Theses and Dissertations at Montana State University (MSU)
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/733
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Item Where are the beef cattle? : an economic analysis of the changes in the cattle cycle(Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Agriculture, 2013) Mondics, Rebecca Elizabeth; Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Gary BresterThe cattle cycle was characterized by remarkable regularity throughout much of the twentieth century. More recently, inventory appears to lack its typical periodicity, and herd numbers decline despite above-average cattle prices. Historically, producers responded to high prices by expanding herds and to low prices by contracting them. These expansions and contractions resulted in the cattle cycle. Yet, currently, the price of beef continues to increase and inventory numbers continue to decline. This thesis seeks to identify the factors responsible for the apparent change in producer response, and to determine whether or not inventory is still cyclical. Spectral analysis is used to examine the cycle and identifies the early 1980s as the point of change. Next, Granger causality tests and autoregressive distributed lag models are used to estimate national and state-level inventory responses to various factors. A change in producer response to feeder cattle prices, above-average hay prices, and expanded crop insurance use appear to be the primary factors that are causing changes in the cattle cycle.Item Prices, money and the real economy(Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Agriculture, 1991) Kasperick, John P.; Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Douglas J. Young.This thesis examines the effects of output price surprises, energy price surprises, and money surprises on aggregate real economic activity for the years 1948-1988. Three measures of real activity are utilized; the unemployment rate, the log value of output, and the log value of private employment. Both M1 and M2 definitions of money are employed. Model 1 is first developed, which is a replication of Gray and Spencer's 1990 study. From this a reexamination of the empirical role of output price surprises, energy price surprises, and a natural rate measure in determining the level of real aggregate activity is undertaken. Next, Model 2 is developed which includes money surprises along with the various other independent variables in determining real economic activity. Non-linear three stage least squares is the estimation technique employed in estimation of both models. We find that output price surprises are positively and significantly correlated with aggregate real economic activity. Energy price surprises are insignificant in determining real activity. Money surprises, when included with the other explanatory variables, are found to have no direct effect on real activity but operate indirectly through prices. Finally, not much variation in unemployment is explained by the variables of interest.