Net Primary Production of Ecoregions Across North America in Response to Drought and Wildfires From 2015 to 2022

Abstract

Ecosystem models are valuable tools to make climate-related assessments of change when ground-based measurements of water and carbon fluxes are not adequate to realistically capture regional variability. The Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) is one such model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover to estimate net primary production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems. CASA model predictions from 2015 to 2022 revealed several notable high and low periods in growing season NPP totals in certain biomes. Both Temperate Broadleaf and Boreal Forest production shifted from relatively high average NPP values in 2015 through 2019 to lower levels in 2020, typically representing a loss of 10%–14% of growing season NPP flux. This rapid decline in growing season NPP from 2019 to 2020–2021 was also estimated for the Temperate Grasslands and Savanna, Temperate Conifer Forest, and Tundra biomes. In contrast to the climate patterns in the temperate biomes that developed into severe widespread drought in 2020 and 2021 due to low precipitation totals and extreme hot temperatures, growing season NPP in the Tundra biome was depressed in these same years by colder temperature induced drought conditions at the high latitudes of North America. Drought severity classes were closely associated with different levels of decline in NPP in most biomes. Trends in NPP in areas of the largest wildfires in North America that burned between 2012 and 2021 were examined to assess recovery of vegetation and the resiliency of ecosystems during extreme drought periods.