College of Letters & Science

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The College of Letters and Science, the largest center for learning, teaching and research at Montana State University, offers students an excellent liberal arts and sciences education in nearly 50 majors, 25 minors and over 25 graduate degrees within the four areas of the humanities, natural sciences, mathematics and social sciences.

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Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub
(2017-09) Renwick, Katherine; Curtis, Caroline; Kleinhesselink, Andrew; Schlaepfer, Daniel; Bradley, Bethany; Aldridge, Cameron; Poulter, Benjamin; Adler, Peter
A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi‐model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi‐model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.
Disentangling climate and disturbance effects on regional vegetation greening trends
(2018-11) Emmett, Kristen; Poulter, Benjamin; Renwick, Katherine
Productivity of northern latitude forests is an important driver of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is already responding to climate change. Studies of the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for northern latitudes indicate recent changes in plant productivity. These detected greening and browning trends are often attributed to a lengthening of the growing season from warming temperatures. Yet, disturbance-recovery dynamics are strong drivers of productivity and can mask direct effects of climate change. Here, we analyze 1-km resolution NDVI data from 1989 to 2014 for the northern latitude forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem for changes in plant productivity to address the following questions: (1) To what degree has greening taken place in the GYE over the past three decades? and (2) What is the relative importance of disturbance and climate in explaining NDVI trends? We found that the spatial extents of statistically significant productivity trends were limited to local greening and browning areas. Disturbance history, predominately fire disturbance, was a major driver of these detected NDVI trends. After accounting for fire-, insect-, and human-caused disturbances, increasing productivity trends remained. Productivity of northern latitude forests is generally considered temperature-limited; yet, we found that precipitation was a key driver of greening in the GYE.
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia
(2018-03) Kondo, Masayuki; Ichii, Kazuhito; Patra, Prabir K.; Canadell, Joseph G.; Poulter, Benjamin; Stitch, Stephen; Calle, Leonardo; Liu, Yi Y.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; Saeki, Tazu; Saigusa, Nobuko; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Arneth, Almut; Harper, Anna B.; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charles D.; Li, Fang; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Zaehle, Sonke; Wiltshire, Andy; Chevallier, Frederic; Maki, Takashi; Nakamura, Takashi; Niwa, Yosuke; Rödenbeck, Christian
An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.
Opportunities and Trade-offs among BECCS and the Food, Water, Energy, Biodiversity, and Social Systems Nexus at Regional Scales
(2018-01) Stoy, Paul C.; Ahmed, Selena; Jarchow, Meghann; Rashford, Benjamin; Swanson, David; Albeke, Shannon; Bromley, Gabriel T.; Brookshire, E. N. Jack; Dixon, Mark D.; Haggerty, Julia Hobson; Miller, Perry R.; Peyton, Brent M.; Royem, Alisa; Spangler, Lee H.; Straub, Crista; Poulter, Benjamin
Carbon dioxide must be removed from the atmosphere to limit climate change to 2°C or less. The integrated assessment models used to develop climate policy acknowledge the need to implement net negative carbon emission strategies, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), to meet global climate imperatives. The implications of BECCS for the food, water, energy, biodiversity, and social systems (FWEBS) nexus at regional scales, however, remain unclear. Here, we present an interdisciplinary research framework to examine the trade-offs as well as the opportunities among BECCS scenarios and FWEBS on regional scales using the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB) as a case study. We describe the physical, biological, and social attributes of the UMRB, and we use grassland bird populations as an example of how biodiversity is influenced by energy transitions, including BECCS. We then outline a "conservation" BECCS strategy that incorporates societal values and emphasizes biodiversity conservation.
Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change
(2017-09) Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L.; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin
Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04W.m(-2) to 0.19W.m(-2) by the end of the 21st century. Under the \worst-case\" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 degrees C.
