Scholarly Work - Earth Sciences
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/8747
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Item Tracking decision-making of backcountry users using GPS tracks and participant surveys(Elsevier BV, 2022-07) Hendrikx, Jordy; Johnson, Jerry; Mannberg, AndreaSnow avalanches are a significant natural hazard representing the primary risk of death to backcountry travelers in many alpine countries. Careful use of backcountry terrain through effective decision making can mitigate the risk of dangerous snowpack conditions, but requires relevant knowledge and experience. We present the results from a large-scale crowd sourced data collection method from backcountry users. Using GPS tracking via a smartphone application, coupled with online surveys, we investigate the intersection of geographical complexity, backcountry experience, demographics and behavioral biases on decision-making while navigating hazardous winter terrain. We use data from 770 GPS tracks, representing almost 1.3 million GPS points, as a geographic expression of a group's resulting decisions, and use them to quantify and understand their decision-making process. Our analysis focuses on the change in terrain use as quantified using the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale (ATES), and time spent in avalanche terrain, as a function of experience, avalanche hazard and other group factors. We show that self-identified experts rate themselves as significantly more skilled and also had higher levels of avalanche education. Experts also had an increased exposure to avalanche terrain overall, and also more severe terrain, as represented by median time in class 3 ATES terrain.Item Powder Fever and Its Impact on Decision-Making in Avalanche Terrain(MDPI AG, 2021-09) Mannberg, Andrea; Hendrikx, Jordy; Johnson, Jerry; Hetland, AudunWe examined the effect of emotions, associated with “powder fever”, on decision-making in avalanche terrain. Background: Skiing in avalanche terrain is a voluntary activity that exposes the participant to potentially fatal risk. Impaired decision-making in this context can therefore have devastating results, often with limited prior corrective feedback and learning opportunities. Previous research has suggested that arousal caused by emotions affects risk assessment and intentions to engage in risky behavior. We propose that powder fever may induce similar responses. Methods: We used the following two experimental methods: laboratory studies with visual visceral stimuli (ski movies) and a field study with real stimuli (skiing exciting terrain). We evaluated the effect of emotions on attention, risk assessment, and willingness to expose oneself and others to risk. Results: Both the laboratory studies and the field study showed that skiing-related stimuli had a relatively strong effect on reported emotions. However, we found very few significant effects on decision-making or assessment of risk. Conclusions: Skiing activities make people happier. However, despite the clear parallels to sexual arousal, powder fever does not appear to significantly impair decision-making in our study. More research on the effects of powder fewer on milder forms of risk-taking behavior is needed.Item Risky positioning – social aspirations and risk-taking behaviour in avalanche terrain(Informa UK Limited, 2020-10) Mannberg, Andrea; Hendrikx, Jordy; Johnson, JerryWe test if positionality, i.e., the desire to gain social status, is associated with an increased willingness to take risk among backcountry riders. If positional preferences drive risk-taking behaviour in avalanche terrain, this is especially problematic because the stakes are high and can be fatal. Our analysis is based on data for hypothetical choices from an online survey (N = 648) in North America. We find that positional riders are significantly more likely to boast about riding bold lines, more likely to associate steep riding with social respect, and more likely to say that they would accept to ride a potentially risky line. The positionality effect is present regardless of level of avalanche training. We discuss implications for avalanche training and education.Item Using Citizen Science to Document Terrain Use and Decision-Making of Backcountry Users(Ubiquity Press, Ltd., 2021-03) Johnson, Jerry; Hendrikx, JordyAvalanches represent the primary risk of death to backcountry skiers and snowmobilers in North American and European alpine countries. The best strategy for evading dangerous snowpack conditions that may result in an avalanche event requires skiers and snowmobilers to avoid or mitigate their use of hazardous terrain. Therefore, understanding terrain use is critical to understanding the causes of avalanche accidents. Secondary, post-event examination of accident data is inadequate for this understanding, and the logistical costs of user intercept surveys are problematic. Learning more about the behaviors and practices skiers and snowmobilers use to avoid avalanche fatalities or near misses is the primary concern of the avalanche education and research community. However, the topographical data required for analysis of skier and snowmobiler behavior with respect to terrain use is beyond the capacity of most backcountry skiers to provide via traditional surveys. This paper presents the use of a novel combination of user surveys and Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking to collect detailed terrain-use data from recreationists who voluntarily engage with researchers via active participation in citizen science research projects. We describe the methodology for these observations and present why they represent an effective approach to understand avalanche accidents.Item Rethinking the heuristic traps paradigm in avalanche education: Past, present and future(2020-08) Johnson, Jerry; Mannberg, Andrea; Hendrikx, Jordy; Hetland, Audun; Stephensen, MatthewThis paper will review the emergence and adoption of decision heuristics as a conceptual framework within the