Browsing by Author "Maxwell, Bruce D."

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2017 Montana Climate Assessment: Stakeholder driven, science informed
(Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2017-09) Whitlock, Cathy; Cross, Wyatt F.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Silverman, Nick; Wade, Alisa A.
The Montana Climate Assessment (MCA) is an effort to synthesize, evaluate, and share credible and relevant scientific information about climate change in Montana with the citizens of the State. The motivation for the MCA arose from citizens and organizations in Montana who have expressed interest in receiving timely and pertinent information about climate change, including information about historical variability, past trends, and projections of future impacts as they relate to topics of economic concern.This first assessment reports on climate trends and their consequences for three of Montana’s vital sectors: water, forests, and agriculture. We consider the MCA to be a sustained effort. We plan to regularly incorporate new scientific information, cover other topics important to the people of Montana, and address the needs of the state.
Assessing performance of empirical models for forecasting crop responses to variable fertilizer rates using on-farm precision experimentation
(Springer Nature, 2022-10) Hegedus, Paul B.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Mieno, Taro
Data-driven decision making in agriculture can be augmented by utilizing the data gathered from precision agriculture technologies to make the most informed decisions that consider spatiotemporal specificity. Decision support systems utilize underlying models of crop responses to generate management recommendations, yet there is uncertainty in the literature on the best model forms to characterize crop responses to agricultural inputs likely due for the most part to the variability in crop responses to input rates between fields and across years. Seven fields with at least three years of on-farm experimentation, in which nitrogen fertilizer rates were varied across the fields, were used to compare the ability of five different model types to forecast crop responses and net-returns in a year unseen by the model. All five model types were fit for each field using all permutations of the three years of data where two years were used for training and a third was held out to represent a “future” year. The five models tested were a frequentist based non-linear sigmoid function, a generalized additive model, a non-linear Bayesian regression model, a Bayesian multiple linear regression model and a random forest regression model. The random forest regression typically resulted in the most accurate forecasts of crop responses and net-returns across most fields. However, in some cases the model type that produced the most accurate forecast of grain yield was not the same as the model producing the most accurate forecast of grain protein concentration. Models performed best when the data used for training models was collected from years with similar weather conditions to the forecasted year. The results are important to developers of decision support tools because the underlying models used to simulate management outcomes and calculate net-returns need to be selected with consideration for the spatiotemporal specificity of the data available.
Bromus tectorum Response to Fire Varies with Climate Conditions
(2014-09) Taylor, Kimberley T.; Brummer, Tyler J.; Rew, Lisa J.; Maxwell, Bruce D.
The invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) forms a positive feedback with fire in some areas of western North America’s sagebrush biome by increasing fire frequency and size, which then increases B. tectorum abundance post-fire and dramatically alters ecosystem structure and processes. However, this positive response to fire is not consistent across the sagebrush steppe. Here, we ask whether different climate conditions across the sagebrush biome can explain B. tectorum’s variable response to fire. We found that climate variables differed significantly between 18 sites where B. tectorum does and does not respond positively to fire. A positive response was most likely in areas with higher annual temperatures and lower summer precipitation. We then chose a climatically intermediate site, with intact sage-brush vegetation, to evaluate whether a positive feedback had formed between B. tectorum and fire. A chronosequence of recent fires (1–15 years) at the site created a natural replicated experiment to assess abundance of B. tectorum and native plants. B. tectorum cover did not differ between burned and unburned plots but native grass cover was higher in recently burned plots. Therefore, we found no evidence for a positive feedback between B. tectorum and fire at the study site. Our results suggest that formation of a positive B. tectorum-fire feedback depends on climate; however, other drivers such as disturbance and native plant cover are likely to further influence local responses of B. tectorum. The dependence of B. tectorum’s response to fire on climate suggests that climate change may expand B. tectorum’s role as a transformative invasive species within the sage-brush biome.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH IN MONTANA: A Special Report of the Montana Climate Assessment
(Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2020-12) Adams, Alexandra K.; Byron, Robert; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Higgins, Susan; Eggers, Margaret; Byron, Lori; Whitlock, Cathy
The purpose of this assessment is to a) present understandable, science-based, Montana-specific information about the impacts of climate change on the health of Montanans; and b) describe how our healthcare providers, state leaders, communities, and individuals can best prepare for and reduce those impacts in the coming decades. This assessment draws from, and is an extension to, the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment (MCA1) (Whitlock et al. 2017), which provides the first detailed analysis of expected impacts to Montana’s water, forests, and agriculture from climate change. MCA explains historical, current, and prospective climate trends for the state based on the best-available science. The 2017 Montana Climate Assessment did not address the impact of climate change on the health of Montanans. This special report of the MCA fills that important knowledge gap; it represents a collaboration between climate scientists and Montana’s healthcare community and is intended to help Montanans minimize the impacts of climate on their health.
