Scholarly Work - Earth Sciences

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    Updating the Upper Cretaceous (Campanian) Two Medicine Formation of Montana: Lithostratigraphic revisions, new CA-ID-TIMS U-Pb ages, and a calibrated framework for dinosaur occurrences
    (Geological Society of America, 2024-07) Rogers, Raymond R.; Horner, John R.; Ramezani, Jahandar; Roberts, Eric M.; Carricchio, David J.
    The Campanian Two Medicine Formation of northwestern Montana, USA, is richly fossiliferous, and discoveries made within the unit over the past century have greatly advanced our appreciation of dinosaur paleobiology and evolution. Previously undifferentiated from a lithostratigraphic perspective, the formation is now subdivided into four new members that include (from base to top) (1) the Rock City Member, (2) the Shields Crossing Member, (3) the Hagans Crossing Member, and (4) the Flag Butte Member. These new formal units and their associated fossil occurrences are also now included in an age model founded on eight high-resolution chemical abrasion−isotope dilution−thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb ages. New age data confirm that the Two Medicine Formation accumulated during much of the Campanian, with deposition spanning ca. 82.4 Ma to 74.4 Ma. New age data further indicate that a major reorganization of depositional systems, marked by a shift from predominantly lacustrine to alluvial facies and accompanied by a dramatic increase in accommodation, transpired near the base of the new Flag Butte Member at ca. 76.3 Ma. This change in depositional regime correlates in age with the Judith River−Belly River discontinuity, which marks the contact between the McClelland Ferry and Coal Ridge Members in the Judith River Formation and coincides with the onset of the Bearpaw transgression in north-central Montana. The new lithostratigraphic and chronostratigraphic framework for the Two Medicine Formation serves to contextualize and calibrate the formation’s rich dinosaur fossil record, which can now be interrogated with increased clarity and precision. These results also provide ground truth for numerical models that explore the structure of the fossil record in relation to alluvial architecture and terrestrial sequence stratigraphy.
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    Preventing heat-related deaths: The urgent need for a global early warning system for heat
    (Public Library of Science, 2024-07) Brimicombe, Chloe; Runkle, Jennifer D.; Tuholske, Cascade; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gao, Chuansi; Toftum, Jørn; Otto, Ilona M.
    Heatwaves are the deadliest weather hazard and people and societies across the world continue to suffer from heat-related impacts. Future climate projections show a troubling increase in cross-sectoral impacts including health and economic risk presented by heatwaves. Many weather hazards such as floods and droughts already have a type of Early Warning System (EWS) or Global Alert System, but a global heat early warning system currently does not exist. An accurate heat EWS can save lives and can promote heat adaptation across society. Here, we (1) explore the history of Early Warning Systems as framed using the Disaster Risk Reduction paradigms and (2) identify potential barriers to an integrated Global Heat Early Warning system. Finally, we discuss what we have learned from history and the identified current barriers and outline a vision of a Global Heat Early Warning system around four key themes, incorporating systems for low-, middle-, and high-income countries and requiring cross-sectoral, cross-government, and interdisciplinary collaboration.
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    Morphology, timing, and drivers of post-glacial landslides in the northern Yellowstone region
    (Wiley, 2024) Dixon, Jean L.; Nicholas, Grace E.; Pierce, Kenneth L.; Lageson, David
    The withdrawal of glaciers in mountainous systems exposes over-steepened slopes previously sculpted by ice. This debuttressing can directly trigger mass movements or leave slopes susceptible to them by other drivers, including seismogenic shaking and changing climate conditions. These systems may pose hazards long after deglaciation. Here, we investigate the drivers of slope failure for landslides at the northern entrance to Yellowstone National Park, a critical conduit traversed by ~1 million visitors each year. Through field mapping and analyses of LiDAR data, we quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between eight adjacent slides. Stratigraphic relationships and surface roughness analyses suggest initial emplacement 13–11.5 ka, after a significant delay from Deckard Flats glacial retreat (15.1 ± 1.2 ka). Thus, rapid glacial debuttressing was not the direct trigger of slope failure, though the resultant change in stress regime likely had a preparatory influence. We posit that the timing of failure was associated with (1) a period of enhanced moisture and seismicity in the late Pleistocene and (2) altered stress regimes associated with ice retreat. Historical archives and cross-cutting relationships indicate portions of some ancient slides were reactivated; these areas are morphologically distinguishable from other slide surfaces, with mean topographic roughness 2 times that of non-active slides. Stream power analysis and archival records indicate Holocene incision of the Gardner River and human disturbances are largely responsible for modern reactivations. Our findings highlight the importance of combining archival records with stratigraphic, field and remote sensing approaches to understanding landslide timing, risk, and drivers in post-glacial environments. This study also provides a valuable baseline for geomorphic change in the Yellowstone system, where a 2022 flood incised streams, damaged infrastructure and further reactivated landslide slopes.
