Browsing by Author "Cline, Timothy J."

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia
(Wiley, 2024-07) Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Cline, Timothy J.; Finstad, Anders G.; Hessen, Dag O.; Perrin, Sam; Thaulow, Jens; Whited, Diane; Asbjørn Vøllestad, Leif
Climate change is anticipated to cause species to shift their ranges upward and poleward, yet space for tracking suitable habitat conditions may be limited for range-restricted species at the highest elevations and latitudes of the globe. Consequently, range-restricted species inhabiting Arctic freshwater ecosystems, where global warming is most pronounced, face the challenge of coping with changing abiotic and biotic conditions or risk extinction. Here, we use an extensive fish community and environmental dataset for 1762 lakes sampled across Scandinavia (mid-1990s) to evaluate the climate vulnerability of Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), the world's most cold-adapted and northernly distributed freshwater fish. Machine learning models show that abiotic and biotic factors strongly predict the occurrence of Arctic char across the region with an overall accuracy of 89 percent. Arctic char is less likely to occur in lakes with warm summer temperatures, high dissolved organic carbon levels (i.e., browning), and presence of northern pike (Esox lucius). Importantly, climate warming impacts are moderated by habitat (i.e., lake area) and amplified by the presence of competitors and/or predators (i.e., northern pike). Climate warming projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario indicate that 81% of extant populations are at high risk of extirpation by 2080. Highly vulnerable populations occur across their range, particularly near the southern range limit and at lower elevations, with potential refugia found in some mountainous and coastal regions. Our findings highlight that range shifts may give way to range contractions for this cold-water specialist, indicating the need for pro-active conservation and mitigation efforts to avoid the loss of Arctic freshwater biodiversity.
Declines in body size of sockeye salmon associated with increased competition in the ocean
(The Royal Society, 2023-02) Ohlberger, Jan; Cline, Timothy J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lewis, Bert
Declining body sizes have been documented for several species of Pacific salmon; however, whether size declines are caused mainly by ocean warming or other ecological factors, and whether they result primarily from trends in age at maturation or changing growth rates remain poorly understood. We quantified changes in mean body size and contributions from shifting size-at-age and age structure of mature sockeye salmon returning to Bristol Bay, Alaska, over the past 60 years. Mean length declined by 3%, corresponding to a 10% decline in mean body mass, since the early 1960s, though much of this decline occurred since the early 2000s. Changes in size-at-age were the dominant cause of body size declines and were more consistent than trends in age structure among the major rivers that flow into Bristol Bay. Annual variation in size-at-age was largely explained by competition among Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and interspecific competition with other salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. Warm winters were associated with better growth of sockeye salmon, whereas warm summers were associated with reduced growth. Our findings point to competition at sea as the main driver of sockeye salmon size declines, and emphasize the trade-off between fish abundance and body size.