Development and Evaluation of an introductory course in sustainable food and bioenergy systems
(2014-02) Malone, Kate; Harmon, Alison H.; Dyer, William E.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Perillo, Catherine
The purpose of this paper is to describe the development, instruction, and evaluation of the undergraduate pilot course, Introduction to Sustainable Food and Bioenergy Systems (SFBS), at Montana State University. Introduction to SFBS is an interdisciplinary, team-taught, experiential education course designed to introduce students to broad array of SFBS-related topics, expose students to career opportunities in these fields, and enable them to establish relationships with food, agriculture, and energy stakeholders. Students completed baseline and follow-up surveys in which they reported information about their backgrounds, values, and knowledge of SFBS-related topics. The surveys also tracked students' learning and allowed them to provide feedback on course methods. According to the follow-up survey, over the course of the semester students demonstrated development of course vocabulary and concepts. Students' experiences in the course prompted changes in their school- and career-related goals. Additionally, the team-teaching approach was highly valued. Students also indicated that teaching should be more solutions-focused. Evaluation of students' backgrounds and learning is an important tool for the future evolution of this course and the development of others like it. The survey tool was in its first iteration; it will require revision as the course evolves. Introduction to SFBS can serve as a model for curricula related to sustainable agriculture, food, and energy. Courses like this can prepare students to become informed, innovative, critical thinkers capable of excelling in a multitude of food, agriculture, and energy-related careers. This course will continue to be monitored and evaluated as the curriculum evolves.
Drivers of Bromus tectorum Abundance in the Western North American Sagebrush Steppe
(2016-09) Brummer, Tyler J.; Taylor, Kimberley T.; Rotella, Jay J.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Rew, Lisa J.; Lavin, Matthew
Bromus tectorum can transform ecosystems causing negative impacts on the ecological and economic values of sagebrush steppe of the western USA. Although our knowledge of the drivers of the regional distribution of B. tectorum has improved, we have yet to determine the relative importance of climate and local factors causing B. tectorum abundance and impact. To address this, we sampled 555 sites distributed geographically and ecologically throughout the sagebrush steppe. We recorded the canopy cover of B. tectorum, as well as local substrate and vegetation characteristics. Boosted regression tree modeling revealed that climate strongly limits the transformative ability of B. tectorum to a portion of the sagebrush steppe with dry summers (that is, July precipitation <10 mm and the driest annual quarter associated with a mean temperature >15 degrees C) and low native grass canopy cover. This portion includes the Bonneville, Columbia, Lahontan, and lower Snake River basins. These areas are likely to require extreme efforts to reverse B. tectorum transformation. Our predictions, using future climate conditions, suggest that the transformative ability of B. tectorum may not expand geographically and could remain within the same climatically suitable basins. We found B. tectorum in locally disturbed areas within or adjacent to all of our sample sites, but not necessarily within sagebrush steppe vegetation. Conversion of the sagebrush steppe by B. tectorum, therefore, is more likely to occur outside the confines of its current climatically optimal region because of site-specific disturbances, including invasive species control efforts and sagebrush steppe mismanagement, rather than climate change.
