Montana State University (MSU) Library in Bozeman Montana State University - Home Montana State University Libraries - Home
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   ScholarWorks Home
    • Scholarship & Research
    • Publications by Colleges and Departments (MSU- Bozeman)
    • College of Letters & Science
    • Ecology
    • Scholarly Work - Ecology
    • View Item
    •   ScholarWorks Home
    • Scholarship & Research
    • Publications by Colleges and Departments (MSU- Bozeman)
    • College of Letters & Science
    • Ecology
    • Scholarly Work - Ecology
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    Postprint (2.485Mb)
    Date
    2014-12
    Author
    Lindner, Marcus
    Fitzgerald, Joanne B.
    Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
    Reyer, Christopher
    Delzon, Sylvain
    van der Maaten, Ernst
    Schelhaas, Mart-Jan
    Lasch, Petra
    Eggers, Jeanette
    van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke
    Suckow, Felicitas
    Psomas, Achilleas
    Poulter, Benjamin
    Hanewinkel, Marc
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty e which is imperative for decision making e without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.
    URI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030
    https://scholarworks.montana.edu/xmlui/handle/1/8741
    DOI
    10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030
    Citation
    Lindner, Marcus, Joanne B. Fitzgerald, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Christopher Reyer, Sylvain Delzon, Ernst van der Maaten, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Petra Lasch, Jeannette Eggers, Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen, Felicitas Suckow, Achilleas Psomas, Benjamin Poulter, and Marc Hanewinkel. "Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?." Journal of environmental management 146 (2014): 69-83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.07.030
    Collections
    • Scholarly Work - Ecology

    MSU uses DSpace software, copyright © 2002-2013  Duraspace
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
     

     

    Browse

    All of ScholarWorksCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDepartmentsItem TypeThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesDepartmentsItem Type

    My Account

    Login

    Guidelines & Policies

    AllFor authorsWhy to submitHow to submit

    Statistics

    View Usage Statistics

    MSU uses DSpace software, copyright © 2002-2013  Duraspace
    Contact Us | Send Feedback