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dc.contributor.advisorChairperson, Graduate Committee: John M. Marsh.en
dc.contributor.authorTronstad, Russell Elien
dc.coverage.spatialUnited Statesen
dc.date.accessioned2013-06-25T18:42:26Z
dc.date.available2013-06-25T18:42:26Z
dc.date.issued1985en
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/xmlui/handle/1/2443en
dc.description.abstractWheat, flour, and bread prices fluctuate at all levels of the market. Accurate forecasts of these prices are valuable to buyers and sellers that trade in the cash and futures markets. Rational distributed lag models of monthly prices from June 1977 to May 1984 for Kansas City No. 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat, Minneapolis Dark Northern Spring Wheat, Portland No. 1 Soft White Wheat, Kansas City flour, and retail bread prices are made to evaluate the economic or structural factors influencing price. Multivariate autoregressive-integrated-moving average error (ARIMA) models are also used to compare with the structural models price forecasting ability. Rational lags are estimated using a nonlinear least squares algorithm, incorporating the specification of nonstochastic difference equations so that the disturbance process is divorced from the systematic portion of the difference equations. Certain economic factors are found to be significant in Influencing the prices of wheat, flour, and bread. Partial derivatives and price flexibilities are calculated to estimate the short, intermediate, and long-run adjustments of prices in the structural models. In the structural models total wheat stocks are the most Influential variable in determining wheat prices and the price of wheat was most influential in the flour price equation. Flour price is highly significant in influencing retail bread price, with the secular effects of income increasing over time. The price forecasting abilities of the structural and ARIMA are found to be relatively close when comparing the Root Mean Square Errors and the adjusted coefficients of determination.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherMontana State University - Bozeman, College of Agricultureen
dc.subject.lcshCommodity exchanges.en
dc.subject.lcshFlour.en
dc.subject.lcshWheat.en
dc.subject.lcshBread.en
dc.subject.lcshPrices.en
dc.subject.lcshMathematical models.en
dc.titleAn analysis of monthly wheat, flour, and bread prices in a structural and time series frameworken
dc.typeThesisen
dc.rights.holderCopyright Russell Eli Tronstad 1985en
thesis.catalog.ckey18219en
thesis.degree.committeemembersMembers, Graduate Committee: Gail Cramer; Michael D. Frank; Oscar Burt; Jeffrey T. LaFranceen
thesis.degree.departmentAgricultural Economics & Economics.en
thesis.degree.genreThesisen
thesis.degree.nameMSen
thesis.format.extentfirstpage1en
thesis.format.extentlastpage65en
mus.relation.departmentAgricultural Economics & Economics.en_US


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