Assimilating satellite-based canopy height within an ecosystem model to estimate aboveground forest biomass
(2017-07) Joetzjer, Emilie; Pillet, Michiel; Ciais, Philippe; Barbier, N.; Chave, Jerome; Schlund, M.; Maignan, F.; Barichivich, Jonathan; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Hérault, Bruno; Poncet, F.; Poulter, Benjamin
Despite advances in Earth observation and modeling, estimating tropical biomass remains a challenge. Recent work suggests that integrating satellite measurements of canopy height within ecosystem models is a promising approach to infer biomass. We tested the feasibility of this approach to retrieve aboveground biomass (AGB) at three tropical forest sites by assimilating remotely sensed canopy height derived from a texture analysis algorithm applied to the high-resolution Pleiades imager in the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems Canopy (ORCHIDEE-CAN) ecosystem model. While mean AGB could be estimated within 10% of AGB derived from census data in average across sites, canopy height derived from Pleiades product was spatially too smooth, thus unable to accurately resolve large height (and biomass) variations within the site considered. The error budget was evaluated in details, and systematic errors related to the ORCHIDEE-CAN structure contribute as a secondary source of error and could be overcome by using improved allometric equations.
Comparing tree-ring and permanent plot estimates of aboveground net primary production in three eastern US forests
(2016-09) Dye, Alex; Plotkin, Audrey Barker; Bishop, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Poulter, Benjamin; Hessl, Amy
Forests account for a large portion of sequestered carbon, much of which is stored as wood in trees. The rate of carbon accumulation in aboveground plant material, or aboveground net primary productivity (aNPP), quantifies annual to decadal variations in forest carbon sequestration. Permanent plots are often used to estimate aNPP but are usually not annually resolved and take many years to develop a long data set. Tree rings are a unique and infrequently used source for measuring aNPP, and benefit from fine spatial (individual trees) and temporal (annual) resolution. Because of this precision, tree rings are complementary to permanent plots and the suite of tools used to study forest productivity. Here we evaluate whether annual estimates of aNPP developed from tree rings approximate estimates derived from colocated permanent plots. We studied a lowland evergreen (Howland, Maine), mixed deciduous (Harvard Forest, Massachusetts), and mixed mesophytic (Fernow, West Virginia) forest in the eastern United States. Permanent plots at the sites cover an area of 2-3 ha, and we use these areas as benchmarks indicative of the forest stand. We simulate random draws of permanent plot subsets to describe the distribution of aNPP estimates given a sampling area size equivalent to the tree-ring plots. Though mean tree-ring aNPP underestimates permanent plot aNPP slightly at Howland and Fernow and overestimates at Harvard Forest when compared with the entire permanent plot, it is within the 95% confidence interval of the random draws of equal-sized sampling area at all sites. To investigate whether tree-ring aNPP can be upscaled to the stand, we conducted a second random draw of permanent plot subsets simulating a twofold increase in sampling area. aNPP estimates from this distribution were not significantly different from results of the initial sampling area, though variance decreased as sampling area approaches stand area. Despite several concerns to consider when using tree rings to reconstruct aNPP (e.g., upscaling, allometric, and sampling uncertainties), the benefits are apparent, and we call for the continued application of tree rings in carbon cycle studies across a broader range of species diversity, productivity, and disturbance histories to fully develop this potential.
Drought rapidly diminishes the large net CO2 uptake in 2011 over semi-arid Australia
(2016-11) ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek; Chevallier, Frederic; Joiner, Joanna; Poulter, Benjamin; Zhang, Yongguang; Guanter, Luis; Meyer, Wayne; Xie, Zunyi; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo
Each year, terrestrial ecosystems absorb more than a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon emissions, termed as land carbon sink. An exceptionally large land carbon sink anomaly was recorded in 2011, of which more than half was attributed to Australia. However, the persistence and spatially attribution of this carbon sink remain largely unknown. Here we conducted an observation-based study to characterize the Australian land carbon sink through the novel coupling of satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis and in-situ flux tower measures. We show the 2010-11 carbon sink was primarily ascribed to savannas and grasslands. When all biomes were normalized by rainfall, shrublands however, were most efficient in absorbing carbon. We found the 2010-11 net CO2 uptake was highly transient with rapid dissipation through drought. The size of the 2010-11 carbon sink over Australia (0.97 Pg) was reduced to 0.48 Pg in 2011-12, and was nearly eliminated in 2012-13 (0.08 Pg). We further report evidence of an earlier 2000-01 large net CO2 uptake, demonstrating a repetitive nature of this land carbon sink. Given a significant increasing trend in extreme wet year precipitation over Australia, we suggest that carbon sink episodes will exert greater future impacts on global carbon cycle.