Impact of growing conditions on the competitive ability of Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz (Camelina)
(2013-03) Davis, Phillip B.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Menalled, Fabian D.
It has been claimed that Camelina sativa, a recently introduced crop in the northern Great Plains, is a highly competitive species. However, this issue has not been formally tested. Utilizing replacement series diagrams, we assessed the importance of growing conditions in the competitive ability of C. sativa. Results indicated that canola and Bromus tectorum were superior competitors in both loam and sandy soils, thus providing evidence that C. sativa may not be as competitive as previously indicated.
Improved Yield Prediction of Winter Wheat Using a Novel Two-Dimensional Deep Regression Neural Network Trained via Remote Sensing
(MDPI AG, 2023-01) Morales, Giorgio; Sheppard, John W.; Hedgedus, Paul B.; Maxwell, Bruce D.
In recent years, the use of remotely sensed and on-ground observations of crop fields, in conjunction with machine learning techniques, has led to highly accurate crop yield estimations. In this work, we propose to further improve the yield prediction task by using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) given their unique ability to exploit the spatial information of small regions of the field. We present a novel CNN architecture called Hyper3DNetReg that takes in a multi-channel input raster and, unlike previous approaches, outputs a two-dimensional raster, where each output pixel represents the predicted yield value of the corresponding input pixel. Our proposed method then generates a yield prediction map by aggregating the overlapping yield prediction patches obtained throughout the field. Our data consist of a set of eight rasterized remotely-sensed features: nitrogen rate applied, precipitation, slope, elevation, topographic position index (TPI), aspect, and two radar backscatter coefficients acquired from the Sentinel-1 satellites. We use data collected during the early stage of the winter wheat growing season (March) to predict yield values during the harvest season (August). We present leave-one-out cross-validation experiments for rain-fed winter wheat over four fields and show that our proposed methodology produces better predictions than five compared methods, including Bayesian multiple linear regression, standard multiple linear regression, random forest, an ensemble of feedforward networks using AdaBoost, a stacked autoencoder, and two other CNN architectures.
Increasing the scope and scale of agroecology in the Northern Great Plains
(Lyson Center for Civic Agriculture and Food Systems, 2024-04) Maxwell, Bruce D.; Duff, Hannah
Agroecology is a science, practice, and movement that is gaining momentum worldwide. It aims to provide local, stable, and diverse diets through diversified, resilient, and sustainable agricultural practices (Ewert et al. 2023). However, agroecology seeks to address food systems issues by replacing large-scale commodity-based agriculture with something very different. Agroecology is typically discussed within the scope and scale of smallholder farming while failing to address the issues embedded in large-scale commodity-based agriculture. While we do not take issue with an ideal system where food is produced on small farms, it does not need to exclude agroecology applied to current scales of agriculture in regions like the Northern Great Plains (NGP), where agriculture consists of spatially extensive crop and livestock farms. NGP farms have internal sustainability problems and harmful social, racial, and environmental externalities that can be addressed with agroecological principles. Despite the problems, the large scale of NGP agriculture is not likely to change much in coming decades, and so there is an imperative to apply agroecological principles at larger scales to address immediate issues. We emphasize that applying agroecological principles to large-scale farming could increase crop and forage diversity, conserve biodiversity, strengthen cross-boundary and multi-objective ecosystem management, address regional food security, and encourage co-innovation with crop and livestock producers in the NGP (Tittonell, 2020). If agroecologists don’t address the immediate issues of NGP such as climate change adaptation and mitigation, livestock-based protein production, unequal access to nutritious food, agriautomation, and pandemic food system disruption, then we may only expect industrialized agriculture to provide short-sited profit-motivated solutions repeating a pattern of the past.
Landscape context affects patch habitat contributions to biodiversity in agroecosystems
(Wiley, 2024-06) Duff, Hannah; Debinski, Diane; Maxwell, Bruce D.
