Forecasting vertebrate species habitat suitability and ecoregion types under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM)

Abstract

Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia have identified a total of 23 threatened species, including mammals, birds, and plants, which are also a part of their reports for SDG 15. These countries are keen to monitor the risk of extinction of these species and ensure their protection. As part of the Life on Land Project, we aim to assist these countries in approximating the IUCN Red List index using species occurrence data, climatic data, and variables such as Human Footprint (HFP) in different climate change scenario. To achieve this, we conducted a general review of climate drivers and climate change for the three countries and explored climate data to estimate the variation of temperature (°C) and annual precipitation (mm) change under current climate conditions and in RCPs-2050 climate change scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Our results indicated that the average annual temperature for 2050, using a baseline of 1970-2000, is expected to increase by over 1 °C in some areas and over 4 °C in others. For annual precipitation, an increase is also predicted, although few global circulation models show a reduction. We also conducted a median comparison to see the differences between the baseline and the RCPs in 2050, indicating that the medians are different. Density plots were used to illustrate the shift to the right for the temperature case, confirming the anticipated temperature increase by 2050 in the three RCPs. Finally, we used the R package (SDM) to estimate habitat suitability probability for the spectacled bear and the paramo ecoregion. Our findings indicated that climate change impacts their areas with high probability of occurrence to a great extent, and their habitats are also affected by HFP. These methods for exploring climate data and assessing habitat suitability are replicable and can be used with other environmental variables.