The terrestrial carbon budget of South and Southeast Asia
(2016-10) Cervarich, Matthew; Shu, Shijie; Jain, Atul K.; Arneth, Almut; Canadell, Josep; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Houghton, Richard A; Kato, Etsushi; Koven, Charles D.; Patra, Prabir K.; Poulter, Benjamin; Sitch, Stephen; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Viovy, Nicolas; Wiltshire, Andy; Zeng, Ning
Accomplishing the objective of the current climate policies will require establishing carbon budget and flux estimates in each region and county of the globe by comparing and reconciling multiple estimates including the observations and the results of top-down atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions and bottom-up dynamic global vegetation models. With this in view, this study synthesizes the carbon source/sink due to net ecosystem productivity (NEP), land cover land use change (E-LUC), fires and fossil burning (E-FIRE) for the South Asia (SA), Southeast Asia (SEA) and South and Southeast Asia (SSEA = SA + SEA) and each country in these regions using the multiple top-down and bottom-up modeling results. The terrestrial net biome productivity (NBP = NEP - E-LUC - E-FIRE) calculated based on bottom-up models in combination with E-FIRE based on GFED4s data show net carbon sinks of 217 +/- 147, 10 +/- 55, and 227 +/- 279 TgC yr(-1) for SA, SEA, and SSEA. The top-down models estimated NBP net carbon sinks were 20 +/- 170, 4 +/- 90 and 24 +/- 180 TgC yr(-1). In comparison, regional emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels were 495, 275, and 770 TgC yr(-1), which are many times higher than the NBP sink estimates, suggesting that the contribution of the fossil fuel emissions to the carbon budget of SSEA results in a significant net carbon source during the 2000s. When considering both NBP and fossil fuel emissions for the individual countries within the regions, Bhutan and Laos were net carbon sinks and rest of the countries were net carbon source during the 2000s. The relative contributions of each of the fluxes (NBP, NEP, ELUC, and EFIRE, fossil fuel emissions) to a nation\'s net carbon flux varied greatly from country to country, suggesting a heterogeneous dominant carbon fluxes on the country-level throughout SSEA.
Global patterns and climate drivers of water-use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems deduced from satellite-based datasets and carbon cycle models
(2016-03) Sun, Yan; Piao, Shilong; Huang, Mengtian; Ciais, Philippe; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Cheng, Lei; Li, Xiran; Zhang, Xinping; Mao, Jiafu; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Benjamin; Shi, Xiaoying; Wang, Xuhui; Wang, Ying-Ping; Zeng, Hui
Aim: To investigate how ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) varies spatially under different climate conditions, and how spatial variations in WUE differ from those of transpiration-based water-use efficiency (WUEt) and transpiration-based inherent water-use efficiency (IWUEt). Location: Global terrestrial ecosystems. Methods: We investigated spatial patterns of WUE using two datasets of gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) and four biosphere model estimates of GPP and ET. Spatial relationships between WUE and climate variables were further explored through regression analyses. Results: Global WUE estimated by two satellite-based datasets is 1.9 ± 0.1 and 1.8 ± 0.6 g C m−2 mm−1 lower than the simulations from four process-based models (2.0 ± 0.3 g C m−2 mm−1) but comparable within the uncertainty of both approaches. In both satellite-based datasets and process models, precipitation is more strongly associated with spatial gradients of WUE for temperate and tropical regions, but temperature dominates north of 50° N. WUE also increases with increasing solar radiation at high latitudes. The values of WUE from datasets and process-based models are systematically higher in wet regions (with higher GPP) than in dry regions. WUEt shows a lower precipitation sensitivity than WUE, which is contrary to leaf- and plant-level observations. IWUEt, the product of WUEt and water vapour deficit, is found to be rather conservative with spatially increasing precipitation, in agreement with leaf- and plant-level measurements. Main conclusions: WUE, WUEt and IWUEt produce different spatial relationships with climate variables. In dry ecosystems, water losses from evaporation from bare soil, uncorrelated with productivity, tend to make WUE lower than in wetter regions. Yet canopy conductance is intrinsically efficient in those ecosystems and maintains a higher IWUEt. This suggests that the responses of each component flux of evapotranspiration should be analysed separately when investigating regional gradients in WUE, its temporal variability and its trends.

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