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Item CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN HEALTH IN MONTANA: A Special Report of the Montana Climate Assessment(Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2020-12) Adams, Alexandra K.; Byron, Robert; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Higgins, Susan; Eggers, Margaret; Byron, Lori; Whitlock, CathyThe purpose of this assessment is to a) present understandable, science-based, Montana-specific information about the impacts of climate change on the health of Montanans; and b) describe how our healthcare providers, state leaders, communities, and individuals can best prepare for and reduce those impacts in the coming decades. This assessment draws from, and is an extension to, the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment (MCA1) (Whitlock et al. 2017), which provides the first detailed analysis of expected impacts to Montana’s water, forests, and agriculture from climate change. MCA explains historical, current, and prospective climate trends for the state based on the best-available science. The 2017 Montana Climate Assessment did not address the impact of climate change on the health of Montanans. This special report of the MCA fills that important knowledge gap; it represents a collaboration between climate scientists and Montana’s healthcare community and is intended to help Montanans minimize the impacts of climate on their health.Item 2017 Montana Climate Assessment: Stakeholder driven, science informed(Montana Institute on Ecosystems, 2017-09) Whitlock, Cathy; Cross, Wyatt F.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Silverman, Nick; Wade, Alisa A.The Montana Climate Assessment (MCA) is an effort to synthesize, evaluate, and share credible and relevant scientific information about climate change in Montana with the citizens of the State. The motivation for the MCA arose from citizens and organizations in Montana who have expressed interest in receiving timely and pertinent information about climate change, including information about historical variability, past trends, and projections of future impacts as they relate to topics of economic concern.This first assessment reports on climate trends and their consequences for three of Montana’s vital sectors: water, forests, and agriculture. We consider the MCA to be a sustained effort. We plan to regularly incorporate new scientific information, cover other topics important to the people of Montana, and address the needs of the state.Item Pinus contorta invasions increase wildfire fuel loads and may create a positive feedback with fire(2017-03) Taylor, Kimberley T.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; McWethy, David B.; Pauchard, Anibal; Nunez, Martin A.; Whitlock, CathyInvasive plant species that have the potential to alter fire regimes have significant impacts on native ecosystems. Concern that pine invasions in the Southern Hemisphere will increase fire activity and severity and subsequently promote further pine invasion prompted us to examine the potential for feedbacks between Pinus contorta invasions and fire in Patagonia and New Zealand. We determined how fuel loads and fire effects were altered by P. contorta invasion. We also examined post-fire plant communities across invasion gradients at a subset of sites to assess how invasion alters the post-fire vegetation trajectory. We found that fuel loads and soil heating during simulated fire increase with increasing P. contorta invasion age or density at all sites. However, P. contorta density did not always increase post-fire. In the largest fire, P. contorta density only increased significantly post-fire where the pre-fire P. contorta density was above an invasion threshold. Below this threshold, P. contorta did not dominate after fire and plant communities responded to fire in a similar manner as uninvaded communities. The positive feedback observed at high densities is caused by the accumulation of fuel that in turn results in greater soil heating during fires and high P. contorta density post-fire. Therefore, a positive feedback may form between P. contorta invasions and fire, but only above an invasion density threshold. These results suggest that management of pine invasions before they reach the invasion density threshold is important for reducing fire risk and preventing a transition to an alternate ecosystem state dominated by pines and novel understory plant communities.