Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics

dc.contributor.authorManlove, Kezia R.
dc.contributor.authorCassirer, E. Frances
dc.contributor.authorPlowright, Raina K.
dc.date.accessioned2017-02-21T15:45:13Z
dc.date.available2017-02-21T15:45:13Z
dc.date.issued2016-10
dc.description.abstractEcological theory suggests that pathogens are capable of regulating or limiting host population dynamics, and this relationship has been empirically established in several settings. However, although studies of childhood diseases were integral to the development of disease ecology, few studies show population limitation by a disease affecting juveniles. Here, we present empirical evidence that disease in lambs constrains population growth in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) based on 45years of population-level and 18years of individual-level monitoring across 12 populations. While populations generally increased (=1.11) prior to disease introduction, most of these same populations experienced an abrupt change in trajectory at the time of disease invasion, usually followed by stagnant-to-declining growth rates (=0.98) over the next 20 years. Disease-induced juvenile mortality imposed strong constraints on population growth that were not observed prior to disease introduction, even as adult survival returned to pre-invasion levels. Simulations suggested that models including persistent disease-induced mortality in juveniles qualitatively matched observed population trajectories, whereas models that only incorporated all-age disease events did not. We use these results to argue that pathogen persistence may pose a lasting, but under-recognized, threat to host populations, particularly in cases where clinical disease manifests primarily in juveniles.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipMorris Animal Foundation (D13ZO-081); Penn State Academic Computing Fellowship; RAPIDD Program; National Institutes of Health IDeA Program (P20GM103474, P30GM110732 ); Montana University System Research Initiative (51040-MUSRI2015-03)en_US
dc.identifier.citationManlove, Kezia, E. Frances Cassirer, Paul C Cross, and Raina K Plowright. "Disease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographics." Ecology 97, no. 10 (October 2016): 2593-2602. DOI:https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1520.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0012-9658
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/12638
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.titleDisease introduction is associated with a phase transition in bighorn sheep demographicsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
mus.citation.extentfirstpage2593en_US
mus.citation.extentlastpage2602en_US
mus.citation.issue10en_US
mus.citation.journaltitleEcologyen_US
mus.citation.volume97en_US
mus.data.thumbpage3en_US
mus.identifier.categoryHealth & Medical Sciencesen_US
mus.identifier.categoryLife Sciences & Earth Sciencesen_US
mus.identifier.doi10.1002/ecy.1520en_US
mus.relation.collegeCollege of Agricultureen_US
mus.relation.collegeCollege of Letters & Scienceen_US
mus.relation.departmentMicrobiology & Immunology.en_US
mus.relation.universityMontana State University - Bozemanen_US

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