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dc.contributor.advisorChairperson, Graduate Committee: Joseph Atwooden
dc.contributor.authorAlSaad, Faisal Khaliden
dc.coverage.spatialUnited Statesen
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-22T16:48:08Z
dc.date.available2022-04-22T16:48:08Z
dc.date.issued2021en
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/xmlui/handle/1/16341en
dc.description.abstractThis paper examined the 2012 presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on the stock market. Presidential elections pose a political uncertainty that can be hedged using the stock market. The paper constructs three portfolios using three different weighting methods: equally weighted, market capital, and individuals' donations. This study uses Fama and French 5-Factor model to estimate the annual return for Obama's and Romney's portfolios. The results show that Obama's portfolio generates an annual expected return of 11.8%, 35.6%, and 39.5% for equally weighted, market capital and donation, respectively. The results also show that Romney's portfolio generates annual expected returns of 5%, 26.2%, and - 0.8% for equally weighted, market capital, and donation, respectively. Investors can adjust their investment portfolio position by observing the candidates' probability of winning the election. This paper establishes a stock market pattern before presidential elections that investors can capitalize on to ensure against the effects of political uncertainty upon the value of their investment portfolio.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherMontana State University - Bozeman, College of Agricultureen
dc.subject.lcshPolitical candidatesen
dc.subject.lcshElectionsen
dc.subject.lcshStocksen
dc.subject.lcshInvestmentsen
dc.subject.lcshPolitics, Practicalen
dc.titleInvesting in a presidenten
dc.typeThesisen
dc.rights.holderCopyright 2021 by Faisal Khalid AlSaaden
thesis.degree.committeemembersMembers, Graduate Committee: Frank Kerins; Eric Belasco; Justin Gallagheren
thesis.degree.departmentAgricultural Economics & Economics.en
thesis.degree.genreThesisen
thesis.degree.nameMSen
thesis.format.extentfirstpage1en
thesis.format.extentlastpage68en
mus.data.thumbpage42en


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