Browsing by Author "Dart, Chase"

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African wild dog movements show contrasting responses to long and short term risk of encountering lions: analysis using dynamic Brownian bridge movement models
(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-12) Goodheart, Ben; Creel, Scott; Vinks, Milan A.; Banda, Kambwiri; Reyes de Merkle, Johnathan; Kusler, Anna; Dart, Chase; Banda, Kachama; Becker, Matthew S.; Indala, Peter; Simukonda, Chuma; Kaluka, Adrian
Background Prey depletion is a threat to the world’s large carnivores, and is likely to affect subordinate competitors within the large carnivore guild disproportionately. African lions limit African wild dog populations through interference competition and intraguild predation. When lion density is reduced as a result of prey depletion, wild dogs are not competitively released, and their population density remains low. Research examining distributions has demonstrated spatial avoidance of lions by wild dogs, but the effects of lions on patterns of movement have not been tested. Movement is one of the most energetically costly activities for many species and is particularly costly for cursorial hunters like wild dogs. Therefore, testing how top-down, bottom-up, and anthropogenic variables affect movement patterns can provide insight into mechanisms that limit wild dogs (and other subordinate competitors) in resource-depleted ecosystems. Methods We measured movement rates using the motion variance from dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMMs) fit to data from GPS-collared wild dogs, then used a generalized linear model to test for effects on movement of predation risk from lions, predictors of prey density, and anthropogenic and seasonal variables. Results Wild dogs proactively reduced movement in areas with high lion density, but reactively increased movement when lions were immediately nearby. Predictors of prey density had consistently weaker effects on movement than lions did, but movements were reduced in the wet season and when dependent offspring were present. Conclusion Wild dogs alter their patterns of movement in response to lions in ways that are likely to have important energetic consequences. Our results support the recent suggestion that competitive limitation of wild dogs by lions remains strong in ecosystems where lion and wild dog densities are both low as a result of anthropogenic prey depletion. Our results reinforce an emerging pattern that movements often show contrasting responses to long-term and short-term variation in predation risk.
Changes in African lion demography and population growth with increased protection in a large, prey-depleted ecosystem
(Wiley, 2024-12) Creel, Scott; Becker, Matthew S.; Goodheart, Ben; Kusler, Anna; Banda, Kachama; Vinks, Milan; Sun, Catherine; Dart, Chase; Matsushima, Stephi; Kabwe, Ruth; Donald, Will; Zyambo, Luka; Indala, Peter; Kaluka, Adrian; Chifunte, Clive; Reid, Craig
Large carnivores such as the lion are declining across Africa, in part because their large herbivore prey is declining. There is consensus that increased protection from prey depletion will be necessary to reverse the decline of lion populations, but few studies have tested whether increased protection is sufficient to reverse the decline, particularly in the large, open ecosystems where most lions remain. Here, we used an integrated population model to test whether lion demography and population dynamics were measurably improved by increased protection. We used data from monitoring of 358 individuals from 2013 to 2021 in the Greater Kafue Ecosystem, where prior research showed that lions were strongly limited by prey depletion, but protection increased in several well-defined areas beginning in 2018. In some other areas, protection decreased. In areas with high protection, lion fecundity was 29% higher, and mean annual apparent survival (φ) was 8.3% higher (with a minimum difference of 6.0% for prime-aged adult females and a maximum difference of 11.9% for sub-adult males). These demographic benefits combined to produce likely population growth in areas with high protection (φ= 1.085, 90% CI = 0.97, 1.21), despite likely population decline in areas with low protection (φ = 0.970, 90% CI = 0.88, 1.07). For the ecosystem as a whole, population size remained relatively constant at a moderate density of 3.74 (±0.49 SD) to 4.13 (±0.52 SD) lions/100 km2. With the growth observed in areas with high protection, the expected doubling time was 10 years. Despite this, recovery at the scale of the entire ecosystem is likely to be slow without increased protection; the current growth rate would require 50 years to double. Our results demonstrate that increased protection is likely to improve the reproduction and population growth rate of lions at a large scale within an unfenced ecosystem that has been greatly affected by poaching.