The effect of broadband diffusion on U.S. internal migration using lightning strikes as an instrument

Abstract

This thesis seeks to explore the relationship between internet connectivity and internal migration rates in the United States. A two-stage least squares design with a long-difference technique took advantage of the variation of a cross-section of U.S. counties, between the years 2011 and 2019, to determine a causal effect. Average lightning strike density between the years 2000 and 2010 was used as an instrument to estimate internet connectivity in a county, which was then used to estimate the effect of internet connectivity on net migration, inflow migration and outflow migration. Regressions were used to establish the causal effect of internet connectivity on a change in wages. The results find that a 20-percentage point increase of broadband connectivity results in an almost 5% average annual drop in inflow and outflow migration rates over the time-period overall, and an annual average 0.7% influx of migrants into rural counties. Consistent with the literature, it finds that a 20-percentage point increase in broadband connectivity results in an increase in an overall annual average 1.8% growth in wages over the time-period.