Eco-evolutionary and risk assessment frameworks for assessing agroecosystem resilience in a changing climate

Abstract

Fostering sustainable agricultural systems in an era of anthropogenically induced climate change requires the integration of established and emerging frameworks for understanding ecological and evolutionary processes, as well as their implications for resilience and risk mitigation. In this perspective article, we focus on the ecological production unit (i.e., the agroecosystem) and discuss management tactics that could increase resilience to the perturbations associated with climate change. First, we introduce three broad conceptual frameworks to contextualize both agriculture and the impacts of climate change: eco-evolutionary dynamics, ecological disturbance, and resilience and vulnerability. Each framework provides unique insights into why certain types of agroecosystems and agricultural management practices either ameliorate or exacerbate the negative impacts of climate change. Then, we complement these perspectives with a discussion of how risk analysis can be used to assess an agroecosystem’s vulnerability to climate-induced perturbations, thereby illuminating opportunities for enhancing resilience. Finally, we discuss the importance of incorporating these perspectives in the design of food systems capable of coping with the challenges posed by a changing climate. Despite the inherent complexity of agroecosystems, the complementary frameworks presented here help point to strategies to enhance resilience to the many challenges posed by climate change, a required step to safeguard global food security and human well-being.