Effective conservation schemes are needed to advance the dual objectives of biodiversity conservation and agronomic production in agricultural landscapes. Understanding how plant and arthropod taxa respond to both local habitat patch characteristics and landscape complexity is crucial for planning effective agri-environment schemes. This study investigated the relative effects of local variables (plant and insect diversity ≤100 m from patch habitat center) and landscape variables (landscape composition and configuration metrics ≤5 km from patch habitat center) on the diversity of plants and arthropods within noncrop habitat patches (1) at different spatial extents ranging from 0.1 to 5 km, while (2) quantifying differential effects of local and landscape variables on particular components of diversity (i.e., species richness and abundance), and accounting for (3) particular components of landscape extent (0.1-, 0.5-, 1-, 2-, and 5-km radii) and complexity (i.e., landscape composition and configuration). Landscape variables were significantly correlated with local plant and arthropod species richness and abundance at all spatial extents. Biodiversity responses to landscape variables were largely scale-dependent, as pairwise comparisons were significantly different between all spatial extents except between 1- and 2-km extents, and correlations were lowest at the 5-km extent. Partial R2 values for predicting local biodiversity were highest when both local and landscape variables were included as predictors of species richness and abundance, increasing from 0.163 to 0.469 when landscape variables were included, underscoring the importance of considering both local and landscape effects on local diversity. Landscape configuration variables accounted for more variation in plant and arthropod species richness than composition variables. However, models performed best when composition and configuration were considered together rather than alone, suggesting that both components of landscape complexity should be considered for identifying and managing conservation areas in crop fields. Existing conservation schemes that incentivize farmers to create or conserve seminatural patch habitat within crop fields may be more effective when combined with landscape-scale designs that enhance landscape complexity across the Northern Great Plains. Local conservation efforts should be coordinated with landscape-level efforts to ultimately enhance biodiversity and desired ecosystem service outcomes across agricultural landscapes.
Native versus non-native invasions: similarities and differences in the biodiversity impacts of Pinus contorta in introduced and native ranges
(2016-01) Taylor, Kimberley T.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Pauchard, Anibal; Nunez, Martin A.; Rew, Lisa J.
Aim To determine whether one of the most invasive pine species introduced to the Southern Hemisphere, Pinus contorta, has changed plant species richness, composition, diversity, and litter depth where it has invaded into native open forest, shrub steppe and grassland communities and to assess whether changes were similar in its native and introduced ranges. Location Río Negro Province, Argentina; Aysén and Araucanía Regions, Chile; Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Methods We measured changes in plant species richness, species composition and cover, diversity, and litter depth associated with increasing P. contorta tree cover along the invasion front at three sites in the introduced range (Argentina and Chile) and one in the native range (Montana, USA). Results Plant species richness and cover generally declined with increasing P. contorta canopy cover, at similar rates in both the introduced and native ranges. However, plant cover was not affected by P. contorta in a forested setting in the introduced range. P. contorta invasion explained more of the decline in species richness in the introduced than native range. Native species composition changed more strongly across the invasion gradient in the introduced than native range. Litter depth increased more rapidly with P. contorta cover in the native than introduced range. Main conclusions Our results highlight the potential of pines to alter plant communities whether encroaching from forests in the native range or from plantations in the introduced range. Species richness and plant cover declined in both settings; however, individual species abundance and species composition were more impacted in the introduced range than in the native range. We suggest that invading trees have a greater capacity to cause ecological impacts in their introduced than in their native range, particularly where they represent a novel life-form.
New Curricula for Undergraduate Food-Systems Education: A Sustainable Agriculture Education Perspective
(2014-12) Jordan, Nicolas; Grossman, J.; Lawrence, Patrick G.; Harmon, Alison H.; Dyer, William E.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Cadieux, K.V.; Galt, Ryan; Rojas, A.; Byker Shanks, Carmen; Ahmed, Selena; Bass, Thomas; Kebreab, E.; Singh, V.; Michaels, T.; Tzenis, C.
