Scholarly Work - Agricultural Economics & Economics
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://scholarworks.montana.edu/handle/1/3048
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Item Households' public library use across the school calendar(2020-04) Gilpin, Gregory; Bekkerman, AntonWhen schools are on break, some households may be constrained to provide educational resources to their children. Public libraries could be low-cost providers of materials and services that foster educational investment. This research extends existing literature by combining household-level data (public library checkout counts, residential property tax assessment values, student enrollment rosters, and distance to public library measures) to conduct a panel analysis of public library use across the public school calendar. The empirical analyses find that public- school breaks generally impact library use for households with children in public school, but not for households without children in public school or for the lowest socioeconomic status households with children in public school. Distance to library is found to be negatively correlated with public library use for all households, but differentially and dependent on households' socioeconomic status and structure. Lastly, community events and weather are identified to impact use.Item Don't Judge a Wine by Its Closure: Price Premiums for Corks in the U.S. Wine Market(2019-02-19) Bekkerman, Anton; Brester, Gary W.For many purchases, consumers often possess only limited information about product quality. Thus, observable product characteristics are used to determine expected quality levels when making purchase decisions. We use more than 1 million weekly scanner-level observations from grocery stores across ten U.S. markets between September 2009 and August 2012 to examine how consumers value a wine bottle\'s closure type (i.e., cork or screw cap). We focus on lower-priced wines—those with sale prices less than $30 per 750 milliliter bottle—to more accurately evaluate decisions of consumers for whom seeking additional information about wine quality is likely more costly than the benefits derived from that information. Using both pooled ordinary least squares and quantile regressions to estimate price premiums for bottles with corks or screw caps, we find that U.S. consumers are willing to pay, on average, approximately 8% more (about $1.00) for a bottle of wine that has a cork closure. In addition, we show that the size of this premium increases as wine prices decline. (JEL Classifications: D81, M31, Q11)Item Vulnerability of dryland agricultural regimes to economic and climatic change(2018) Lawrence, Patrick G.; Maxwell, Bruce D.; Rew, Lisa J.; Ellis, Colter; Bekkerman, AntonLarge-scale agricultural systems are central to food production in North America, but their ubiquity could be threatened by vulnerability to economic and climatic stressors during the 21st century. Prior research has focused on understanding the influence of climatic changes on physiological processes in these systems and has increasingly recognized that other factors such as social, economic, and ecological variation and the interaction among these factors may cause unexpected outcomes. We assess the vulnerability of large-scale agricultural systems to variation in multiple stressors and investigate alternative adaptation strategies under novel conditions. We examine dryland farms in Montana’s northern Great Plains (NGP), which represent large-scale semiarid agricultural systems that are likely to be affected by climate change. Farmers in the NGP have experienced three distinct periods of economic- and drought-related stressors since the 1970s, primarily driven by uncertainty in soil moisture, but at times amplified by uncertainty in nitrogen fertilizer and wheat prices. We seek to better understand how farmers evaluate and respond to these conditions. The results indicate that although farmers perceived few alternative agronomic options for adapting to drought, strategies for adapting to high input prices were more plentiful. Furthermore, we find that increasing the overall resilience of dryland agricultural systems to economic and climatic uncertainty requires intrinsic valuation of crop rotations and their field-specific response to inputs.Item Revisiting the determinants of futures contracts success: the role of market participants(2017-03) Bekkerman, Anton; Tejeda, Hernan A.The Chicago Mercantile Exchange introduced a futures contract for distillers' dried grains (DDGs) in early 2010, but the market became inactive only four months after its inception. While many new futures contracts do not develop into high-volume traders, interest from DDG cash market participants indicated that this contract could be successful. Prompted by the unexpected lack of trading activity in this new futures market, we empirically revisit the question of what factors contribute to a futures contract's success and extend the literature by investigating the roles of market participants and the significance of supporting futures markets. Estimation results indicate that the market participant type-hedger or speculator-affects futures contract trade volume. More importantly, we find that the viability of new futures contracts for commodities that are jointly produced with other commodities is impacted by hedgers' trade volume of the related futures contract. These results provide important additions into the portfolio of indicators used by commodity exchanges to more cost-effectively evaluate new futures contract products.Item Forecasting a Moving Target: The Roles of Quality and Timing for Determining Northern US Wheat Basis(2016-01) Bekkerman, Anton; Brester, Gary W.; Taylor, MykelWhile nearly instantaneous commodity futures price information provides price forecasts for national markets, many market participants are interested in forecasts of local cash prices. Expected basis estimates are often used to convert futures prices into local price forecasts. This