Investing in a president

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Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Agriculture


This paper examined the 2012 presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney on the stock market. Presidential elections pose a political uncertainty that can be hedged using the stock market. The paper constructs three portfolios using three different weighting methods: equally weighted, market capital, and individuals' donations. This study uses Fama and French 5-Factor model to estimate the annual return for Obama's and Romney's portfolios. The results show that Obama's portfolio generates an annual expected return of 11.8%, 35.6%, and 39.5% for equally weighted, market capital and donation, respectively. The results also show that Romney's portfolio generates annual expected returns of 5%, 26.2%, and - 0.8% for equally weighted, market capital, and donation, respectively. Investors can adjust their investment portfolio position by observing the candidates' probability of winning the election. This paper establishes a stock market pattern before presidential elections that investors can capitalize on to ensure against the effects of political uncertainty upon the value of their investment portfolio.




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