New undergraduate degree programs that address food systems have appeared at a number of North American universities in the past decade. These programs seek to complement established food- and agriculture-related courses of instruction with additional curricular elements that build students’ capacity to address complex food-systems issues (e.g., food sustainability, security, quality, equity and justice) in the course of their work in food-related professions. Here, we examine these emerging food-systems curricula, building on our collective experiences developing food-systems degree programs at University of British Columbia, Montana State University, University of California-Davis and the University of Minnesota. We present the conceptual framework that underlies our efforts, based on the premise that our degree programs should help students build “systemic” capacities that complement disciplinary training provided by various specialization “tracks.” Thus, we intend for our graduates to have a dual preparation, in both a particular specialization, and in overarching systemic capacities that enhance their ability to address complex food-system issues. We assess our current curricula in light of our framework, and outline high-priority pathways for further development of these curricula.
Pinus contorta Alters Microenvironmental Conditions and Reduces Plant Diversity in Patagonian Ecosystems
(MDPI AG, 2023-02) García, Rafael A.; Fuentes-Lillo, Eduardo; Cavieres, Lohengrin; Cóbar-Carranza, Ana J.; Davis, Kimberley T.; Naour, Matías; Núñez, Martín A.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Lembrechts, Jonas J.; Pauchard, Aníbal
Pinus contorta is considered one of the most invasive tree species worldwide, generating significant impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems. In several Patagonian ecosystems in southern Chile, it has escaped from plantations established mainly in the 1970s, and is now invading both forests and treeless environments. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the invasion of P. contorta on microenvironmental conditions in Araucaria araucana forest and Patagonian steppe ecosystems, and assessed how these changes related to the richness and abundance of native and non-native plant species. In each ecosystem, 24 plots of 100 m2 were established along a gradient of P. contorta biomass, where 18 environmental variables and the composition of native and non-native vegetation were measured at a local scale. Our results indicated that increased pine biomass was associated with differences in microclimatic conditions (soil and air temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and soil moisture) and soil properties (potassium, nitrate, pH, and litter accumulation). These changes were ecosystem dependent, however, as well as associated with the level of invasion. Finally, the reduction in the richness and abundance of native plants was associated with the changes in soil properties (accumulation of leaf litter, pH, and organic matter) as well as in the microclimate (minimum air temperature, PAR) generated by the invasion of P. contorta. Overall, our results confirm that the invasion of P. contorta impacts microenvironmental conditions (i.e., canopy cover, litter accumulation, minimum air temperature, and maximum soil temperature) and reduces native plant diversity. For future restoration plans, more emphasis should be given to how environmental changes can influence the recovery of invaded ecosystems even after the removal of the living pine biomass (i.e., legacy of the invasion).
Pinus contorta invasions increase wildfire fuel loads and may create a positive feedback with fire
(2017-03) Taylor, Kimberley T.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; McWethy, David B.; Pauchard, Anibal; Nunez, Martin A.; Whitlock, Cathy
Invasive plant species that have the potential to alter fire regimes have significant impacts on native ecosystems. Concern that pine invasions in the Southern Hemisphere will increase fire activity and severity and subsequently promote further pine invasion prompted us to examine the potential for feedbacks between Pinus contorta invasions and fire in Patagonia and New Zealand. We determined how fuel loads and fire effects were altered by P. contorta invasion. We also examined post-fire plant communities across invasion gradients at a subset of sites to assess how invasion alters the post-fire vegetation trajectory. We found that fuel loads and soil heating during simulated fire increase with increasing P. contorta invasion age or density at all sites. However, P. contorta density did not always increase post-fire. In the largest fire, P. contorta density only increased significantly post-fire where the pre-fire P. contorta density was above an invasion threshold. Below this threshold, P. contorta did not dominate after fire and plant communities responded to fire in a similar manner as uninvaded communities. The positive feedback observed at high densities is caused by the accumulation of fuel that in turn results in greater soil heating during fires and high P. contorta density post-fire. Therefore, a positive feedback may form between P. contorta invasions and fire, but only above an invasion density threshold. These results suggest that management of pine invasions before they reach the invasion density threshold is important for reducing fire risk and preventing a transition to an alternate ecosystem state dominated by pines and novel understory plant communities.
