Melt embayments record multi-stage magma decompression histories Behnaz Hosseini *, Madison Myers Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717-3480, USA A R T I C L E I N F O Keywords: Magma decompression Melt embayments Volatiles Numerical modeling Decompression experiments A B S T R A C T Over the last decade, the melt embayment has proven its merit as a robust petrological tool capable of recording magma decompression rates for explosive eruptions. However, the models developed and applied to extract this information from embayments have not accounted for the complexity and nonlinearity of magma flow in the conduit. We present Embayment Decompression in Two Stages (EDiTS): a numerical model for extracting magma decompression rates from measured volatile diffusion profiles preserved in crystal-hosted embayments, approximating magma acceleration using two constant-rate decompression paths. This model solves for three unknown parameters: initial (deeper) and final (shallower) decompression rates, as well as the pressure where a transition occurs. We successfully benchmark EDiTS against existing numerical diffusion models, and use controlled multi-stage decompression experiments on natural quartz-hosted embayments to test the ability of our model to recover known decompression paths. We find that EDiTS is able to closely approximate the known two- stage path in the mixed-volatile (H2O + CO2) experiment, while a constant-rate modeling approach is unable to simultaneously fit H2O and CO2 gradients. However, in the H2O-saturated experiment, there is no unique so- lution to the resulting gradient, with both constant-rate and two-stage models reproducing the measured profile, and EDiTS notably overestimating the known total ascent time by several hours. Using decompression experi- ments, we show that constant-rate models can provide misleadingly good fits to embayment H2O gradients produced by more complex decompression histories, and thus the measurement and modeling of multiple diffusing species, when available, can provide crucial constraints. We then apply EDiTS to re-evaluate mixed- volatile embayment datasets from explosive silicic arc and caldera-forming eruptions from five volcanic centers (Yellowstone, WY, USA; Valles, NM, USA; Long Valley, CA, USA; Taupo, NZ; Mount St. Helens, WA, USA). In contrast to the minutes to hours of total ascent time extracted from embayment volatile profiles using constant- rate models, our two-stage model resolves slower initial ascent times that span 3.5–11 h. Final ascent rates are 1–2 orders of magnitude faster than the initial extracted rates, in agreement with theoretical conduit flow model predictions. Reassessment of embayments from the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens results in an initial stage of ascent consistent with the timing of magma arrival at the surface from the seismically-inferred storage region (7–9 km) ~3.5 h after the initial blast, and a final stage of ascent (<1–5 min) in close agree- ment with time-integrated bubble number densities. Our combined numerical and experimental results, and reevaluation of natural datasets, suggest that, with the application of advanced models, the melt embayment can provide a more nuanced picture of magma decompression timescales from the deep conduit to the surface. 1. Introduction Magma ascent through the volcanic conduit is a dynamic process, governed by complex feedbacks between intrinsic magma properties (e. g., viscosity, density, crystallinity, vesicularity) and external controls (e. g., conduit wall shearing, conduit geometry, etc.) (e.g., Gonnermann and Manga, 2013). One critical factor driving acceleration and explosive fragmentation of high-viscosity rhyolitic magmas is the interaction between magma decompression, volatile exsolution and melt-coupling, buoyancy, and resulting overpressure (e.g., Sparks, 2003). Recent nu- merical conduit models have implemented time-dependent, non-steady- state solutions to account for this dynamic feedback between magma flow, conduit properties, and reservoir pressure (e.g., Melnik and Sparks, 2006; Wong and Segall, 2019; Fig. 1a). Advances in numerical techniques applied to modeling pyroclast textures (i.e., bubbles, crys- tals) have followed suit, with incorporation of time-dependent * Corresponding author. E-mail address: behnazhosseini@montana.edu (B. Hosseini). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research journal homepage: www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-volcanology-and-geothermal-research https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108211 Received 4 April 2024; Received in revised form 18 September 2024; Accepted 20 October 2024 Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 Available online 23 October 2024 0377-0273/© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ). mailto:behnazhosseini@montana.edu www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03770273 https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-volcanology-and-geothermal-research https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108211 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108211 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108211 http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108211&domain=pdf http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ decompression in models aimed at reproducing crystal size distributions (CSD), microlite number densities (MND), and bubble number densities (BND) observed in natural samples (Andrews and Befus, 2020; Haji- mirza et al., 2021). These models have expanded upon earlier efforts that applied a step-function (Hammer and Rutherford, 2002) or constant-rate (Toramaru, 2006) boundary condition to extract decom- pression rates. This time-integrated approach to modeling pyroclast textures has allowed for seemingly decoupled, speedometer-specific decompression rates spanning >4 orders of magnitude to be more closely reconciled, as recently demonstrated for the 2008 eruption of Chaitén in Chile and the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines (Hajimirza et al., 2021; Harris et al., 2024). The same treatment, however, has not been extended to all petrological tools used to infer magma decompression rates, limiting the comparability of re- sults between different ascent rate meters and our ability to resolve nuanced decompression histories. One such recorder frequently lever- aged to estimate magma decompression rates (14 published studies applied to 27 eruptions from 14 volcanic centers; Table 1) but still confined to the realm of constant-rate modeling is the melt embayment (open melt pocket or inclusion). Over the last decade, embayments have gained a foothold among petrological recorders used to estimate magma decompression rates in explosive volcanic eruptions (Liu et al., 2007; Humphreys et al., 2008; Lloyd et al., 2014; Ferguson et al., 2016; Myers et al., 2018, 2021; Moussallam et al., 2019; Newcombe et al., 2020; Geshi et al., 2021; Befus et al., 2022; Saalfeld et al., 2022; Zuccarello et al., 2022; Elms et al., 2023; Harris et al., 2024). The premise behind this technique is that as magma ascends, dissolved volatiles (H2O, CO2, S, Cl, F) diffuse through melt embayment channels in response to decompression- induced degassing of the surrounding melt and the consequent forma- tion of a bubble at the outlet of the embayment (Fig. 1b). This generates a chemical potential gradient between the embayment interior and outlet, where the presence of the bubble implies a boundary layer of melt with a volatile concentration fixed at the solubility-predicted, equilibrium value. Upon eruption and explosive fragmentation, embayment melt rapidly quenches to glass, locking in compositional gradients that are measured using microanalytical techniques (e.g., nano