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Item Meteorological metrics associated with deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers(Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Letters & Science, 2014) Marienthal, Alex Grayson; Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Jordy HendrikxSnow avalanches are a potentially fatal and highly destructive natural hazard. Snow slab avalanches occur in steep alpine terrain due to an unstable layered snowpack. When a consolidated layer of snow forms a slab above a weak layer of snow the slab may collapse and slide downhill due to gravitational and applied forces (e.g., the weight of a skier, explosive, or new snowfall). Persistent weak layers form in the snowpack due to strong vapor pressure gradients, and they can last for weeks to months as a slab builds above them. Avalanches on persistent weak layers become less frequent, yet are typically larger and more destructive the longer and deeper the layer is buried. Deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers pose a difficult forecasting problem due to their low likelihood of occurrence and potentially high consequences. This thesis aims to identify meteorological metrics that are associated with deep slabs on persistent weak layers. We used univariate analysis, classification trees, and random forests to explore relationships between seasons with deep slabs and summaries of meteorological metrics over the beginning of the season during weak layer formation. We also looked at the relationship between days with these avalanches and summaries of meteorological metrics over the days prior to them. In addition, we reviewed a case study of a season that had multiple deep slabs on a persistent weak layer and a historic wet slab avalanche cycle on the same layer, at Bridger Bowl ski area. Seasons with deep slabs typically had relatively low precipitation throughout the early part of the season (i.e., November - January), and a snowpack in the beginning of the season that was sufficiently deep, but shallow enough for a weak layer to develop. Our results also showed warmer twenty-four hour temperatures and more precipitation over seven day prior to days with dry deep slabs, and extended periods of above freezing temperatures were seen prior to days with deep wet slabs. These results are in line with previous research and are suggestive of meteorological summaries that may be useful to forecast deep slab avalanches on persistent weak layers.Item An integrated microstructural study of dry snow metamorphism under generalized thermal conditions(Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Letters & Science, 2002) Miller, Daniel AugustItem Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of temperature gradient metamorphism in snow(Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Engineering, 2013) Staron, Patrick Joseph; Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Edward E. AdamsIn the presence of a sufficient temperature gradient, snow evolves from an isotropic network of ice crystals to a transversely isotropic system of depth hoar chains. This morphology is often the weak layer responsible for full depth avalanches. Previous research primarily focused on quantifying the conditions necessary to produce depth hoar. Limited work has been performed to determine the underlying reason for the microstructural changes. Using entropy production rates derived from nonequilibrium thermodynamics, this research shows that depth hoar forms as a result of the snow progressing naturally toward thermal equilibrium. Laboratory experiments were undertaken to examine the evolution of snow microstructure at the macro scale under nonequilibrium thermal conditions. Snow samples with similar initial microstructure were subjected to either a fixed temperature gradient or fixed heat input. The metamorphism for both sets of boundary conditions produced similar depth hoar chains with comparable increases in effective thermal conductivity. Examination of the Gibbs free energy and entropy production rates showed that all metamorphic changes were driven by the system evolving to facilitate equilibrium in the snow or the surroundings. This behavior was dictated by the second law of thermodynamics. An existing numerical model was modified to examine depth hoar formation at the grain scale. Entropy production rate relations were developed for an open system of ice and water vapor. This analysis showed that heat conduction in the bonds had the highest specific entropy production rate, indicating they were the most inefficient part of the snow system. As the metamorphism advanced, the increase in bond size enhanced the conduction pathways through the snow, making the system more efficient at transferring heat. This spontaneous microstructural evolution moved the system and the surroundings toward equilibrium by reducing the local temperature gradients over the bonds and increasing the entropy production rate density. The employment of nonequilibrium thermodynamics determined that the need to reach equilibrium was the underlying force that drives the evolution of snow microstructure. This research also expanded the relevance of nonequilibrium thermodynamics by applying it to a complicated, but well bounded, natural problem.Item The influence of terrain parameters on the spatial variability of potential avalanche trigger locations in complex avalanche terrain(Montana State University - Bozeman, College of Letters & Science, 2011) Guy, Zachary Mark; Chairperson, Graduate Committee: Karl W. Birkeland; Stephan G. Custer (co-chair)More winter recreationists are venturing into steep avalanche chutes and "extreme" terrain each year, and avalanche fatalities are increasing. The slope-scale spatial variability of weak layers and slabs and how it relates to this complex terrain is of critical importance but poorly understood. In this study, I use terrain parameters to model potential trigger locations (PTLs) of slab avalanches, which are defined based on slab thicknesses and presence of weak layers. In a sample couloirs and chutes in Montana and Wyoming, field teams tracked and mapped persistent weak layers and slabs with probe sampling. Terrain parameters derived from a one meter DEM were used to explore the relationships between PTLs and terrain. Exploratory analysis, multi-model classification trees, and logistic regression models support strong relationships between terrain and PTLs. Modeling of PTLs was highly successful for individual couloirs, with terrain-based model success rates frequently exceeding 70% for depth hoar PTLs and 85% for near-surface weak layers. However, models varied widely from couloir to couloir, with generally poor cross-validation results between couloirs, suggesting that the relationships between terrain and PTLs in each couloir are unique and highly complex. For these 21 couloirs in steep alpine terrain, parameters relating to wind deposition and scouring have the strongest association with PTLs.. Parameters with the greatest ability to discriminate PTLs are distance from the edge of a couloir, relative elevation, degree of wind exposure, and degree of terrain exposure. The influences of these and other terrain parameters vary, depending on broader-scale terrain characteristics, prior weather patterns, and seasonal trends. Practical implications from this study are numerous. With an understanding of the broader scale influences and physical processes involved, we can use terrain to optimize stability test locations, explosive placements, or route selection. The unique nature of each couloir means that simple rules relating terrain to PTLs will not apply, although couloirs in the same cirque generally share similarities. This work increases our understanding of how each parameter relates to the physical processes causing PTLs and how these relationships can vary. This information will help to improve practical decision-making ability as well as future modeling efforts.