study considers basis patterns in the northern U.S. hard red spring and hard red winter wheat markets. Using data on basis values across 215 grain-handling facilities, we empirically test the forecasting capabilities of numerous basis models. Contrary to basis models developed for other U.S. regions, we show that recent futures prices, protein content, and harvest information are more important for accurate basis forecasts than historical basis averages. The preferred basis models are used to develop an automated web-based basis forecasting tool, available at http://wheatbasis.montana.edu.Item On understanding inconsistent disciplinary behaviour in schools(2015) Bekkerman, Anton; Gilpin, Gregory A.Inconsistent disciplinary administration across schools can inequitably impact students' education access opportunities by separating certain students from familiar learning environments, especially in misconduct cases that result in longer-term removal. We empirically estimate whether such inconsistencies are attributable to heterogeneity in student body demographic characteristics. The results indicate that a greater number of disciplines that remove students from school for an extended period of time are observed in schools with a higher proportion of black students, but no significant differential punishment effects are observed in schools with a higher Hispanic student population. Furthermore, results of decomposing the marginal effects into conditional and unconditional elasticities indicate that it is not the case that schools with predominantly white student bodies have the least severe punishments and schools with more minority students have the most severe punishments. Rather, schools with inconsistent disciplinary behaviour have a proportion of the inconsistency attributable to the race of the student body.Item The Impacts of the Canadian Wheat Board Ruling on the North American Malt Barley Markets(2014-07) Bekkerman, Anton; Schweizer, Heidi; Smith, Vincent H.The 2011 Marketing Freedom for Grain Farmers Act deregulated Canadian grain markets and removed the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) as the sole buyer and seller of Canadian grain. We develop a rational expectations contract decision model that serves as the basis for an empirically informed simulation analysis of malt barley contracting opportunities between Canadian farmers and U.S. maltsters in the deregulated environment. Comparative statics and simulation results indicate that some new opportunities for contracting are possible, but the likelihood of favorable conditions for U.S. maltsters to contract with Canadian rather than U.S. farmers is low—between 9% and 35% over a range of possible selection rates. The effects on contracting of the termination of the Canadian grain transportation revenue cap policy and of the relaxation of criteria for the release of new spring wheat varieties are also investigated. While changes to grain transportation policies are not likely to significantly affect favorable conditions for contracting, reducing constraints on Canadian farmers’ access to higher yielding wheat varieties could increase the returns from growing spring wheat but decrease the likelihood of contracting for malt barley with U.S. maltsters by an average of 5.3 percentage points.Item Pea in Rotation with Wheat Reduced Uncertainty of Economic Returns in Southwest Montana(2015-01) Miller, Perry R.; Bekkerman, Anton; Jones, Clain A.; Burgess, Macdonald H.; Holmes, Jeffrey A.; Engel, Richard E.Pea (Pisum sativum L.) is increasingly being rotated with wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in Montana. Our objective was to compare economic net returns among wheat-only and pea–wheat systems during an established 4-yr crop rotation. The experimental design included three wheat-only (tilled fallow–wheat, no-till fallow–wheat, no-till continuous wheat) and three no-till pea–wheat (pea–wheat, pea brown manure–wheat, and pea forage–wheat) systems as main plots, and high and low available N rates as subplots. Net returns were calculated as the difference between market revenues and operation and input costs associated with machinery, seed and seed treatment, fertilizer, and pesticides. Gross returns for wheat were adjusted to reflect grain protein at “flat” and “sharp” discount/premium schedules based on historical Montana elevator schedules. Cumulative net returns were calculated for four scenarios including high and low available N rates and flat and sharp protein discount/premium schedules. Pea–wheat consistently had the greatest net returns among the six systems studied. Pea fallow–wheat systems exhibited greater economic stability across scenarios but had greater 4-yr returns (US$287 ha–1) than fallow–wheat systems only under the low N rate and sharp protein discount schedule scenario. We concluded that pea–wheat systems can reduce net return uncertainties relative to wheat-only systems under contrasting N fertility regimes, and variable wheat protein discount schedules in southwestern Montana. This implies that pea–wheat rotations, which protected wheat yield and/or protein levels under varying N fertility management, can reduce farmers’ exposure to annual economic variability.Item The role of simulations in econometrics pedagogy(2014-12) Bekkerman, AntonThis article assesses the role of simulation methods in econometrics pedagogy. Technological advances have increased researchers' abilities to use simulation methods and have contributed to a greater presence of simulation-based analysis in econometrics research. Simulations can also have an important role as pedagogical tools in econometrics education by providing a data-driven medium for difficult-to-grasp theoretical ideas to be empirically mimicked and the results to be visualized and interpreted accessibly. Three sample blueprints for implementing simulations to demonstrate foundational econometric principles provide a framework for gauging the effectiveness of simulation analysis as a pedagogical instrument.