secondary ion mass spectrometry: Lloyd et al., 2014, Newcombe et al., 2020; Raman spectroscopy: Myers et al., 2021, Zuccarello et al., 2022; Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, Myers et al., 2018) or other novel methods (e.g., calibrated back-scattered electron grayscale intensities, Humphreys et al., 2008) and modeled numerically to extract decompression rates. Although the embayment has proven its versatility in recording decompression for a range of melt compositions (rhyolite: Liu et al., 2007; rhyo-dacite: Humphreys et al., 2008; basaltic-andesite: Lloyd et al., 2014; basalt: Ferguson et al., 2016), phenocryst hosts (quartz: Saalfeld et al., 2022; plagioclase: Humphreys et al., 2008; py- roxene: Myers et al., 2021; olivine: Moussallam et al., 2019), and rates (0.0001–1 MPa s− 1), and has been subjected to rigorous numerical (deGraffenried and Shea, 2021; Wei et al., 2024) and experimental (Hosseini et al., 2023) evaluation, the execution of embayment modeling using a constant-rate boundary condition has been met with variable success. In particular, some studies have been unable to model measured embayment profiles comprising multiple diffusing species (H2O, CO2, S) directly from the inferred magma storage region, requiring the application of two separate constant decompression rates to best fit volatile profiles within individual embayments (e.g., Lloyd et al., 2014; Myers et al., 2018; Geshi et al., 2021). Further, some studies have applied modified (i.e., not storage) starting conditions to account for negligible CO2 in embayments compared to co-erupted melt in- clusions (e.g., Myers et al., 2018, 2021; Saalfeld et al., 2022; Elms et al., 2023; Fig. 2; Table 1). These starting conditions assume either (i) some Fig. 1. (a) Illustrative model showing the evolution of gas volume fraction (dark gray curve) and overpressure (light gray curve) for a rhyolitic magma approaching the fragmentation front, modified from Gonnermann and Manga (2013). (b) Schematic of a two-stage decompression-diffusion model, where an initial slow stage of decompression allows for partial re-equilibration of the embayment melt to lower volatile concentrations prior to a faster final decompression in the upper conduit. Abbreviations are EMB – embayment, MI – melt inclusion, QTZ – quartz, and B – bubble. White arrows indicate the direction of diffusion from the interior to the outlet of the embayment. (c) Pressure-time diagram illustrating how a two-stage model (EDiTS) better approximates a natural accelerating decompression path compared with a standard constant-rate, continuous decompression model. B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 2 degree of isobaric crystallization occurred prior to eruption, driving CO2 from the system via second boiling or (ii) exsolution of CO2 occurred through a minor, initial decompression stage, potentially buoyancy- driven (e.g., Myers et al., 2021; Saalfeld et al., 2022) (Fig. 2). Impor- tantly, both scenarios can produce a moderate-high H2O and no CO2 starting condition distinctive from the melt inclusion population. A third (iii) frequently applied ‘modified’ starting condition is the pressure associated with the maximum volatile content preserved in the embayment interior. The application of this initial condition assumes that a period of slow decompression or stalling allowed for re- equilibration of the embayment interior to a moderate H2O and no- low CO2 condition (e.g., Myers et al., 2018; Saalfeld et al., 2022; Elms et al., 2023) (Fig. 2). This scenario was also called upon by Lloyd et al. (2014) to explain the consistently low embayment interior CO2 contents of Fuego embayments (<200 ppm) compared to the much wider range of co-erupted melt inclusion concentrations (100–750 ppm) (Table 1). This same observation holds across all examined eruptions, where embayment interiors retain <60 % of their initial (melt inclusion) CO2 concentrations (the exception being the Mesa Falls Tuff; Table 1). The uncertainty in the starting volatile concentrations and corresponding pressures required to reproduce measured profiles has non-negligible effects on calculated decompression rates. Recent modeling of embayments subjected to experimentally-controlled decompression revealed that applying shallower-than-known starting conditions yiel- ded decompression rates up to 5× faster than the experienced rate, with equally good or better model fits (Hosseini et al., 2023). Similar results were shown numerically by deGraffenried and Shea (2021), where using the maximum H2O content in an embayment as the starting condition, when the known value is greater, compounded errors from geometry by an additional factor of 2–10×. This finding highlights the challenges and limitations of a constant-rate modeling approach combined with un- certain starting conditions. In these cases, it is likely that magmas experienced more dynamic, multi-stage decompression histories and thus require a new modeling framework that can account for these complexities. Here we present, validate, and apply a new MATLAB-based numer- ical model (Embayment Decompression in Two Stages, or EDiTS) that allows for decoupling and resolution of lower and upper conduit decompression rates recorded by volatile (H2O ± CO2) profiles in em- bayments while maintaining the usability and extensibility of available constant-rate decompression models (Fig. 1b-c). This approach ap- proximates the presumed accelerating path of magma ascent, driven by a positive feedback between decompression, volatile exsolution, buoy- ancy, and overpressure, with two separate stages of decompression Table 1 Compilation of embayment studies, including number of embayments analyzed, maximum melt inclusion and embayment CO2 contents, maximum percentage of CO2 retained in the embayment interior (compared to melt inclusion concentrations), and number of good model fits in the original studies (including percentage of total). Eruption No. EMB Analyzed Max MI CO2 (ppm) Max EMB CO2 (ppm) Max CO2 Retained (%) No. Good Model Fits RHYOLITIC TO DACITIC Bandelier[1]* (1.61 and 1.26 Ma) 22 216 0 0 9 (41 %) Oruanui[2]* (26.5 ka) 9 200 100 50 1 (11 %) Huckleberry[2]* (2.08 Ma) 9 800 450 56 4 (44 %) Bishop[2]* (760 ka) 13 225 275 2 (15 %) Aira[3] (30 ka) >27 250 0 0 – Okataina[4] (21.9 ka–1314 CE) 21 126 0 0 21 (100 %) Santorini[5] (3.6 ka) 11 <200 0 0 10 (91 %) Pinatubo[6] (1991) 11 <20 0 0 6 (55 %) Mesa Falls[7] (1.3 Ma) 40 669 558 83 – Mount St. Helens[8]* (1980) 3 – – – 3 (100 %) BASALTIC TO ANDESITIC Fuego[9] (1974) 4 726 173 24 1 (25 %) Etna[10] (2013, 2015, 2018) 15 – – – – Ambae[11] (2018) 10 3899 1672 43 – Kilauea[12] (1500 CE, 1600 CE, 1959) 4 1200 300 25 4 (100 %) Seguam[13] (1977) 5 850 150 18 5 (100 %) Note: all model fits based on a constant-rate modeling approach. (− ) indicates no data collected or otherwise available. (*) indicates eruptions revisited in this study. 1 Saalfeld et al. (2022). 2 Myers et al. (2018). 3 Geshi et al. (2021). 4 Elms et al. (2023). 5 Myers et al. (2021). 6 Harris et al. (2024). 7 Befus et al. (2022). 8 Humphreys et al. (2008). 9 Lloyd et al. (2014). 10 Zuccarello et al. (2022). 11 Moussallam et al. (2019). 12 Ferguson et al. (2016). 