Precision Agroecology
(MDPI AG, 2021-12) Duff, Hannah; Hegedus, Paul B.; Loewen, Sasha; Bass, Thomas; Maxwell, Bruce D.
In response to global calls for sustainable food production, we identify two diverging paradigms to address the future of agriculture. We explore the possibility of uniting these two seemingly diverging paradigms of production-oriented and ecologically oriented agriculture in the form of precision agroecology. Merging precision agriculture technology and agroecological principles offers a unique array of solutions driven by data collection, experimentation, and decision support tools. We show how the synthesis of precision technology and agroecological principles results in a new agriculture that can be transformative by (1) reducing inputs with optimized prescriptions, (2) substituting sustainable inputs by using site-specific variable rate technology, (3) incorporating beneficial biodiversity into agroecosystems with precision conservation technology, (4) reconnecting producers and consumers through value-based food chains, and (5) building a just and equitable global food system informed by data-driven food policy. As a result, precision agroecology provides a unique opportunity to synthesize traditional knowledge and novel technology to transform food systems. In doing so, precision agroecology can offer solutions to agriculture’s biggest challenges in achieving sustainability in a major state of global change.
Rationale for field-specific on-farm precision experimentation
(Elsevier BV, 2022-10) Hegedus, Paul B.; Maxwell, Bruce D.
Uncertainties in farming necessitate detailed knowledge of the production efficiencies to maintain sustainability. To accomplish ecologically based agriculture, with the goal of intensification by maximizing production and profit as well as minimizing environmental impact, we hypothesized that a site-specific knowledge base can be efficiently achieved through modern precision agriculture (PA) technologies at the field scale. The two goals of this study were to quantify the spatiotemporal variation of crop responses and the variables driving crop production, crop quality, and field-scale farmer net-return. We conducted on-farm experimentation (OFE) on several fields for three years where we varied nitrogen fertilizer rate as a management input, to induce changes in crop response. Using a Monte Carlo approach, we assessed the probability that crop responses varied across fields and between years. To determine the drivers of crop production, quality, and net-return, we performed sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of variation in the environment with the most influence on crop responses and farmer profits. Our analysis provided evidence that the degree of the response of winter wheat yield and protein content to variable nitrogen fertilizer rates are not homogenous across time and space. Elevation as a covariate to nitrogen fertilizer rate was the primary influence on predicted yields and protein across most fields, yet not among all fields and across years in fields. The drivers of net-return varied among fields and across years primarily between yield and protein. However, in some cases the most influential factor was the base price received, controlled by the grain elevators that growers sell to, indicating that in some fields and years, farmer’s net-returns are dictated by variables outside of a farmer’s control or ability to manage. These results provide basic evidence justifying the use of OFE for farm management and suggest that management needs to be specific to each field and point in time, with recommendations being made specifically for a field based on information gathered from that field. On-farm experimentation will enable farmers to identify these drivers and understand how their inputs influence yield and protein within fields. Using information provided by OFE with decision support systems can enable farmers to make informed management decisions that maximize their profits and increase the efficiency of chemical inputs, such as nitrogen fertilizer.
