Browsing by Author "Rosenblatt, Elias G."

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Conserving large populations of lions - the argument for fences has holes
(2013-07-09) Creel, Scott; Becker, Matthew S.; Durant, S. M.; M'soka, Jassiel; Matandiko, Wigganson; Dickman, A. J.; Christianson, David A.; Dröge, E.; Mweetwa, Thandiwe; Pettorelli, N.; Rosenblatt, Elias G.; Schuette, Paul; Woodroffe, R.; Bashir, S.; Beudels-Jamar, R. C.; Blake, S.; Borner, M.; Breitenmoser, C.; Broekhuis, F.; Cozzi, G.; Davenport, T. R. B.; Deutsch, J.; Dollar, L.; Dolrenry, Stephanie; Douglas-Hamilton, I.; Fitzherbert, E.; Foley, C.; Hazzah, L.; Henschel, P.; Hilborn, R.; Hopcraft, J. G. C.; Ikanda, D.; Jacobson, A.; Joubert, B.; Kelly, M. S.; Lichtenfeld, L.; Mace, G. M.; Milanzi, J.; Mitchell, N.; Msuha, M.; Muir, R.; Nyahongo, J.; Pimm, S.; Purchase, G.; Schenck, C.; Sillera-Zubiri, C.; Sinclair, A. R. E.; Songorwa, A. N.; Stanley-Price, M.; Tehou, C. A.; Trout, C.; Wall, J.; Wittemyer, G.; Zimmermann, A.
Packer et al. reported that fenced lion populations attain densities closer to carrying capacity than unfenced populations. However, fenced populations are often maintained above carrying capacity, and most are small. Many more lions are conserved per dollar invested in unfenced ecosystems, which avoid the ecological and economic costs of fencing.
Detecting declines of apex carnivores and evaluating their causes: An example with Zambian lions
(Elsevier, 2014) Rosenblatt, Elias G.; Becker, Matthew S.; Creel, Scott; Droge, Egil; Mweetwa, Thandiwe; Schuette, Paul; Watson, Fred; Merkle, Johnathan; Mwape, Henry
Large carnivores are in rapid global decline, with a broad array of consequences for the ecosystems they inhabit. To efﬁciently detect and address these declines requires unbiased and precise demographic data. Unfortunately, the characteristics that make large carnivores extinction-prone also pose serious challenges to obtaining these data. Rapid survey methods exist, but provide only relative measures of abundance, cannot detect declines before they become large, and provide little or no information about the causes of decline. African lions (Panthera leo) are declining throughout their range, making accurate monitoring of remaining populations urgent. We provide statistically rigorous estimates of population size, trends, survival rate and age–sex structure from Zambia’s South Luangwa lion population from 2008 to 2012, just prior to cessation of hunting in 2013. Mark-recapture models ﬁt to data from intensive monitoring of 210 individual lions in 18 prides and 14 male coalitions indicated a declining population, low recruitment, low sub-adult and adult male survival, depletion of adult males, and a senescing adult female population. Trophy hunting was the leading cause of death, with 46 males harvested. Based on these data we recommend continuing the hunting ban at least to 2016 to allow recovery, with substan-tially reduced quotas, age-limits, and effective trophy monitoring mandated thereafter should hunting resume. Similar data from intensive monitoring of key Zambian lion populations is required to evaluate effects of the hunting ban and provide management guidance. Effectively integrating intensive long-term monitoring and rapid survey methods should be a priority for future management and monitoring of carnivore species.
Effects of a protection gradient on carnivore density and survival: an example with leopards in the Luangwa valley, Zambia
(2016-06) Rosenblatt, Elias G.; Creel, Scott; Becker, Matthew S.; Merkle, Johnathan; Mwape, Henry; Schuette, Paul; Simpamba, Twakundine
Human activities on the periphery of protected areas can limit carnivore populations, but measurements of the strength of such effects are limited, largely due to difficulties of obtaining precise data on population density and survival. We measured how density and survival rates of a previously unstudied leopard population varied across a gradient of protection and evaluated which anthropogenic activities accounted for observed patterns. Insights into this generalist's response to human encroachment are likely to identify limiting factors for other sympatric carnivore species. Motion-sensitive cameras were deployed systematically in adjacent, similarly sized, and ecologically similar study areas inside and outside Zambia's South Luangwa National Park (SLNP) from 2012 to 2014. The sites differed primarily in the degree of human impacts: SLNP is strictly protected, but the adjacent area was subject to human encroachment and bushmeat poaching throughout the study, and trophy hunting of leopards prior to 2012. We used photographic capture histories with robust design capture-recapture models to estimate population size and sex-specific survival rates for the two areas. Leopard density within SLNP was 67% greater than in the adjacent area, but annual survival rates and sex ratios did not detectably differ between the sites. Prior research indicated that wire-snare occurrence was 5.2 times greater in the areas adjacent to the park. These results suggest that the low density of leopards on the periphery of SLNP is better explained by prey depletion, rather than by direct anthropogenic mortality. Long-term spatial data from concurrent lion studies suggested that interspecific competition did not produce the observed patterns. Large carnivore populations are often limited by human activities, but science-based management policies depend on methods to rigorously and quantitatively assess threats to populations of concern. Using noninvasive robust design capture-recapture methods, we systematically assessed leopard density and survival across a protection gradient and identified bushmeat poaching as the likely limiting factor. This approach is of broad value to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic activities on carnivore populations that are distributed across gradients of protection.
Quantifying lion (Panthera leo) demographic response following a three-year moratorium on trophy hunting.
(2018-05) Mweetwa, Thandiwe; Christianson, David A.; Becker, Matthew S.; Creel, Scott; Rosenblatt, Elias G.; Merkle, Johnathan; Droge, Egil; Mwape, Henry; Masonde, Jones; Simpamba, Twakundine
Factors that limit African lion populations are manifold and well-recognized, but their relative demographic effects remain poorly understood, particularly trophy hunting near protected areas. We identified and monitored 386 individual lions within and around South Luangwa National Park, Zambia, for five years (2008-2012) with trophy hunting and for three additional years (2013-2015) during a hunting moratorium. We used these data with mark-resight models to estimate the effects of hunting on lion survival, recruitment, and abundance. The best survival models, accounting for imperfect detection, revealed strong positive effects of the moratorium, with survival increasing by 17.1 and 14.0 percentage points in subadult and adult males, respectively. Smaller effects on adult female survival and positive effects on cub survival were also detected. The sex-ratio of cubs shifted from unbiased during trophy-hunting to female-biased during the moratorium. Closed mark-recapture models revealed a large increase in lion abundance during the hunting moratorium, from 116 lions in 2012 immediately preceding the moratorium to 209 lions in the last year of the moratorium. More cubs were produced each year of the moratorium than in any year with trophy hunting. Lion demographics shifted from a male-depleted population consisting mostly of adult (â‰¥4 years) females to a younger population with more (>29%) adult males. These data show that the three-year moratorium was effective at growing the Luangwa lion population and increasing the number of adult males. The results suggest that moratoria may be an effective tool for improving the sustainability of lion trophy hunting, particularly where systematic monitoring, conservative quotas, and age-based harvesting are difficult to enforce.
Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks
(2013-04) Creel, Scott; Rosenblatt, Elias G.
Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size.