13 Newcombe et al. (2020). B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 3 (Fig. 1b-c). Currently the code is formulated for silicic systems, from which a greater number of embayments have been measured (>80 %; Table 1) but can be modified for andesitic to basaltic systems (and the inclusion of S) using published diffusivities and solubilities (Georgeais et al., 2021 and references therein). We first benchmark EDiTS against existing numerical embayment decompression-diffusion models, before validating it using experimentally-controlled decompression of natural quartz-hosted embayments. Finally, we apply EDiTS to existing Fig. 2. Scenarios that can produce embayment H2O + CO2 contents modified (t2) from melt inclusion (storage) concentrations (t1), shown (a) schematically and (b-c) graphically. (i) Isobaric crystallization drives second boiling of CO2, resulting in low to no CO2 in embayments despite some amount in melt inclusions. (ii) Buoyancy- driven decompression similarly results in CO2 exsolution in a saturated system and loss from the embayment, while retaining moderate-high H2O. (iii) A period of slow decompression or stalling during magma ascent can result in both lower H2O in, and complete loss of CO2 from, the embayment compared to melt inclusions. In these scenarios, applying a constant-rate model with melt inclusion starting conditions may lead to poor fits to H2O ± CO2 gradients. B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 4 embayment datasets (H2O ± CO2) from highly explosive silicic erup- tions from five volcanic centers (Yellowstone, WY, USA; Valles, NM, USA; Long Valley, CA, USA; Taupo, NZ; Mount St. Helens, WA, USA) to reassess timescales of magma decompression and ascent. Through this multi-faceted approach, we aim to investigate whether (1) embayments can faithfully record, and models can be developed to extract, more complex and realistic magma decompression paths, and (2) a two-stage embayment modeling framework provides magma decompression rates in better agreement with independent estimates for historic eruptions fromwell-monitored volcanoes (e.g., May 18th, 1980Mount St. Helens). 2. Model set-up and validation 2.1. Numerical model development and benchmarking The available 1-, 2-, and 3-D models for recreating volatile diffusion profiles within embayments apply numerical (finite-difference) solu- tions to the diffusion equation (e.g., unnamed model (1D): Myers et al., 2018; Hosseini et al., 2023; EMBER (1D): Georgeais et al., 2021; un- named model (1D, 3D): deGraffenried and Shea, 2021; Embayment- Diffuser (1D, 2D): Befus et al., 2022). Here, we will focus on the 1D model set-up (majority of embayment models), since a 1D solution forms the basis for EDiTS. In these models, H2O and CO2 (e.g., Myers et al., 2018; Befus et al., 2022; Hosseini et al., 2023) and, in some cases, S (e.g., Lloyd et al., 2014; Ferguson et al., 2016; Georgeais et al., 2021; Zuc- carello et al., 2022) diffuse through a melt-filled embayment in response to the formation of a bubble at the channel outlet, which establishes a concentration step function between the bubble and surrounding melt. The presence of this bubble is a result of decreasing volatile solubilities and exsolution induced by magma decompression. Volatile element solubilities are well-established for a range of melt compositions and are pressure-, temperature-, and fluid composition-dependent (e.g., New- man and Lowenstern, 2002; Witham et al., 2012). Diffusivities have been experimentally determined and are pressure, temperature, H2O- concentration and, in the case of S, oxygen fugacity dependent (Nowak and Behrens, 1997; Zhang and Behrens, 2000; Freda et al., 2003, 2005; Nowak et al., 2004; Ni and Zhang, 2008; Zhang and Ni, 2010; Zhang et al., 2010). At the crystal-melt interface, a no-flux boundary condition (Neumann boundary) is imposed, justified by the incompatibility of the diffusing volatile elements in the host crystal, such that diffusive flux is uni-directional along the length of the embayment. The boundary con- dition at the bubble-melt interface is updated at each decompression time-step (Dirichlet boundary), with the volatile concentration assumed to be in local equilibrium with the exsolved fluid present in the melt surrounding the crystal. We note that this assumption of an equilibrium degassing pathway is a current limitation of embayment modeling. Previous decompression experiments have shown that bubble nucle- ation delay and disequilibrium degassing in crystal-poor rhyolitic melts can generate significant overpressures during magma ascent (e.g., Mangan and Sisson, 2000; Cichy et al., 2011), and recent numerical studies have demonstrated the non-negligible effect of the assumed degassing mechanism on calculated embayment decompression rates (up to one order of magnitude; deGraffenried and Shea, 2021). Future embayment models would thus benefit from a greater understanding of bubble nucleation mechanisms in rhyolitic melt, as well as the devel- opment of general models describing pressure-H2O concentration re- lationships during disequilibrium degassing (e.g., deGraffenried and Shea, 2021). Model input parameters include (1) initial dissolved volatile con- centration in the melt (CH2O, wt%; CCO2, ppm; CS, ppm) which is typi- cally determined from co-erupted melt inclusions or otherwise a ‘modified’ starting condition as discussed above (Fig. 2); (2) initial pressure (Pi; MPa), which is related to volatile concentrations via solu- bility models (e.g., VolatileCalc, Newman and Lowenstern, 2002; Mag- maSat, Ghiorso and Gualda, 2015); (3) temperature (T; ◦C), which is often held constant, an assumption that is likely more appropriate in silicic rather than basaltic systems (Mastin and Ghiorso, 2001); (4) the mass of pre-exsolved fluid; and (5) embayment length from the interior crystal-glass interface to the bubble-glass interface (x; μm). To date, all published codes simulate a constant-rate, continuous decompression path using some or all of the above model assumptions and input parameters. Our MATLAB-based two-stage decompression-diffusion model, EDiTS, is applicable to H2O ± CO2 diffusing through rhyolitic melt embayments, and incorporates 1D time- and concentration-dependent diffusion defined by Fick’s second law: ∂Ci ∂t = ∂ ∂x ( Di ∂Ci ∂x ) (1) where C is the concentration of the diffusing species i in the melt (wt% or ppm), D is the diffusivity of the volatile species in silicate melt (μm2 s− 1) as a function of the total dissolved H2O concentration, x is distance (μm), and t is time (s). Solving Eq. (1) numerically requires defining appro- priate initial (t = 0, 0≤x≤L) and boundary (t > 0, x = 0, L) conditions at the embayment outlet (x= 0) and interior (x= L), given in ourmodel by: Ci0≤x≤L, t=0 = uniform (2a) Cix=0, t>0 = Cisolubility (2b) ∂Cix=L ∂x = 0 (2c) where Eq. (2a) describes an initially uniform volatile concentration C of diffusing species i along the entire length of the embayment, Eq. (2b) defines a pressure- and time-dependent boundary condition at the bubble-melt interface (outlet) determined by the equilibrium solubility of the diffusing species i, and Eq. (2c) defines a no-flux boundary con- dition at the melt-crystal interface (interior). EDiTS incorporates the empirical expressions of Liu et al. (2005) to model H2O and CO2 solu- bility (see Eqs. 2a and 2b in Liu et al., 2005). For H2O and CO2 diffu- sivities, we use equations given by Zhang and Behrens (2000), applicable to a wide range of conditions (400–1200 ◦C, 0.1–810 MPa, and 0.1–7.7 wt% total H2O), and Zhang et al. (2007), respectively. The code and all relevant documentation are available on GitHub and archived on Zenodo (https://zenodo.org/record/10042159). EDiTS expands on the models of Myers et al. (2018) and Hosseini et al. (2023) by implementing a new free parameter iteration structure. The original model cycles through a range of unknown inputs including initial exsolved fluid content (r; wt%), decompression rate (dP/dt; MPa s− 1), and fragmentation pressure (Pf ; MPa), where diffusion ceases due to rapid quenching of embayment melt. A χ2 misfit is calculated based on the difference between the measured and modeled profiles with this value determined iteratively for every combination of parameters: χ2 = ∑L x=1 ( Ci,xmeasured − Ci,xmodeled )2 σ2i,x (3) Where Ci,xmeasured is the measured concentration of volatile species i at position x in the compositional profile, Ci,xmodeled is the modeled volatile