Rethinking water conflict and cooperation: a re-analysis of interviews in Montana and an example study from the Big Hole River watershed

Abstract

Climate change heightens the supply and demand imbalance for freshwater, increasing the potential for conflict between water users. However, conflict is not the only outcome, as water demands can also create space for cooperation. The Basins at Risk (BAR) scale is one of the most prominent numerical measurements for analyzing the level of conflict or cooperation in freshwater-related events reported in public news sources. However, few studies in the U.S. West and none within Montana have utilized this method and little has been done to investigate alternative applications of the BAR scale beyond news event analysis. Therefore, this study examines 1) water conflict and cooperation trends in Montana and 2) how interview data can contribute to nuanced understandings of water conflict and cooperation. The intensity and type of issue for water events in Montana were cataloged and analyzed in a re-analysis of 63 interviews conducted for the Montana Drought Vulnerability Assessment. Results revealed that from the perspective of Montanan water stakeholders, cooperation over water resources outweighs conflict, and low-intensity conflictive and cooperative events are more prominent. The re-analysis results informed the selection of an example study utilizing the BAR scale to analyze event data (n=314) and primary interviews (n=11) collected in the Big Hole Watershed, Montana. Event data was sampled from 7 Montana news sources between the years 2007 and 2023. Primary interviews were conducted in February, March, and April 2024 with a variety of stakeholders in the Big Hole River Watershed (e.g., anglers, ranchers, fishing guides, Big Hole Watershed Committee board members, Fish, Wildlife and Parks). These data show the value of including primary interviews in a study utilizing the BAR scale. Moreover, results from this study can help researchers and resource managers monitor and identify water conflict and cooperation, by showing a nuanced understanding of conflict and cooperation.