Scholarly Work - Earth Sciences
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/8747
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Item Evaluation of nature-based climate solutions for agricultural landscapes in the Galapagos Islands(Elsevier BV, 2024-10) Alomia, Ilia; Molina, Armando; Montes, Tessenia; Dixon, J. L.; Vanacker, VeerleThe Galápagos Islands are highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change, and nature-based solutions can help local communities adapt local agricultural systems. Through a comparative analysis, we evaluated the effects of three land management strategies on soil temperature, soil water availability and storage, and carbon stocks in Santa Cruz Island (Galápagos Archipelago). We installed six monitoring sites that consisted of two replicates per pathway: (i) the avoided loss of tropical forest, (ii) the conservation of scattered trees and living fences in at-risk agroforestry system, and (iii) the increase in biomass after a reduction of the grazing intensity. The monitoring sites were equipped with a dense network of rain gauges, air temperature and relative humidity sensors, and capacitance/frequency probes that registered volumetric water content and soil temperature. After pedological characterization of the soil profiles, the soil physico-chemical and hydrophysical properties were determined in laboratory. Over a period of 30 months (July 2019 to December 2021), hydrometeorological and soil environmental data were collected. We assessed differences in soil temperature, moisture availability and soil organic carbon content between native forests, sites under traditional agroforestry and under passive restoration. Forest soils were 12 % cooler;, and soil moisture under forest was 20 % higher than in parcels with silvopastural management. Forest soils had a lower dry bulk density, lower saturated hydraulic conductivity and higher water retention capacity in comparison with the other two management types. In silvopastural systems, a decrease of grazing intensity had a positive effect on soil carbon stocks, that were about 50 % higher than in soils under traditional management. This study shows that avoided loss of tropical forest within an agricultural landscape is a promising strategy to mitigate increasing soil temperatures, agricultural drought, and decline in soil organic carbon content. Continued monitoring of the experimental sites is necessary to corroborate the findings of this investigation at longer temporal scales.Item Assessing changes in global fire regimes(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-02) Sara Sayedi, Sayedeh et al.; McWethy, DavidBackground. The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results. Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion. The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.Item A framework to link climate change, food security, and migration: unpacking the agricultural pathway(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-03) Tuholske, Cascade; Di Landro, Maria Agustina; Anderson, Weston; van Duijne, Robbin Jan; de Sherbinin, AlexResearchers have long hypothesized linkages between climate change, food security, and migration in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One such hypothesis is the “agricultural pathway,” which postulates that negative climate change impacts on food production harm livelihoods, which triggers rural out-migration, internally or abroad. Migration is thus an adaptation to cope with the impacts of climate change and bolster livelihoods. Recent evidence suggests that the agriculture pathway is a plausible mechanism to explain climate-related migration. But direct causal connections from climate impacts on food production to livelihood loss to rural out-migration have yet to be fully established. To guide future research on the climate-food-migration nexus, we present a conceptual framework that outlines the components and linkages underpinning the agricultural pathway in LMICs. We build on established environmental-migration conceptual frameworks that have informed empirical research and deepened our understanding of complex human-environmental systems. First, we provide an overview of the conceptual framework and its connection to the agricultural pathway hypothesis in the climate mobility literature. We then outline the primary components and linkages of the conceptual framework as they pertain to LMIC contexts, highlighting current research gaps and challenges relating to the agricultural pathway. Last, we discuss possible future research directions for the climate-food-migration nexus. By highlighting the complex, multiscale, interconnected linkages that underpin the agricultural pathway, our framework unpacks the multiple causal connections that currently lie hidden in the agricultural pathway hypothesis.Item Hazardous heat exposure among incarcerated people in the United States(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-03) Tuholske, Cascade; Lynch, Victoria D.; Spriggs, Raenita; Ahn, Yoonjung; Raymond, Colin; Nigra, Anne E.; Parks, Robbie M.Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of potentially hazardous heat conditions across the United States, putting the incarcerated population of 2 million at risk for heat-related health conditions. We evaluate the exposure to potentially hazardous heat for 4,078 continental US carceral facilities during 1982–2020. Results show that the number of hot days per year increased during 1982–2020 for 1,739 carceral facilities, primarily located in the southern United States. State-run carceral facilities in Texas and Florida accounted for 52% of total exposure, despite holding 12% of all incarcerated people. This highlights the urgency for enhanced infrastructure, health system interventions and treatment of incarcerated people, especially under climate change.