avalanche research and education community and demonstrate how this emphasis on the heuristic decision framework has anchored and was critical in redefining the discussion around avalanche accidents. This paradigm has been a critical and meaningful step in recognizing the importance of decision making in avalanche accidents. However, in an attempt to reduce the incidence of fatal accidents, the adoption of these ideas within the wider avalanche community has overlooked some clearly stated limitations within the foundational work of the heuristic decision frame. With respect to the concept of heuristic traps in conventional avalanche education, the concepts are poorly operationalized to the extent that they are vague about what exactly they describe. The result is that as presently framed, they are of negligible value to avalanche education that seeks its basis on the best available information. We end with a discussion, and a call to action to the avalanche research community, of how we could move towards resolution of these weaknesses and add value to prior work on human factor research. Our aim is not to disparage the seminal, paradigm shifting work by McCammon, but rather draw attention to how it has been operationalized and how the industry needs to move beyond this paradigm to see further gains in our understanding of avalanche fatalities.Item Combining GPS tracking and survey data to better understand travel behavior of out-of-bounds skiers(2020-09) Sykes, John M.; Hendrikx, Jordy; Johnson, Jerry; Birkeland, Karl W.Our research seeks to expand existing knowledge of travel behavior and decision-making in avalanche terrain. We have done this by using GPS tracking to observe the travel behavior of out-of-bounds (OB) skiers and collecting survey data to investigate their terrain choices. We sampled participants in the field by distributing hand-held GPS units and surveys along the southern boundary of Bridger Bowl Ski Area, Southwest Montana, USA. In total, we used data from 136 participants that volunteered over the course of 19 field days, from February 2017 to February 2018. We analyzed the resulting GPS data using a GIS, and we derived terrain metrics from elevation and land cover data. We fit a multiple linear regression model using GPS track downhill starting distance from the ski area boundary as the response variable and survey responses, interaction with complex avalanche terrain (as defined using the Avalanche Terrain Exposure Scale), weather conditions, and avalanche hazard level as explanatory variables. This approach evaluates travel behavior as a function of human factors, terrain, weather, and snowpack, providing a holistic perspective on decision-making drivers. Our results show that gender (female), formal avalanche education, and perception of avalanche mitigation are statistically significant (p < 0.05) survey responses which indicate that participants travel further from the ski area boundary before descending Saddle Peak, which effects individuals avalanche terrain exposure. Downhill starting distance is also significantly correlated with time and distance in complex avalanche terrain (p < 0.05). Our results provide a case study of the terrain preferences and avalanche awareness of OB skiers and highlight specific “human factors” that are correlated with terrain selection. Two practical applications of this research are: 1) tailoring of targeted avalanche education outreach based on our results specific to the OB setting, and 2) designing new signage to illustrate the avalanche terrain near the ski area boundary for skiers who are inexperienced in the backcountry or unfamiliar with the specific area.Item Using time lapse photography to document terrain preferences of backcountry skiers(2020-04) Saly, Diana; Hendrikx, Jordy; Birkeland, Karl W.; Challender, Stuart; Johnson, JerryTravel in avalanche terrain requires considered and careful selection of appropriate terrain to reduce exposure to avalanche danger. In many parts of the world, recreational backcountry skiers in avalanche terrain are aided by a regional avalanche forecast. The overall aim of an avalanche forecast is for users to adjust their terrain choices in response to the avalanche danger rating and avalanche problem, thereby reducing their risk of an avalanche involvement. In this paper we present a novel passive observation technique to assess how lift assisted backcountry skiers adjust their terrain use in response to the avalanche danger rating. This paper develops and demonstrates a method to record the terrain metrics of all skiers on an avalanche-prone backcountry slope. Using a remote time-lapse camera focused on a high skier-use backcountry slope, we anonymously recorded the descent route of skiers in ten-second increments. Using 31,966 images over 13 days and 7499 skier point locations, skier locations were digitized from the images, then transformed onto a geo-referenced digital elevation model (DEM) such that terrain metrics could be extracted for each anonymous skier location. When these location points are compared to simultaneous GPS measurements, the horizontal accuracy was estimated to be within a 49-m horizontal accuracy, with a 95% confidence interval. Analysis of the terrain metrics for each skier point compared slope, profile curvature (downslope), and plan curvature (cross slope) over days with different forecasted avalanche danger ratings. This statistical analysis was qualitatively supported by a review of the spatial patterns of the terrain choices on these days. Furthermore, we used this technique to estimate group size, and found a surprising number of solo skiers, even on Considerable avalanche danger days. By remotely photographing all skiers on a slope, the data collected provides a large and diverse data set of the terrain preferences of backcountry skiers under varying avalanche conditions, with limited bias. These results have implications for avalanche education by enhancing our understanding of specific terrain management skills by backcountry skiers.