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dc.contributor.authorSalganik, Matthew J.
dc.contributor.authorLundberg, Ian
dc.contributor.authorKindel, Alexander T.
dc.contributor.authorAhearn, Caitlin E.
dc.contributor.authorAl-Ghoneim, Khaled
dc.contributor.authorAlmaatouq, Abdullah
dc.contributor.authorAltschul, Drew M.
dc.contributor.authorBrand, Jennie E.
dc.contributor.authorCarnegie, Nicole B.
dc.contributor.authorCompton, Ryan James
dc.contributor.authorDatta, Debanjan
dc.contributor.authorDavidson, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorFilippova, Anna
dc.contributor.authorGilroy, Connor
dc.contributor.authorGoode, Brian J.
dc.contributor.authorJahani, Eaman
dc.contributor.authorKashyap, Ridhi
dc.contributor.authorKirchner, Antje
dc.contributor.authorMcKay, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorMorgan, Allison
dc.contributor.authorPentland, Alex
dc.contributor.authorPolimis, Kivan
dc.contributor.authorRaes, Louis
dc.contributor.authorRigobon, Daniel E.
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, Claudia V.
dc.contributor.authorStanescu, Diana M.
dc.contributor.authorSuhara, Yoshihiko
dc.contributor.authorUsmani, Adaner
dc.contributor.authorWang, Erik H.
dc.contributor.authorBaer-Bositis, Livia
dc.contributor.authorBuchi, Moritz
dc.contributor.authorChung, Bo-Ryehn
dc.contributor.authorEggert, William
dc.contributor.authorFaletto, Gregory
dc.contributor.authorFan, Zhilin
dc.contributor.authorFreese, Jeremy
dc.contributor.authorGadgil, Tejomay
dc.contributor.authorGagne, Josh
dc.contributor.authorGao, Yue
dc.contributor.authorHalpern-Manners, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorHashim, Sophia P.
dc.contributor.authorHausen, Sonia
dc.contributor.authorHe, Guanhua
dc.contributor.authorHiguera, Kimberly
dc.contributor.authorHogan, Bernie
dc.contributor.authorHorwitz, Ilana M.
dc.contributor.authorHummel, Lisa M.
dc.contributor.authorJain, Naman
dc.contributor.authorJin, Kun
dc.contributor.authorJurgens, David
dc.contributor.authorKaminski, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorKarapetyan, Areg
dc.contributor.authorKim, E. H.
dc.contributor.authorLeizman, Ben
dc.contributor.authorLiu, Naijia
dc.contributor.authorMoser, Malte
dc.contributor.authorMack, Andrew E.
dc.contributor.authorMahajan, Mayank
dc.contributor.authorMandell, Noah
dc.contributor.authorMarahrens, Helge
dc.contributor.authorMercado-Garcia, Diana
dc.contributor.authorMocz, Viola
dc.contributor.authorMueller-Gastell, Katariina
dc.contributor.authorMusse, Ahmed
dc.contributor.authorNiu, Qiankun
dc.contributor.authorNowak, William
dc.contributor.authorOmidvar, Hamidreza
dc.contributor.authorOr, Andrew
dc.contributor.authorOuyang, Karen
dc.contributor.authorPinto, Katy M.
dc.contributor.authorPorter, Ethan
dc.contributor.authorPorter, Kristin E.
dc.contributor.authorQian, Crystal
dc.contributor.authorRauf, Tamkinat
dc.contributor.authorSargsyan, Anahit
dc.contributor.authorSchaffner, Thomas
dc.contributor.authorSchnabel, Landon
dc.contributor.authorSchonfeld, Bryan
dc.contributor.authorSender, Ben
dc.contributor.authorTang, Jonathan D.
dc.contributor.authorTsurkov, Emma
dc.contributor.authorvan Loon, Austin
dc.contributor.authorVarol, Onur
dc.contributor.authorWang, Xiafei
dc.contributor.authorWang, Zhi
dc.contributor.authorWang, Flora
dc.contributor.authorWeissman, Samantha
dc.contributor.authorWhitaker, Kristie
dc.contributor.authorWolters, Maria K.
dc.contributor.authorWoon, Wei Lee
dc.contributor.authorWu, James
dc.contributor.authorWu, Catherine
dc.contributor.authorYang, Kengran
dc.contributor.authorYin, Jingwen
dc.contributor.authorZhao, Bingyu
dc.contributor.authorZhu, Chenyun
dc.contributor.authorBrooks-Gunn, Jeanne
dc.contributor.authorEngelhardt, Barbara E.
dc.contributor.authorHardt, Moritz
dc.contributor.authorKnox, Dean
dc.contributor.authorLevy, Karen
dc.contributor.authorNarayanan, Arvind
dc.contributor.authorStewart, Brandon M.
dc.contributor.authorWatts, Duncan J.
dc.contributor.authorMcLanahan, Sara
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-21T22:01:03Z
dc.date.available2021-01-21T22:01:03Z
dc.date.issued2020-04
dc.identifier.citationSalganik, Matthew J., Ian Lundberg, Alexander T. Kindel, Caitlin E. Ahearn, Khaled Al-Ghoneim, Abdullah Almaatouq, Drew M. Altschul, et al. “Measuring the Predictability of Life Outcomes with a Scientific Mass Collaboration.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 15 (March 30, 2020): 8398–8403. doi:10.1073/pnas.1915006117.en_US
dc.identifier.issn8398-8403
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/xmlui/handle/1/16106
dc.description.abstractHow predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.rights© This published version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.en_US
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en_US
dc.titleMeasuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaborationen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
mus.citation.extentfirstpage8398en_US
mus.citation.extentlastpage8403en_US
mus.citation.issue15en_US
mus.citation.journaltitleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Americaen_US
mus.citation.volume117en_US
mus.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1915006117en_US
mus.relation.collegeCollege of Letters & Scienceen_US
mus.relation.departmentMathematical Sciences.en_US
mus.relation.universityMontana State University - Bozemanen_US
mus.data.thumbpage3en_US


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