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    Reconciling petrologic magma ascent speedometers for the June 12th, 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines
    (Volcanica, 2024-03) Harris, Megan; Hosseini, Behnaz; Myers, Madison; Bouley, Logan
    We investigate whether decompression rates derived from three often-disparate petrologic techniques (microlites, bubbles, and melt embayments) can be reconciled or integrated for a more complete understanding of magma ascent in the conduit. We focus on the well-studied and -documented earliest Plinian eruptions (June 12, 1991) of Mount Pinatubo. Using a newly developed two-stage decompression-diffusion model, volatile profiles in quartz-hosted embayments reveal an initial stage of decompression nearly two orders of magnitude slower than final rates. In applying time-integrated models of microlite and bubble nucleation and growth, initial decompression rates from embayments are supported by microlite modeling results, whereas final rates are in close agreement with bubble number densities. This consistency and continuity between speedometers supports the sensitivity of different petrologic recorders to specific regions of the conduit system and highlights the fidelity of embayments as recorders of decompression throughout the entire conduit. Ascent timescales derived from Pinatubo embayments range from hours to days, coinciding with the visual onset of lava effusion leading to explosive activity.
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    Wood–Ljungdahl pathway encoding anaerobes facilitate low-cost primary production in hypersaline sediments at Great Salt Lake, Utah
    (Oxford University Press, 2024-07) Shoemaker, Anna; Maritan, Andrew; Cosar, Su; Nupp, Sylvia; Menchaca, Ana; Jackson, Thomas; Dang, Aria; Baxter, Bonnie K.; Colman, Daniel R.; Dunham, Eric C.; Boyd, Eric S.
    Little is known of primary production in dark hypersaline ecosystems despite the prevalence of such environments on Earth today and throughout its geologic history. Here, we generated and analyzed metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) organized as operational taxonomic units (OTUs) from three depth intervals along a 30-cm sediment core from the north arm of Great Salt Lake, Utah. The sediments and associated porewaters were saturated with NaCl, exhibited redox gradients with depth, and harbored nitrogen-depleted organic carbon. Metabolic predictions of MAGs representing 36 total OTUs recovered from the core indicated that communities transitioned from aerobic and heterotrophic at the surface to anaerobic and autotrophic at depth. Dark CO2 fixation was detected in sediments and the primary mode of autotrophy was predicted to be via the Wood–Ljungdahl pathway. This included novel hydrogenotrophic acetogens affiliated with the bacterial class Candidatus Bipolaricaulia. Minor populations were dependent on the Calvin cycle and the reverse tricarboxylic acid cycle, including in a novel Thermoplasmatota MAG. These results are interpreted to reflect the favorability of and selectability for populations that operate the lowest energy requiring CO2-fixation pathway known, the Wood–Ljungdahl pathway, in anoxic and hypersaline conditions that together impart a higher energy demand on cells.
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    Evaluating Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensor Estimates of Snow Water Equivalent in a Prairie Environment Using UAV Lidar
    (American Geophysical Union, 2024-06) Woodley, M.; Kim, H.; Sproles, E.; Eberly, J.; Tuttle, S.
    Monitoring snow cover in prairie environments is important for understanding water and energy fluxes, agricultural production, and flooding, but difficult due to shallow snowpack and considerable snow heterogeneity. Cosmic ray neutron sensors (CRNS) are sensitive to snow within a radius of 150–250 m, which allows for continuous estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) over a large footprint and may better represent area-averaged snow cover in prairies than conventional SWE instruments, such as snow pillows. A CRNS was installed at Montana State University's Central Agricultural Research Center (CARC; 47.06°, −109.95°) in Moccasin, MT in coordination with NASA's SnowEx 2021 field campaign. This work assesses the feasibility of a CRNS for SWE monitoring in prairies by comparing CRNS SWE estimates to spatially distributed SWE derived from uninhabited aerial vehicle lidar snow depths within the sensor's footprint and manual snow pit measurements. Lidar observations show snow cover was highly spatially variable, with the largest snow accumulation near barriers and the least in barren fields. Additionally, we evaluate our CRNS SWE estimates using Ultra Rapid Neutron Only Simulation (URANOS) Monte Carlo simulations. Comparisons of SWE estimates derived from lidar, CRNS, and URANOS for shallow snowpack at the site yielded root mean square values of about 2 mm (approximately 30% of the mean SWE). These results suggest that the CRNS is effective at integrating over significant spatial variability within its footprint at this site. However, the spatial distribution of snow exerts a strong influence on the CRNS signal and must be considered when interpreting CRNS observations.