concentration, and σi,x is the uncertainty of the measured concentration. The best-fit profile is determined by the combination of parameters that minimizes χ2 (Eq. 3) for fitting H2O and CO2 simultaneously. Here, we apply the samemisfit calculation but instead cycle through the following three user-defined, incremented parameters: initial (deeper; dP/dti) and final (shallower; dP/dtf ) decompression rates, as well as the pressure where this transition occurs (Pt). In this framework, the code now con- sists of two constant-rate, continuous decompression stages where, at a given transition pressure, the H2O ± CO2 diffusion profiles produced during the first (initial) stage of decompression are used as inputs (starting conditions) for the second (final) stage of decompression. The tradeoff of this model set-up is that initial exsolved gas content and B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 5 https://zenodo.org/record/10042159 quench pressure are no longer free model parameters and thus need to be estimated independently. For example, the quench pressure can be determined from the H2O ± CO2 concentration near the embayment outlet or adhering matrix glass (e.g., Lloyd et al., 2014), and the exsolved gas content can be estimated using other embayment models (e.g., Myers et al., 2018). Fig. A1 provides a graphical flow-chart sum- mary of the code architecture. While there are no independent two-stage models to benchmark EDiTS against, we are able to validate our code by using constant-rate, continuous models to produce synthetic H2O and CO2 concentration profiles characterized by known deeper and shallower decompression rates (Fig. A2). Using the code of Hosseini et al. (2023), we first modeled an initial decompression stage (dP/dti) from 150 MPa (3 wt% H2O and ~680 ppm CO2) to an intermediate pressure (Pt; 100, 90, or 80MPa) at a specific rate (0.001, 0.005, or 0.009 MPa s− 1). The resulting H2O and CO2 concentration profiles from this initial stage were then used as the starting conditions for the final decompression stage ( dP/dtf ) from the intermediate pressure to the quench pressure (Pf ; 30, 15, or 10 MPa) at a specific rate (0.01, 0.05, or 0.09 MPa s− 1). The resulting ‘synthetic’ profiles were input as ‘measured’ H2O + CO2 profiles for recreation by EDiTS. For the three distinct synthetic profiles that were produced using different initial and final decompression rates and transition pressures, we were able to successfully extract the known decompression paths with χ2 misfits of 0 using EDiTS (Fig. A2; Table 2). This is an expected result since both models use the same parameterizations, but never- theless demonstrates that the two-stage code is performing in the intended manner. We are confident that tests using synthetic volatile profiles generated by other 1D models should lead to similarly low χ2 misfits in EDiTS, with any divergence resulting from the volatile solu- bility and diffusivity equations defined within each model. We also test how EDiTS performs in recreating synthetic H2O and CO2 profiles produced by a single stage, constant-rate decompression. Here we find that the model can recover initial and final rates that bracket the experienced constant rate (i.e., a false positive result) (Table 2). For instance, for synthetic H2O + CO2 profiles produced by a constant decompression rate of 0.008 MPa s− 1 from 150 to 30 MPa, EDiTS recovers a best-fit initial decompression rate of 0.004 MPa s− 1 from 150 to 80 MPa, and 0.01 MPa s− 1 from 80 to 30 MPa. We discuss the implications of this result later. 2.2. High pressure-temperature decompression experiments Our second validation approach is to apply EDiTS to model embay- ment profiles produced during two-stage, mixed-volatile (H2O + CO2) and pure H2O-saturated decompression experiments. Hosseini et al. (2023) present a method to successfully re-equilibrate natural quartz- hosted embayments to new starting pressures and fluid compositions using a rapid-quench cold-seal pressure vessel at the University of Oregon. Each experimental charge consists of Bishop ash (<60 μm) doped with 10 wt% oxalic acid dihydrate (OAD), natural quartz crystals with embayments, and nickel‑nickel oxide (NNO) buffer. The embay- ment melt is re-equilibrated at high pressures (150 MPa) and tempera- tures (780 ◦C), where the OAD breaks down to form an H2O-CO2 fluid mixture. The charge is then subjected to controlled, constant-rate, continuous decompression. Embayments record volatile diffusion pro- files characterized by known decompression rates that were able to be successfully recovered via numerical diffusion modeling. Following the methodology outlined in Hosseini et al. (2023), we further develop the technique by conducting multi-stage, continuous decompression ex- periments, with the goal of testing the ability of EDiTS to recover known two-stage decompression paths and transition pressures from re- equilibrated natural embayments (Fig. A3; Table A1). One H2O-satu- rated experiment (E4–2) was conducted in which we decompressed the charge from 150 MPa at an initial rate of 0.006 MPa s− 1 before tran- sitioning at 100 MPa to 0.02 MPa s− 1 and air quenching at 30 MPa (total decompression time 3.28 h; Fig. 3; Fig. A3; Table A1). In the mixed- volatile (H2O + CO2) saturated experiment (E3–2), we decompressed the charge from 150 MPa at 0.009 MPa s− 1 before ramping up, at 80 MPa, to 0.06 MPa s− 1 and air quenching at 30 MPa (total decompression time 2.39 h; Fig. 4; Fig. A3; Table A1). We additionally conducted one stalling experiment in which the charge was decompressed from 150 MPa to 80MPa at a constant rate of 0.02MPa s− 1, stalled for three hours, and then decompressed at the same constant rate until quench at 30 MPa (total decompression time 1.66 h, total experiment time 4.66 h; Fig. A3; Table A1). Three glassy embayments recovered from these experiments (one from each) were prepared for analyses of H2O ± CO2 transects using a Nicolet iN10 infrared microscope and integrated spectrometer at Montana State University. The embayment from the H2O-saturated experiment preserves a gradient from ~2.5 wt% H2O at the outlet that plateaus at ~3.5 wt% H2O at the interior (Fig. 3; Table A2). Lower H2O (2–3 wt%) characterizes the gradient in the embayment from the mixed- volatile experiment, with CO2 ranging from 175 to 250 ppm (Fig. 4; Table A2). The stalled embayment preserves a H2O gradient from 1 to 1.9 wt% with CO2 ranging from 35 to 175 ppm (Table A2). Full exper- imental set-up and procedures, along with FTIR spectroscopy data collection and processing, are outlined in Hosseini et al. (2023) and provided in the Supplementary Material (Text A1-A2, Tables A1-A2, Fig. A3). We applied EDiTS to assess how accurately the known experimental decompression paths could be extracted from preserved embayment H2O ± CO2 concentration gradients, allowing dP/dti, dP/dtf , and Pt to vary freely. Modeling the three recovered embayments from two-stage experiments, one from a continuously decompressed H2O-saturated experiment (E4–2), one from a continuously decompressed mixed- volatile (H2O + CO2) experiment (E3–2), and the final from a stalled mixed-volatile (H2O + CO2) experiment (E1–2), we note some signifi- cant observations. For the H2O-saturated experiment (E4–2), we recover equally good fits to the H2O gradient using the constant-rate (0.011 MPa Table 2 Summary of results from applying constant-rate (Hosseini et al., 2023) and two-stage (EDiTS) models to experimental and synthetic H2O± CO2 profiles. ‘True positive’ results occur when a given model recovers known synthetic or experimental decompression conditions. ‘False positive’ results occur when a given model recovers non- experienced synthetic or experimental decompression conditions. Model Constant-rate (Hosseini et al., 2023) Two-stage (EDiTS) Experimental Constant rate