Price relationships in the U.S. nitrogen fertilizer industry

Abstract

This study estimates the price dynamics in the U.S. nitrogen fertilizer industry, measures information flow efficiency in spatially separated fertilizer markets, and measures to what extent structural changes in corn and natural gas markets may have altered these price dynamics and information flow relationships. A vector error correction model is used to measure the short-run and long-run relationships between nitrogen fertilizer markets, natural gas markets, and corn markets. The results show that price information flows from the central market of New Orleans to inland regional markets. The efficiency of this information flow increased in the period after the Renewable Fuel Standards increased the demand for corn.