun-related suicide rates.
The effect of school closings on teacher labor market outcomes and teacher effectiveness
(MIT Press - Journals, 2020-05) Hill, Andrew J.; Jones, Daniel B.
School closings displace thousands of teachers in the U.S. every year. This paper explores how elementary school teachers in North Carolina respond to this labor market shock. After documenting that declining enrollment is a key driver of school closings in our study, we find that while most displaced teachers move to new schools in the same district, a considerable share leave public education altogether. We find that the increase in the propensity to leave teaching is largest for experienced teachers. It is also marginally larger for the highest and lowest value-added teachers compared to teachers in the middle of the value-added distribution, and, strikingly, twice as large for black teachers than white teachers even from the same closing school. Moving schools after a school closing has no impact on teacher effectiveness as measured by value-added. Although the primary goal of school closings is typically to move students out of declining or failing schools, school closings also affect the overall distributions of important teacher characteristics such as experience, race, and effectiveness in raising test scores.
Effects of violent media content: Evidence from the rise of the UFC
(Elsevier BV, 2022-05) Lindo, Jason, M.; Swensen, Isaac D.; Waddell, Glen R.
We document the effect of violent media on crime. Specifically, we evaluate the effects of The Ultimate Fighter, a hit TV show that features fighters competing in violent mixed martial arts and which brought Ultimate Fighting Championship into the mainstream. We estimate the effect of exposure to the show’s earliest episodes using panel data from police agencies across the United States and a strategy that uses network ratings prior to the show’s premier as an instrumental variable. We show that this exposure significantly reduced crime: these effects are particularly evident for assault, began in the month the show premiered, and persisted for many years. These estimates do not reflect systematic differences across geographic areas in their trends in crime rates prior to 2005. To complement our main results, we also investigate the effects of “UFC Main Events,” which air in bars and on Pay-Per-View. This analysis additionally suggests reductions in violence caused by viewership.
Effects of water surplus on prevented planting in the US Corn Belt for corn and soybeans
(IOP Publishing, 2023-09) Lee, Seunghyun; Abatzoglou, John T
Record-high prevented planting of staple crops such as corn and soybeans in the United States (US) Corn Belt due to heavy rainfall in recent years has spurred concern over crop production, as growing evidence suggests winter and spring precipitation extremes will occur more frequentlyin the coming decades. Using county-level data, we examine the effects of planting-season water surplus—precipitation minus evaporative demand—on prevented planting of corn and soybeans in the US Corn Belt. Using monthly water surplus data, we show significant impacts of excess moisture on preventing planting and suggest a 58%–177% increase in prevented planting during the months of April–June per standard deviation increase in water surplus. Downscaled climate change projections are used to estimate future changes in prevented planting during the mid-century (2036–2065) under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5). Our model predicts a decrease in prevented planting of approximately 111,000 acres (12%) for corn and 80,000 acres (16%) for soybeans in the US Corn Belt, relative to historical levels from 1950 to 2005. However, if we consider only precipitation and disregard evaporative demand, the alternative model indicates an increase of approximately 260,000 acres (30%) for corn and 86,000 acres (19%) for soybeans. Geographically, we find that prevented planting will slightly increase in some parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and generally decrease in the other parts of the US Corn Belt. This work collectively highlights the value of incorporating water surplus data in assessing prevented-planting impacts and is the first known study to examine changing risk of prevented planting under future climate scenarios that may help inform adaptation efforts to avoid losses.
Employer-Sponsored Education Assistance and Graduate Program Choice, Cost, and Finance
(2019-06) Gilpin, Gregory A.; Kofoed, Michael
This paper studies the impact of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 that amended employer-sponsored education assistance (ESEA) fringe benefits from taxable to nontaxable for graduate studies. ESEA is an integral part of graduate education finance and is the dominant non-loan source of student aid. Using difference-in-difference and triple-difference specifications, we empirically evaluate educational outcomes related to graduate education choice, cost, and finance. The empirical results suggest that post-law reform, non-degree graduate students who exercise ESEA benefits are 12.3% more likely to attend open-admission institutions, 12.5% less likely to attend in-state, 10.3% more likely to attend for-profit colleges, and no changes are identified on cost or education debt loads, relative to their pre-law reform peers. As a whole, no differences in program choice are observed for degree-seeking graduate students. Additionally, the estimates suggest that while degree-seeking graduate students applying ESEA attend programs that cost, on average, $1170 more, no changes are identified post-law reform (2008 dollars). Furthermore, degree-seeking graduate students that apply ESEA benefits take out, on average, $1530 less in student loans, and this declines by an additional $1474 post-law reform (2008 dollars). Analysis by graduate program and also by gender and age suggest substantial heterogeneity from graduate program educational outcomes, especially for MBA students.
Estimates of U.S. Private Oil and Natural Gas Royalties
(2014-02) Fitzgerald, Timothy; Rucker, Randal R.
The United States is the only country in the world with widespread private ownership of minerals. This private ownership has helped make many citizens rich throughout the country’s history from strikes of precious metals and other minerals, as well as hydrocarbon resources. As the United States enjoys a Renaissance of oil production amidst the current high price environment, the ownership of oil and natural gas resources has reemerged as a critical economic force. Although private oil and gas ownership is acknowledged as an important contributor to innovation in development of unconventional resources and the technologies used to produce them (Yergin 2011), little is known about the aggregate value of private mineral interests. Usually private minerals are leased to developers in exchange for a royalty paid on the basis of gross production revenue as oil and natural gas are extracted. In this paper we estimate aggregate private oil and gas royalty incomes in recent years.
Evaluation of Crop Insurance Yield Guarantees and Producer Welfare with Upward Trending Yields
(2012-12) Adhikari, Subodh; Knight, T. O.; Belasco, Eric J.
Actual Production History (APH) yields play a critical role in determining the coverage offered to producers by the Risk Management Agency’s yield-based crop insurance products. Using both county and individual insured unit data, we examine the impact of APH yield trends for Texas cotton and Illinois corn. Our findings indicate that biases due to using simple average APH yields when yields are trending upward reduce the expected indemnity and actuarially fair premium rate. The estimated welfare effect also varies significantly with different commonly used detrending approaches. This study demonstrates that producer welfare can be enhanced through proper treatment of yield trends in crop insurance programs.