Obryk, Maciej K.Doran, Peter T.Priscu, John C.2019-08-262019-08-262019-02Obryk, M. K., P. T. Doran, and J. C. Priscu. “Prediction of Ice‐Free Conditions for a Perennially Ice‐Covered Antarctic Lake.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 124, no. 2 (February 2019): 686–694. doi:10.1029/2018jf004756.2169-9003https://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/15638Although perennially ice‐covered Antarctic lakes have experienced variable ice thicknesses over the past several decades, future ice thickness trends and associated aquatic biological responses under projected global warming remain unknown. Heat stored in the water column in chemically stratified Antarctic lakes that have middepth temperature maxima can significantly influence the ice thickness trends via upward heat flux to the ice/water interface. We modeled the ice thickness of the west lobe of Lake Bonney, Antarctica, based on possible future climate scenarios utilizing a 1D thermodynamic model that accounts for surface radiative fluxes as well as the heat flux associated with the temperature evolution of the water column. Model results predict that the ice cover of Lake Bonney will shift from perennial to seasonal within one to four decades, a change that will drastically influence ecosystem processes within the lake.This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/Article