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    Travertine records climate-induced transformations of the Yellowstone hydrothermal system from the late Pleistocene to the present
    (Geological Society of America, 2024-02) Harrison, Lauren N.; Hurwitz, Shaul; Paces, James B.; Whitlock, Cathy; Peek, Sara; Licciardi, Joseph
    Chemical changes in hot springs, as recorded by thermal waters and their deposits, provide a window into the evolution of the postglacial hydrothermal system of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field. Today, most hydrothermal travertine forms to the north and south of the ca. 631 ka Yellowstone caldera where groundwater flow through subsurface sedimentary rocks leads to calcite saturation at hot springs. In contrast, low-Ca rhyolites dominate the subsurface within the Yellowstone caldera, resulting in thermal waters that rarely deposit travertine. We investigated the timing and origin of five small travertine deposits in the Upper and Lower Geyser Basins to understand the conditions that allowed for travertine deposition. New 230Th-U dating, oxygen (δ18O), carbon (δ13C), and strontium (87Sr/86Sr) isotopic ratios, and elemental concentrations indicate that travertine deposits within the Yellowstone caldera formed during three main episodes that correspond broadly with known periods of wet climate: 13.9−13.6 ka, 12.2−9.5 ka, and 5.2−2.9 ka. Travertine deposition occurred in response to the influx of large volumes of cold meteoric water, which increased the rate of chemical weathering of surficial sediments and recharge into the hydrothermal system. The small volume of intracaldera travertine does not support a massive postglacial surge of CO2 within the Yellowstone caldera, nor was magmatic CO2 the catalyst for postglacial travertine deposition.
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    Growth rate affects blood flow rate to the tibia of the dinosaur Maiasaura
    (Cambridge University Press, 2023-09) Seymour, Roger S.; Caldwell, Heath R.; Woodward, Holly N.; Hu, Qiaohui
    Fossil bones were once living tissues that demanded internal blood perfusion in proportion to their metabolic requirements. Metabolic rates were primarily associated with bone growth (modeling) in the juvenile stages and with alteration and repair of existing bone affected by weight bearing and locomotion (remodeling) in later stages. This study estimates blood flow rates to the tibia shafts of the Late Cretaceous hadrosaurid Maiasaura peeblesorum, based on the size of the primary nutrient foramina in fossil bones. Foramen size quantitatively reflects arterial size and hence blood flow rate. The results showed that the bone metabolic intensity of juveniles (ca. 1 year old) was greater than fourfold higher than that of 6- to 11-year-old adults. This difference is much greater than expected from standard metabolic scaling and is interpreted as a shift from the high metabolic demands for primary bone modeling in the rapidly growing juveniles to a lower metabolic demand of adults to remodel their bones for repair of microfractures accumulated during locomotion and weight bearing. Large nutrient foramina of adults indicate a high level of cursorial locomotion characteristic of tachymetabolic endotherms. The practical value of these results is that juvenile and adult stages should be treated separately in interspecific analyses of bone perfusion in relation to body mass.
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    A framework to link climate change, food security, and migration: unpacking the agricultural pathway
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-03) Tuholske, Cascade; Di Landro, Maria Agustina; Anderson, Weston; van Duijne, Robbin Jan; de Sherbinin, Alex
    Researchers have long hypothesized linkages between climate change, food security, and migration in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). One such hypothesis is the “agricultural pathway,” which postulates that negative climate change impacts on food production harm livelihoods, which triggers rural out-migration, internally or abroad. Migration is thus an adaptation to cope with the impacts of climate change and bolster livelihoods. Recent evidence suggests that the agriculture pathway is a plausible mechanism to explain climate-related migration. But direct causal connections from climate impacts on food production to livelihood loss to rural out-migration have yet to be fully established. To guide future research on the climate-food-migration nexus, we present a conceptual framework that outlines the components and linkages underpinning the agricultural pathway in LMICs. We build on established environmental-migration conceptual frameworks that have informed empirical research and deepened our understanding of complex human-environmental systems. First, we provide an overview of the conceptual framework and its connection to the agricultural pathway hypothesis in the climate mobility literature. We then outline the primary components and linkages of the conceptual framework as they pertain to LMIC contexts, highlighting current research gaps and challenges relating to the agricultural pathway. Last, we discuss possible future research directions for the climate-food-migration nexus. By highlighting the complex, multiscale, interconnected linkages that underpin the agricultural pathway, our framework unpacks the multiple causal connections that currently lie hidden in the agricultural pathway hypothesis.
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    Hazardous heat exposure among incarcerated people in the United States
    (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2024-03) Tuholske, Cascade; Lynch, Victoria D.; Spriggs, Raenita; Ahn, Yoonjung; Raymond, Colin; Nigra, Anne E.; Parks, Robbie M.
    Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of potentially hazardous heat conditions across the United States, putting the incarcerated population of 2 million at risk for heat-related health conditions. We evaluate the exposure to potentially hazardous heat for 4,078 continental US carceral facilities during 1982–2020. Results show that the number of hot days per year increased during 1982–2020 for 1,739 carceral facilities, primarily located in the southern United States. State-run carceral facilities in Texas and Florida accounted for 52% of total exposure, despite holding 12% of all incarcerated people. This highlights the urgency for enhanced infrastructure, health system interventions and treatment of incarcerated people, especially under climate change.
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