Validated by Hosseini et al. (2023) for both H2O-only and H2O + CO2 profiles. This study. Can produce a false positive result for both H2O-only and H2O + CO2 profiles. Two-stage This study. Cannot simultaneously fit H2O + CO2 profiles. Can produce a false positive fit to a H2O-only profile. This study. Can successfully fit H2O + CO2 profiles with known dP/dti, Pt , and dP/dtf . No unique fit to H2O-only profiles. Synthetic Constant rate Perfect fits, N/A. This study. Can produce a false positive result, where dP/dti, Pt , and dP/dtf are recovered with a misfit of 0. Two-stage This study. Can produce a false positive fit to both H2O-only and H2O+ CO2 profiles that roughly averages the decompression path. This study. Can successfully recover dP/dti, Pt , and dP/dtf with a misfit of 0. B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 6 s− 1; χ2 = 0.09) and two-stage (0.002 ➔ 0.012 MPa s− 1; χ2 = 0.08) models (Fig. 3; Table 2). This highlights the previously-recognized challenge of discerning unique embayment decompression paths using only a single diffusing volatile specie (e.g., Lloyd et al., 2014; Hosseini et al., 2023). We also observe that the constant-rate model recovers a best-fit decompression rate that roughly averages the two-stage decompression path, confirming that a constant-rate modeling approach can blur the effects of acceleration or multi-stage ascent his- tories. Translating these recovered decompression rates to ascent time via: tconstant = Pi − Pf dP/dt (4a) ttwo− stage = Pi − Pt dP/dti + Pt − Pf dP / dtf (4b) where Pi, Pt, and Pf are the initial, transition, and final pressures and dP/dt is the decompression rate, we find that the constant-rate model (3.03 h) closely approximates the known total ascent time (i.e., exper- iment duration, 3.28 h), while the two-stage model (8.56 h) poorly approximates the known ascent time. However, the two-stage model reasonably approximates the final, rapid stage of decompression from 100 to 30 MPa (97.2 mins recovered vs. 58.3 mins known), while this time cannot be resolved using the constant-rate model. While a wide range of initial decompression rates can fit the measured profile (0.001–0.009 MPa s− 1 translating to 1.5–13 h of ascent time), the final stage of decompression is much more constrained (good fits between 0.01 and 0.02 MPa s− 1 equating to 1.94 h–58 mins of ascent time). Overall, these results highlight that most of the error in recovering the experienced path from H2O profiles results from the poor constraints on the initial, slower stage of decompression, where in this case EDiTS re- covers an initial ascent time (6.9 h) a factor of three greater than that experienced (2.3 h) (Fig. 3). Conversely, for the continuously-decompressed two-stage mixed- volatile experiment (E3–2), we are only able to fit the H2O and CO2 embayment profiles simultaneously using EDiTS (Fig. 4). For this embayment, the constant-rate model recovers a best fit decompression rate (characterized by an unacceptable fit to the CO2 profile) of 0.025 MPa s− 1, with a recovered ascent time (1.33 h) that underestimates the experienced time (2.39 h). This code again recovers a decompression rate that averages the known initial (0.009 MPa s− 1) and final (0.06 MPa s− 1) stages. On the other hand, the two-stage model recovers an initial rate of 0.008 MPa s− 1 (0.009 MPa s− 1 expected) that transitions at 80 MPa (the imposed transition pressure) to 0.1 MPa s− 1 (0.06 MPa s− 1 expected; Fig. 4). This translates to a total ascent time of 2.57 h recov- ered by the two-stage model, in close agreement with the known decompression duration (2.39 h), as well as a very well-constrained final stage of decompression (8.3 mins recovered vs. 13.8 mins expected). These results suggest that modeling multiple diffusing species simulta- neously provides crucial constraints for resolving the true decompres- sion path, and more significantly, that a mixed-volatile system that has experienced multi-stage or accelerating magma decompression may not be successfully modeled using a constant-rate approach with ’melt in- clusion’ starting conditions (Fig. 4). Finally, in applying the constant- rate model of Hosseini et al. (2023), as well as EDiTS, to the stalled embayment (E1–2), we are unable to simultaneously fit H2O and CO2 concentration gradients. This optimistically suggests that neither constant-rate nor two-stage models may reproduce embayment volatile profiles generated by more complex scenarios, such as hours of crustal stalling. A final important observation is that the saturation pressure pre- served in the interior of each of the two continuously-decompressed (i. e., not stalled) experimental embayments (3.55 wt% H2O = 80 MPa for E4–2 and 3.16 wt%H2O+ 264 ppm CO2= 110MPa for E3–2; calculated using the solubility model of Liu et al. (2005) in VESIcal: Iacovino et al., Fig. 3. Modeling results for embayment E4–2, shown in transmitted light in the upper left and annotated with the measured transect, with inset showing a cartoon rendering of the host crystal for context. E4–2 was recovered from a H2O-saturated experiment that decompressed from 150 to 100 MPa at 0.006 MPa s− 1, and from 100 to 30 MPa at 0.02 MPa s− 1. Horizontal gray bar denotes the starting condition used to model this embayment (5.1 wt% H2O), determined by an H2O-saturated equilibrium (dwell) experiment conducted by Hosseini et al. (2023) at 780 ◦C and 150 MPa. Measured transect shown as teal circles. Black curves indicate the expected profile and light teal curves the recovered best-fit profile, both for the initial stage (dashed) and the final stage (solid) of decompression. Also shown is the best-fit profile using the constant-rate model of Hosseini et al. (2023) (dark teal curve). Shaded gray curved region signifies the range of good model fits to the measured profile at a fixed transition pressure (100 MPa). Analytical error shown as light gray vertical bars on measured points. Lower right χ2 misfit contour plot illustrates the range of initial decompression rates (x-axis) at a fixed transition pressure (100 MPa) that produce good model fits, compared to much more constrained final rates (y-axis). The misfits for the expected (orange star) and recovered (yellow star) model fits are shown. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 7 2021) is within ~20–30 MPa of the transition pressure imposed in the experiment (Figs. 3 and 4). Although this is not necessarily a surprising result, as the increased final decompression rate will provide less time for interior relaxation to occur, it does provide some useful constraints on model input parameters. We therefore suggest that when applying EDiTS to natural embayments the user should use the saturation pres- sure preserved in the embayment interior plateau to inform the range of transition pressures cycled through during a model run. This will also help reduce the model run time and convergence on a best-fit solution, since there is a significant tradeoff between initial decompression rate and transition pressure which results in many equally good fits to the measured profiles. To again test the result of applying a multi-stage decompression code to an embayment that experienced a known constant-rate path, we applied EDiTS to a subset of embayments from the pure H2O- andmixed- volatile (H2O + CO2) saturated, constant-rate experiments presented in Hosseini et al. (2023). The H2O-saturated experiment (E8–1) was decompressed from 150 to 30 MPa at 0.015 MPa s− 1 and the H2O + CO2 experiment (E3–1) decompressed from 150 to 30 MPa at 0.008 MPa s− 1. For embayment E8–1, EDiTS recovers a best-fit profile characterized by an initial decompression rate of 0.004 MPa s− 1 that transitions at 60 MPa to 0.015 MPa s− 1. Although the recovered final stage of decom- pression equals the imposed rate (0.015 MPa s− 1), the initial slow stage adds several hours to the total ascent time (e.g., ~6.5 h recovered vs. 2.2 h imposed) while maintaining a similarly low misfit (χ2 = 0.02 for two- stage vs. 0.03 for constant-rate). We find a similar result for embayment E3–1 from the mixed-volatile experiment; while EDiTS recovers a best- fit profile defined by an initial decompression rate of 0.007 MPa s− 1 that transitions at 50 MPa to 0.01 MPa s− 1 (~4.5 h of ascent time), the experienced constant decompression rate was 0.008 MPa s− 1 from 150 to 30 MPa (~4.2 h of ascent time). Thus, similar to the synthetic test results, we find that in both H2O-only and mixed-volatile systems, EDiTS can produce a false positive result, meaning a best-fit diffusion profile characterized by two stages of decompression can be recovered even when the embayment experienced a constant rate of decompression (Table 2). We argue, however, that this result is a red herring and does not have any bearing on the application of EDiTS to natural systems, since most natural magmas are unlikely to experience a constant, linear decompression history from storage to fragmentation. 