A remote sensing and GIS-based analysis of forest cover changes and carbon sequestration trends over three decades

Abstract

Reducing deforestation is essential to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and protect vulnerable forest ecosystems. Afforestation initiatives have significantly reduced deforestation effect in Pakistan through large-scale plantation efforts. This study uses Landsat imagery to determine land use land cover changes (LULCC) for assessing carbon changes from which emission and sequestration can be deduced in the Nasirabad (district of Balochistan), Pakistan. For this purpose, Landsat imagery from 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 years were processed using geographic information system (GIS) software and classified based on maximum likelihood classification (MLC) algorithm to prepare land use land cover (LULC) maps. The LULCC analysis revealed a significant decline (21.9 %) in forest area from 1993 to 2003, followed by a notable recovery (2003–2013: 24.53 %, 2013–2023: 6.33 %) over the two decades. Under government led afforestation-initiatives, forests covered approximately 994.13 km2, indicating a 30.85 % increase over twenty years. The rise in forest cover due to these initiatives has increased carbon storage from 2003 to 2023. However, forest area decreased by 705.85 km2 between 1993 and 2003, resulting in total annual emissions (TAE) of approximately, 117612.13 tons per year. This study provides critical data to promote afforestation and forest conservation, aiding climate change mitigation.