Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Joseph AtwoodAlSaad, Faisal Khalid2022-04-222022-04-222021https://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/16341This paper examined the 2012 presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on the stock market. Presidential elections pose a political uncertainty that can be hedged using the stock market. The paper constructs three portfolios using three different weighting methods: equally weighted, market capital, and individuals' donations. This study uses Fama and French 5-Factor model to estimate the annual return for Obama's and Romney's portfolios. The results show that Obama's portfolio generates an annual expected return of 11.8%, 35.6%, and 39.5% for equally weighted, market capital and donation, respectively. The results also show that Romney's portfolio generates annual expected returns of 5%, 26.2%, and - 0.8% for equally weighted, market capital, and donation, respectively. Investors can adjust their investment portfolio position by observing the candidates' probability of winning the election. This paper establishes a stock market pattern before presidential elections that investors can capitalize on to ensure against the effects of political uncertainty upon the value of their investment portfolio.enPolitical candidatesElectionsStocksInvestmentsPolitics, PracticalThesisCopyright 2021 by Faisal Khalid AlSaad