Water scarcity and legal conflict in Colorado

Abstract

The American West is grappling with a water shortage crisis driven by climate change, overuse, mismanagement, and population growth. Competing demands may lead to costly litigation over the use and allocation of limited hydrological resources. This thesis examines water-related legal conflict as an understudied response to water scarcity. I focus on Colorado's unique judicial setting, where all water rights disputes are handled by judges with deep expertise in water law. Using 20 years of court records from Colorado's specialized water courts, I analyze how both short-term water shortages and long-term scarcity influence the incidence of legal opposition to appropriative water rights. My research design leverages variation in mandatory and temporary water cuts ordered to water rights holders. Results reveal a nuanced relationship between water scarcity and conflict. Recent declines in water availability appear to have little effect on litigation, while prolonged scarcity can increase or decrease legal conflict, depending on the context. Water rights that have been in use the longest tend to face higher rates of legal opposition; younger water rights experience the opposite. The relationship between water scarcity and conflict also varies across Colorado's seven administrative water divisions and across different types of court cases. These findings help advance our understanding of environmental determinants of conflict amidst growing natural resource constraints and offer insight into the complex legal and hydrological challenges facing the western United States.