Impacts of weather, habitat, and reproduction on the survival and productivity of wild turkeys in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota

Abstract

The study of population ecology is motivated by a desire to understand variation in the factors that drive wildlife population dynamics. Robust vital rate estimates are crucial for effective wildlife conservation and management, particularly for at-risk or harvested species. In avian populations, the survival of females, nests, and young are important drivers of population growth, although the relative importance of each rate can differ among species. Annual and regional variation in vital rates within species is common; further, local climatic and habitat conditions may influence population dynamics. During 2016 - 2018, we used radio telemetry to study the impacts of weather and habitat conditions on the survival and productivity of Merriam's wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) in the northern Black Hills of South Dakota. Specifically, we quantified the impacts of 1) precipitation and reproductive effort on hen survival, 2) precipitation and habitat conditions on nest survival, and 3) precipitation and temperature on early poult survival. Precipitation reduced the survival of hens and nests, although the magnitude depended on the hen's incubation status or the vegetation characteristics at the nest site. Based on precipitation data from 2017, the estimated annual survival rate for a hen that did not incubate was 0.535 (SE = 0.038), whereas that and for a hen that incubated for 26 days was 0.436 (SE = 0.054). The probability that a nest would survive from initiation to hatching for a nest initiated by an adult hen on the median date of nest incubation in 2017 was estimated to be 0.432 (SE = 0.084). The estimated probability that a poult would survive from hatching to 4 weeks of age was 0.387 (SE = 0.061). Our results clearly demonstrate a negative cost of reproduction, as predicted by life-history theory, and show that hens and nests in this ecosystem are more vulnerable to predation during or immediately following rainfall, as predicted by the moisture-facilitated nest-predation hypothesis. Survival and productivity of turkeys was lower in our study area than in other portions of the Black Hills; we recommend that managers take steps to limit human-induced hen mortality of this important game species.