Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty

dc.contributor.authorOlson, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorYaw, Sean
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-23T20:53:34Z
dc.date.issued2025-02
dc.description.abstractCarbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a critical technology for reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but its large-scale deployment is complicated by uncertainties in geological storage performance. These uncertainties pose significant financial and operational risks, as underperforming storage sites can lead to costly infrastructure modifications, inefficient pipeline routing, and economic shortfalls. To address this challenge, we propose a novel optimization workflow that is based on mixed-integer linear programming and explicitly integrates probabilistic modeling of storage uncertainty into CCS infrastructure design. This workflow generates multiple infrastructure scenarios by sampling storage capacity distributions, optimally solving each scenario using a mixed-integer linear programming model, and aggregating results into a heatmap to identify core infrastructure components that have a low likelihood of underperforming. A risk index parameter is introduced to balance trade-offs between cost, CO2 processing capacity, and risk of underperformance, allowing stakeholders to quantify and mitigate uncertainty in CCS planning. Applying this workflow to a CCS dataset from the US Department of Energy’s Carbon Utilization and Storage Partnership project reveals key insights into infrastructure resilience. Reducing the risk index from 15% to 0% is observed to lead to an 83.7% reduction in CO2 processing capacity and a 77.1% decrease in project profit, quantifying the trade-off between risk tolerance and project performance. Furthermore, our results highlight critical breakpoints, where small adjustments in the risk index produce disproportionate shifts in infrastructure performance, providing actionable guidance for decision-makers. Unlike prior approaches that aimed to cheaply repair underperforming infrastructure, our workflow constructs robust CCS networks from the ground up, ensuring cost-effective infrastructure under storage uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the practical relevance of incorporating uncertainty-aware optimization into CCS planning, equipping decision-makers with a tool to make informed project planning decisions.
dc.identifier.citationOlson D, Yaw S. Planning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty. Energies. 2025; 18(4):926. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18040926
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/en18040926
dc.identifier.issn1996-1073
dc.identifier.urihttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/19397
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherMDPI AG
dc.rightscc-by
dc.rights.urihttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectcarbon capture and storage
dc.subjectinfrastructure design
dc.subjectoptimization
dc.subjectinteger linear programming
dc.subjectMonte Carlo simulation
dc.subjectheat map
dc.titlePlanning Amidst Uncertainty: Identifying Core CCS Infrastructure Robust to Storage Uncertainty
dc.typeArticle
mus.citation.extentfirstpage1
mus.citation.extentlastpage17
mus.citation.issue4
mus.citation.journaltitleEnergies
mus.citation.volume18
mus.relation.collegeCollege of Engineering
mus.relation.departmentComputer Science
mus.relation.universityMontana State University - Bozeman

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