3. Model application 3.1. Revisiting existing embayment studies To date, there have been 14 embayment studies published on rhyo- litic to basaltic systems, representing 27 eruptions (14 pre-historic and 13 historic) and including over 200 embayments (Table 1). Below, we present results from applying EDiTS to a subset of previously modeled embayments (n = 5), reevaluating four pre-historic eruptions (all caldera-forming, rhyolitic; Table 3), as well as reassessing the Fig. 4. Modeling results for embayment E3–2, shown in transmitted light in the upper right and annotated with the measured transect, with inset showing a cartoon rendering of the host crystal for context. E3–2 was recovered from a mixed-volatile (H2O + CO2)-saturated experiment that decompressed from 150 to 80 MPa at 0.009 MPa s− 1, and from 80 to 30 MPa at 0.06 MPa s− 1. Horizontal gray bars on upper (H2O) and lower (CO2) plots denote the starting conditions used to model this embayment (3.4 wt% H2O and 425 ppm CO2), as determined by the mixed-volatile saturated dwell experiments of Hosseini et al. (2023), conducted at 780 ◦C and 150 MPa. Measured transects shown as green circles. Black curves indicate the expected profile, and light green curves the recovered best-fit profile, both for the initial (dashed) and final (solid) stages of decompression. Also shown is the best-fit profile using the constant-rate model of Hosseini et al. (2023) (dark green curve). Shaded gray curved region signifies the range of good model fits to the measured profile at a fixed transition pressure (80 MPa). Analytical error shown as light gray vertical bars on measured points. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.) B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 8 embayments (n = 3) from the closely monitored and well-documented May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (rhyo-dacitic) (Table 3; Fig. 5). To allow for comparability of EDiTS results with those presented in the original constant-rate modeling studies, we use the same starting H2O ± CO2 and corresponding pressures, quench pressures, and exsolved gas contents as the original studies. 3.1.1. Applications to pre-historic eruptions The majority of embayments from pre-historic caldera-forming eruptions have lacked measurable CO2, although co-erupted melt in- clusions often contain a moderate amount (Table 1). The sparsity of CO2 in embayments from many eruptions (e.g., Bandelier, NM, USA; Bishop, CA, USA; Oruanui, NZ) has been interpreted to result from one or both of the following scenarios: either CO2 was driven out of the system prior to eruption due to isobaric crystallization (e.g., second boiling), or the system experienced an initial slow stage of ascent prior to eruption permitting CO2 re-equilibration (Myers et al., 2018, 2021; Saalfeld et al., 2022). We applied EDiTS to these systems to test previously presented ideas, allowing for melt inclusion H2O ± CO2 concentrations to be used as starting conditions. We remodeled measured volatile gradients from five select embayments from four caldera systems (Yellowstone, WY; Valles, NM; Long Valley, CA; Taupo, NZ), targeting samples with both H2O and CO2 gradients present, when possible, for better modeling constraints (Table 3). We find that for all systems, volatile gradients are best fit with an initial deeper decompression stage equivalent to 3.5–11 h, a final shallower stage equivalent to hours to 10s of minutes, and transition pressures (70–155 MPa) that agree closely with embayment interior pressures (Table 3). This lends credence to the idea that for eruptions with CO2-bearing melt inclusions, embayments with low-no CO2 could be a record of longer (>10 h) initial decompression, allow- ing partial to full re-equilibration to occur, as was suggested for 1974 eruption of Fuego (Lloyd et al., 2014), the Late Bronze Age eruption of Santorini (Myers et al., 2021), and the 1.6 and 1.2 Ma eruptions of the Bandelier Tuff (Saalfeld et al., 2022). Further, our two-stage model may better constrain the final, explosive stage of each eruption, providing times on the order of 10s of minutes, where the constant-rate model produces total ascent times on the order of hours. However, because pre- historic eruptions lack independent, real-time constraints on magma ascent rates, we are limited in terms of howwe interpret and validate the EDiTS results, and so, as a case study, we turn our assessment to a modern, instrumented eruption that includes both independent petro- logic (e.g., bubble number densities) and real-time observational decompression rate estimates: the May 18th, 1980 Plinian eruption of Mount St. Helens. 3.1.2. Applications to historic instrumented eruptions Integrating petrologic records with real-time observations of magma ascent and eruption remains a great ambition of volcano science (e.g., Rasmussen et al., 2018; Ruth et al., 2018; Caricchi et al., 2021). While the fidelity of embayments to record magma decompression has been well-established (e.g., Hosseini et al., 2023), the recovered rates have largely remained decoupled from independent records (e.g., Fig. 6a). We argue that this discordance between different decompression rate esti- mates is in part an artifact of the model framework. We next demon- strate the ability of EDiTS to reconcile embayment- and monitoring- based magma ascent rates, as applied to the 1980 Plinian eruption of Mount St. Helens (Washington, USA). OnMay 18th, 1980 at 0832 PDT, a magnitude 5 earthquake triggered the failure of the north flank leading to, in sequence, a debris avalanche, lateral blast, and eruptive column (Voight et al., 1981; Kieffer, 1981; Eichelberger and Hayes, 1982). Sustained Plinian activity continued for nine hours, with the eruption column reaching a mean height of 16 km (Carey and Sigurdsson, 1985; Carey et al., 1990). The record of strong ground shaking for the May 18th eruption reveals two distinct phases of activity, where the first coincides with the M5 earthquake, landslide, and lateral blast, lasting ~15 min (Scandone and Malone, 1985). The onset of the second phaseTa bl e 3 Re su lts fr om re m od el in g em ba ym en ts fr om fo ur si lic ic ca ld er a- fo rm in g (H uc kl eb er ry ,B an de lie r, Bi sh op ,O ru an ui ) an d on e ar c (M ay 18 th ,1 98 0 M ou nt St .H el en s) er up tio n us in g ED iT S, an d co m pa ri so n w ith or ig in al co ns ta nt -r at e m od el in g re su lts fr om :[ †] M ye rs et al .( 20 18 ), [‡ ] Sa al fe ld et al .( 20 22 ), an d [ο ] H um ph re ys et al .