The impact of the 2017 Rohingya refugee influx on women's labor force participation in host communities

Abstract

This study explores how the 2017 Rohingya refugee influx influenced host community women's involvement in the labor market in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. Using nationally representative panel data from the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) for the years 2012, 2015, and 2018, this study compares changes in economic activity among women in Cox's Bazar before and after the refugee influx compared to women in the surrounding region who were not directly impacted by the arrival of refugees. The analysis only focuses on women in the working age group from 16 to 59 years old and applies a difference-in-differences methodology. The treatment group includes women from Cox's Bazar, while the control group consists of women from other districts in the Chittagong division. Differential impacts by marital status and number of children in the household are also examined in this analysis. The results show that women's labor force participation in Cox's Bazar increased in 2018 compared to 2015, relative to control districts. The effect was particularly strong among single women and those with young children. Despite these findings, caution is warranted. Pre-treatment data suggest that Cox's Bazar may not have followed parallel labor market trends to control areas, limiting causal claims.