Impacts of forest mortality on streamflow in whitebark pine forests within the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

Abstract

Increasing forest mortality across the western U.S. raises concerns about its impact on streamflow. The hydrologic role of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) is of particular interest given its ongoing decline and prevalence at the upper treeline where precipitation is highest. Understanding the link between disturbed whitebark pine forests and streamflow is essential for better informing water resource management. In Chapter One, I investigated streamflow changes in two Wyoming whitebark pine watersheds: Upper Wind River (53% area affected by beetle outbreak) and Buffalo Fork (53% area affected by beetle outbreak and fire). Streamflow significantly increased post-beetle for Upper Wind River but did not significantly change post-disturbance for Buffalo Fork, attributed to the fire's limited spatial extent and post- beetle effects potentially occurring in the pre-disturbance period. In Chapter Two, I integrated Leaf Area Index into a hydrologic model to reflect changing canopy conditions and assessed water balance variables that drove the observed changes in streamflow in Chapter One. I found that an increase in annual precipitation primarily led to the increase in observed streamflow more so than forest mortality, and snowpack and snowmelt were consistent predictors of streamflow metrics. My findings suggest monitoring snow dynamics for accurate real-time and future streamflow forecasting. In Chapter Three, I used streamflow field data and the same hydrologic model to assess the impact of increasing tree mortality on streamflow within a whitebark pine- dominated watershed in Big Sky, Montana. After simulating mortality levels ranging from 0-90% for one year, tree mortality did not substantially impact streamflow until the 90% mortality level where annual flow and late summer flow substantially increased. Considering that mortality levels between 25-50% are more representative of whitebark pine mortality in one year, the lack of substantial impacts on snowpack and streamflow at the 25-50% mortality levels challenges the traditional assumption that whitebark pine mortality would lead to reduced snowpack and reduced late summer flow in open watersheds with 30% forest cover. Future studies should assess the multi-decade impacts of whitebark pine mortality on hydrologic processes and consider species differences in evapotranspiration as other subalpine species replace whitebark pine.