( 20 08 ). (- ) in di ca te s th at CO 2 w as no tm ea su re d in th e or ig in al st ud y, an d χ2 m is fit s w er e no tr ep or te d. Co ns ta nt -r at e m od el Tw o- st ag e m od el (E D iT S) Er up tio n Sa m pl e St ar tin g pr es su re (M Pa ) H 2O (w t% ) CO 2 (p pm ) D ec om pr es si on ra te (M Pa s− 1 ) Q ue nc h pr es su re (M Pa ) A sc en t ra te (m s-1 ) A sc en t tim e (m in s) χ2 D ec om pr es si on ra te (i ni tia l) (M Pa s− 1 ) D ec om pr es si on ra te (fi na l) (M Pa s− 1 ) Tr an si tio n pr es su re (M Pa ) A sc en tr at e (i ni tia l) (m s-1 ) A sc en tr at e (fi na l) (m s-1 ) A sc en tt im e (i ni tia l) (m in ) A sc en tt im e (fi na l) (m in ) χ2 H uc kl eb er ry † M M 7 RE no . 10 15 0 4. 1 32 5 0. 02 7 17 1. 06 82 .2 0. 20 0. 00 2 0. 06 3 70 0. 08 2. 47 68 0 13 .8 0. 75 Ba nd el ie r‡ T1 –3 16 2 5. 5 57 0. 00 5 15 0. 18 50 0 0. 33 0. 00 4 0. 1 20 0. 16 1. 95 59 2 1. 8 0. 08 Ba nd el ie r‡ T2 –3 12 1 4. 5 11 7 0. 00 7 30 0. 28 21 5 4. 22 0. 00 1 0. 03 7 80 0. 04 1. 45 67 7 19 .2 0. 55 Bi sh op † BT F9 _1 38 RE no .2 22 0 5. 4 47 5 0. 04 2 30 1. 53 83 .4 0. 9 0. 00 5 0. 06 15 5 0. 20 2. 35 21 7 43 0. 68 O ru an ui † P1 97 0- A RE no .6 19 0 5. 0 32 5 0. 01 7 45 0. 67 14 2. 2 0. 34 0. 00 5 0. 08 75 0. 20 3. 14 38 3 6 0. 48 M SH ο KV C5 18 b 23 0 6. 4 - 1. 4 33 54 .8 9 2. 4 - 0. 00 9 0. 76 60 0. 35 29 .8 0 39 2 0. 6 0. 9 M SH ο M SH 1- 3 23 0 6. 4 - 1. 6 27 62 .7 3 2. 4 - 0. 01 0. 23 10 0 0. 39 9. 02 28 7 5. 4 4. 1 M SH ο M SH 1- 6 23 0 6. 4 - 1. 3 9 50 .9 7 3 - 0. 00 8 0. 65 90 0. 31 25 .4 8 37 9 1. 8 4. 8 B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 9 manifested as strong ground motion accompanied by an eruptive col- umn ~3.5 h after the lateral blast; this was used to calculate magma ascent on the order of 0.6–0.7 m s− 1 from 7 to 9 km depth (Fig. 6; Scandone and Malone, 1985; Eichelberger, 1995). This sequence has been interpreted as the eruption of a shallow magmatic body (lateral blast) that triggered the ascent of deep, volatile-rich magma (Plinian phase). Currently there is an orders-of-magnitude discrepancy between the rapid embayment-based decompression rates (1.3–1.6 MPa s− 1 assuming CH2Oi= 6.4 wt% and 0.9–1.2 MPa s− 1 assuming CH2Oi= 4.6 wt %) presented by Humphreys et al. (2008) using a constant-rate model, and those estimated by independent real-time observations and seis- micity (0.01–0.02 MPa s− 1; Endo et al., 1981, Scandone and Malone, 1985, Eichelberger, 1995) (Fig. 6a). We apply EDiTS to remodel grayscale-calibrated H2O concentration gradients in these plagioclase- hosted embayments (n = 3) from the Plinian (May 18th) phase of the eruption (Humphreys et al., 2008), allowing for the incorporation of an initial deeper stage of decompression (Table 3; Fig. 5). Assuming the same input parameters presented by Humphreys et al. (2008) and derived from Blundy and Cashman (2005) and Blundy et al. (2006) (i.e., CH2Oi = 6.4 wt% H2O, Pi = 230 MPa, T = 880 ◦C), EDiTS recovers best fit profiles characterized by an initial slow decompression (0.008–0.01 MPa s− 1) followed by a final stage up to two orders of magnitude faster (0.2–0.8 MPa s− 1). Combined with recovered transi- tion pressures (60–100 MPa, 2.4–4 km), initial ascent rates and times range from 0.3 to 0.4 m s− 1 and 4.8–6.5 h, respectively, with final ascent rates of 9–30 m s− 1 translating to <1–5 min in the shallow conduit (Fig. 5). These final rates are significantly faster than those determined for the larger caldera forming eruptions above, but are in agreement with numerical conduit model predictions (e.g., Mastin, 2005). More importantly, our results bring petrologic estimates of magma ascent into closer agreement with the monitoring record by supporting the presence of an initial slower stage of magma decompression on the order of hours, where previously the total embayment-derived ascent time was 2.4–3 min (Fig. 6). We additionally find reconciliation between the final decompression rates recorded by the embayment population (0.2–0.8 MPa s− 1) and updated bubble number density estimates based on time- integrated, heterogeneous bubble nucleation models (0.8 MPa s− 1; Hajimirza et al., 2021; Fig. 6b). Although based on a limited dataset, these results give confidence that embayments, when combined with appropriate diffusion models, can provide valuable and complementary insights into the rates of magma ascent for historic, well-monitored and instrumented eruptions. 4. Broad implications Our combined numerical and experimental results suggest that the melt embayment can record, and models can be developed to recover, multi-stage decompression histories that provide crucial insights into Fig. 5. EDiTS applied to embayments (a) MSH1–6, (b) MSH1–3, and (c) KVC518b of Humphreys et al. (2008). Using the same high melt inclusion starting condition (6.4 wt%, gray horizontal bar), the two-stage model recovers an initial stage of decompression spanning 4.78–6.54 h (light arrow and horizontal bar), and a final stage <1–5 min (dark arrow and curve), whereas the original estimate was 2.4–3 min of total ascent time. The cartoon to the right of each panel (a-c) shows the plagioclase crystal containing the analyzed embayment, along with the annotated grayscale transect (white lines). All grayscale transect data plotted in (a-c) are sourced from Humphreys et al. (2008). (d) Pressure-time plot comparing results from the single-stage model of Humphreys et al. (2008)† (1.3–1.6 MPa s− 1) and EDiTS applied to the same suite of Mount St. Helens embayments. EDiTS recovers consistent initial ascent rates ranging from 0.31 to 0.39 m s− 1, with final ascent rates up to two orders of magnitude faster (9–30 m s− 1). Horizontal gray bars represent the range of Pinitial, Pintermediate, and Pfinal used for modeling MSH em- bayments. Pintermediate is a free parameter in the model, and should be controlled dynamically by where H2O begins to rapidly exsolve. Model input parameters are shown in the lower right of the plot, including a starting pressure of 230 MPa, final pressures between 9 and 33 MPa, an isothermal temperature of 880 ◦C, initial H2O of 6.4 wt%, and melt density of 2500 kg m− 3. B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 10 how quickly magma ascends to the surface during explosive volcanic eruptions. Applying EDiTS to H2O + CO2 profiles in embayments from both pre-historic and modern eruptions provides consistent results that magma ascent from the storage region and through the deeper conduit can be quite slow, with the shallower conduit characterized by faster ascent times on the order of an hour to minutes. For the May 18th, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, we find that EDiTS more effectively re- solves the time of initial decompression in the deep conduit, which pairs well with independent estimates of magma ascent (e.g., direct obser- vations and seismicity). Final decompression in the shallow conduit occurs on the order of minutes and is in close agreement with time- integrated bubble number density decompression estimates, as was similarly shown for the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Hajimirza et al., 2021; Harris et al., 2024). We argue that the embayment is the only petrologic tool from which we are currently able to recover mul- tiple decompression rates representative of a single magma’s decom- pression path along different regions of the conduit. Previous studies have presented evidence that initial magma ascent can be aseismic (i.e., too slow to produce detectable seismicity), as was the case for the 2009 eruption of Redoubt Volcano (Roman and Cashman, 2018). Our study highlights that melt embayment geospeedometry, while largely a retrospective approach to understanding magma ascent rates, can potentially identify systems that experience slow magmatic ascent leading to staging in the crust which may not be detectable in all cases via seismic monitoring. Where in some systems this will allow for the merging of monitoring and petrologic approaches for refining models of magma ascent, in systems that lack monitoring