Regional Crop Gross Primary Productivity and Yield Estimation Using Fused Landsat-MODIS Data
(2018-03) He, Mingzhu; Kimball, John S.; Maneta, Marco P.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Moreno, Alvaro; Begueria, Santiago; Wu, Xiaocui
Accurate crop yield assessments using satellite remote sensing-based methods are of interest for regional monitoring and the design of policies that promote agricultural resiliency and food security. However, the application of current vegetation productivity algorithms derived from global satellite observations is generally too coarse to capture cropland heterogeneity. The fusion of data from different sensors can provide enhanced information and overcome many of the limitations of individual sensors. In thitables study, we estimate annual crop yields for seven important crop types across Montana in the continental USA from 2008-2015, including alfalfa, barley, maize, peas, durum wheat, spring wheat and winter wheat. We used a satellite data-driven light use efficiency (LUE) model to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) over croplands at 30-m spatial resolution and eight-day time steps using a fused NDVI dataset constructed by blending Landsat (5 or 7) and Terra MODIS reflectance data. The fused 30-m NDVI record showed good consistency with the original Landsat and MODIS data, but provides better spatiotemporal delineations of cropland vegetation growth. Crop yields were estimated at 30-m resolution as the product of estimated GPP accumulated over the growing season and a crop-specific harvest index (HIGPP). The resulting GPP estimates capture characteristic cropland productivity patterns and seasonal variations, while the estimated annual crop production results correspond favorably with reported county-level crop production data (r = 0.96, relative RMSE = 37.0%, p < 0.05) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The performance of estimated crop yields at a finer (field) scale was generally lower, but still meaningful (r = 0.42, relative RMSE = 50.8%, p < 0.05). Our methods and results are suitable for operational applications of crop yield monitoring at regional scales, suggesting the potential of using global satellite observations to improve agricultural management, policy decisions and regional/global food security.
Response to fire on the Upper Snake River plain [dataset]
(2011-06) Taylor, Kimberley T.; Brummer, Tyler J.; Rew, Lisa J.; Lavin, Matthew; Maxwell, Bruce D.
This file contains environmental and vegetation data for 10 x 10 m plots along transects through a chronosequence of fires on the Upper Snake River Plain.
A satellite-driven hydro-economic model to support agricultural water resources management
(2020-12) Maneta, Marco P.; Coburn, K.; Kimball, John S.; He, Mingzhu; Silverman, N. L.; Chaffin, Brian C.; Ewing, Stephanie A.; Ji, X.; Maxwell, Bruce D.
The management of water resources among competing uses presents a complex technical and policy challenge. Integrated hydro-economic models capable of simulating the hydrologic system in irrigated and non-irrigated regions including the response of farmers to hydrologic constraints and economic and policy incentives, provide a framework to understand biophysical and socioeconomic implications of changing water availability. We present a transformative hydro-economic model of agricultural production driven by multi-sensor satellite observations, outputs from regional climate models, and socioeconomic data. Our approach overcomes the limitations of current decision support systems for agricultural water management and provides policymakers and natural resource managers with satellite data-driven, state-wide, operational models capable of anticipating how farmers allocate water, land, and other resources when confronted with new climate patterns, policy rules, or market signals. The model can also quantify how farming decisions affect agricultural water supplies. We demonstrate the model through an application in the state of Montana.
Simulation model suggests that fire promotes lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) invasion in Patagonia
(2019-07) Davis, Kimberley T.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Caplat, Paul; Pauchard, Anibal; Nunez, Martin A.
To best understand plant invasions and predict unexpected outcomes it is necessary to integrate information on disturbance, the local environment, and demography. Disturbance by fire has been shown to promote invasions worldwide, but precise interactions between fire, native and invading species remain unclear. Indeed, trade-offs exist between fire-induced mortality of seed sources and increased establishment, driving invasion outcomes. A positive feedback between lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) invasions and fire has been identified but only above a certain pine density. Above this threshold, fire resulted in increased pine dominance at the plot level, however below this threshold establishment rates did not change. We used a spatially explicit invasion simulation model modified to include fire to explore the implications of these complex interactions between pine invasions and fire. We asked if fire promoted P. contorta invasion across a Patagonian steppe site and if this depended on the age of the invasion when it burned. Our simulations indicated that, although fire was not necessary to initiate invasion, fire in communities where pine invasions were at least 10 years old resulted in increased spatial extent and maximum invasion density compared to unburned simulations. Fire through younger invasions did not alter the progression of the invasion compared to unburned simulations. Pine invasions should be managed before they reach an advanced stage where positive feedbacks between fire and pine invasion could lead to dramatic increases in invasion rate.