Quantifying the periodicity of Heinrich and Dansgaard–Oeschger events during Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 3

Abstract

Data from multiple ice and sediment cores in the North Atlantic show that Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) was characterized by recurring millennial-scale variations in climate, but the periodic behavior of the well-known millennial-scale variations, Heinrich events and Dansgaard–Oeschger events, is uncertain. We use oxygen isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) and North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice cores and estimated sea-surface temperature derived from a Bermuda Rise marine sediment core as climate proxies to assess the periodic behavior of Heinrich events and Dansgaard–Oeschger events using Lomb–Scargle spectral decomposition and continuous time autoregressive models. We find that continuous time autoregressive models produce less variable estimates of periodicity for Heinrich events than Lomb–Scargle methods. Heinrich events during MIS 3 are periodic with an estimated periodicity of 6.29–6.49 ka in the GISP 2 ice core, 6.71–6.76 ka in the marine sediment core, and 7.89–8.23 ka in the NGRIP core. There is insufficient evidence from these data to conclude that Dansgaard–Oeschger events exhibit a single periodicity during MIS 3. We also find that the periodic behavior of millennial-scale variations depends on the observational time frame.