datasets (i.e., pre- historic eruptions), the embayment could provide important insights into the behavior of magma ascent to inform on future monitoring efforts. Lastly, we highlight some outstanding challenges for the embayment modeling community. Most notably, the non-uniqueness of best-fit so- lutions in H2O-saturated systems, especially for approximating the initial decompression rate, begs further investigation into whether modeling a single diffusive species is a reliable approach to recovering magma decompression rates, especially in the absence of any indepen- dent decompression rate estimates. Secondly, the ability of EDiTS to successfully model both synthetic and experimental embayment volatile profiles produced by constant-rate decompression (i.e., a false positive result) further highlights the challenges of embayment modeling and interpretation. Again, however, we argue that because magma ascent is dynamically a nonlinear process, this result should not impact the application of EDiTS to natural systems. Finally, embayment modeling assumptions (e.g., degassing mechanism; deGraffenried and Shea, 2021) shown to have significant influence on calculated decompression rates require further investigation and incorporation into future iterations of embayment diffusion models. Numerical conduit models that consider the influence of disequilibrium degassing of H2O and CO2 on predicted decompression rates have been recently developed for basaltic magmas (e.g., La Spina et al., 2016, 2021, 2022; Bamber et al., 2022, 2024). The embayment modeling community would similarly benefit from the incorporation of these complexities in future iterations of embayment models for all melt compositions. 5. Conclusions In this study, we have developed, validated, and applied a new two- stage decompression-diffusion model for melt embayments: Embayment Decompression in Two Stages (EDiTS). After successfully numerically benchmarking EDiTS, we used high pressure-temperature decompres- sion experiments on natural embayments to determine how faithfully they record, and how reliably EDiTS recovers, the imposed decom- pression paths. While EDiTS performs well in mixed-volatile (H2O + CO2) systems, we note challenges in applying EDiTS to (1) H2O-satu- rated systems and (2) embayment volatile profiles generated both syn- thetically and experimentally by a constant-rate decompression (i.e., false positive results). To address (1), we suggest using the interior embayment saturation pressures to constrain the range of model pa- rameters cycled through. For (2), we argue that, because magma dynamically does not experience constant, linear decompression, these false positive results do not necessarily have any bearing on the appli- cation of EDiTS to natural systems. Fig. 6. Compilation of magma decompression rates for the May 18th, 1980 Plinian eruption of Mount St. Helens, based on petrological, observational, and numerical approaches. (a) In the “Old View,” magma decompression rate es- timates span five orders of magnitude between different petrologic recorders, with no overlap between any approach. Further, we find no agreement between petrologic estimates and other independent, direct observations. (b) Notably EDiTS brings embayment-based ascent time estimates (4.8–6.5 h) into closer agreement with observational data, which indicate the onset of the second Plinian explosive pulse occurred 3.5 h following the unroofing of the system due to an earthquake-triggered landslide and blast. Additionally, application of new models incorporating time-integrated, heterogeneous bubble nucleation into models of vesicle number densities lower original estimates by two orders of magnitude, in good agreement with the final rapid stage of decompression recovered from embayments using our two-stage model (Hajimirza et al., 2021). Data sources are as follows: [1] Toramaru (2006), [2] Carey and Sigurdsson (1985), [3] Humphreys et al. (2008), [4] Endo et al. (1981), [5] Scandone and Malone (1985), [6] Eichelberger (1995), [7] Rutherford and Hill (1993), [8] Hajimirza et al. (2021) and [9] Andrews and Befus (2020). B. Hosseini and M. Myers Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 456 (2024) 108211 11 Through application of EDiTS to existing embayment datasets, we find that initial decompression in the deep conduit can occur over hours, while the shallow conduit is characterized by much faster decompres- sion on the order of minutes. For the May 18th, 1980 Plinian eruption of Mount St. Helens in particular, EDiTS is able to reconcile embayment- based estimates of magma decompression with both real-time observa- tions and independent petrologic recorders. Altogether, our work em- phasizes that embayments can preserve nuanced records of magma ascent and should be leveraged in actively monitored settings for an integrated understanding of magma movement from the deep conduit to the surface. This is especially true for systems containing multiple diffusing species (e.g., H2O, CO2, S). We thus recommend the develop- ment of similar multi-stage decompression models applicable to and parameterized for more intermediate to basaltic melt compositions. As these are also more frequently active systems, the volcano community would be positioned to pair embayment decompression rates with robust, independent observations of magma ascent and eruption. CRediT authorship contribution statement Behnaz Hosseini:Writing – original draft, Visualization, Validation, Software, Project administration, Methodology, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Formal analysis, Data curation, Conceptualization. Madi- son Myers: Writing – review & editing, Supervision, Software, Re- sources, Project administration, Methodology, Investigation, Funding acquisition, Conceptualization. Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. Data availability We have included GitHub and Zenodo links for the EDiTS model presented in the paper: https://zenodo.org/record/10042159. We also have included experimental and analytical data in the supplement. Acknowledgements We acknowledge and thank Jim Watkins for assistance with con- ducting experiments at the University of Oregon and for fruitful dis- cussions in the early stages of model development. The authors also thank Fabio Arzilli and Rebecca deGraffenried for thorough and constructive reviews that greatly improved this publication, and Ed Llewellin for editorial handling. This work was supported by National Science Foundation EAR Award 1922513 to M.M., and Mineralogical Society of America‘s Grant for Student Research in Mineralogy and Petrology and the Geological Society of America‘s Graduate Student Research Grant to B.H. Appendix A. Supplementary data All data associated with this study are presented in this paper or otherwise available in the supplemental document. Appendix A. Sup- plementary Material contains detailed experimental and analytical procedures and results, as well as schematics of the EDiTS model ar- chitecture, numerical benchmarking results, and the experimental capsule set-up. Supplementary data to this article can be found online at [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108211]. References Andrews, B.J., Befus, K.S., 2020. Supersaturation Nucleation and Growth of Plagioclase: A numerical model of decompression-induced crystallization. Contrib. Mineral. Petrol. 175 (23), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00410-020-1660-9. Bamber, E.C., La Spina, G., Arzilli, F., de ’Michieli Vitturi, M., Polacci, M., Hartley, M.E., Petrelli, M., Fellowes, J., Burton, M., 2022. Basaltic Plinian eruptions at Las Sierras- Masaya volcano driven by cool storage of crystal-rich magmas. Commun. Earth Environ. 3 (1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00585-5. 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